About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher last week in part on the acreage reports that said that 12.5 million acres of Cotton of planted this year. The report suggested that all of the Cotton got planted and now the market is concerned about the weather. There continues to be talk of a big recession here in the US and around the world. Traders worry that the continued Chinese lockdowns will hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy in the west will hurt demand from the rest of the world. There are forecasts for hot and dry weather to return this week after some showers in West Texas and the rest of the Great Plains over the last couple of weeks. The crop conditions are better than expected after a very hot and dry period in West Texas and the rest of the western Great Plains. The Indian weather is cooler and wetter and conditions appear good. Chinese demand could become less due to the Covid lockdowns there be trimming imports due to Covid and has closed a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation. The cities and ports are shut down again as Covid returns.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolat4ed showers and near to above normal temperatures and Southeast will get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 110.02 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 15,191 bales, from 13,733 bales yesterday. ICE NY said that 19 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 128 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 90.90, 89.70, and 88.50 December, with resistance of 95.40, 99.70 and 100.80 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 28, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 232,751
: Positions :
: 46,549 14,205 52,507 45,472 150,235 73,654 5,735 218,181 222,681: 14,569 10,069
: Changes from: June 21, 2022 (Change in open interest: -3,811) :
: -10,682 -240 11,263 1,281 -14,083 -3,340 -31 -1,477 -3,091: -2,334 -720
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.0 6.1 22.6 19.5 64.5 31.6 2.5 93.7 95.7: 6.3 4.3
: Total Traders: 259 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 107 42 76 45 58 43 15 221 170:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher yesterday and trends are turning up on the charts. The fall has been dramatic since the market made new contract highs earlier this month. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures. The Florida FCOJ movement and pack report showed that inventories are more than 24% below last year. Nielsen said that 29.22 million gallons of FCOJ were sold through June 16, the lowest volume since October 2019. Volumes are now 23% below those of last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 contracts were poste for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 169.00, 161.00, and 158.00 September, with resistance at 175.00, 179.00, and 183.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 28, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 13,723 :
: Positions :
: 1,853 11,403 2,841 0 0 4,420 61 10 1,090 168 1,346 :
: Changes from: June 21, 2022 :
: 758 -499 -290 0 0 -665 0 -98 157 -157 -65 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.5 83.1 20.7 0.0 0.0 32.2 0.4 0.1 7.9 1.2 9.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 60 :
: 13 14 6 0 0 22 . . 10 . 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed lower Friday and mixed for the week, with New York a little higher and London a little lower. It seemed that recession fears hit futures once the North American trading started. Demand for Coffee overall is thought to be less as the world economic situation changes for the worse but the strong cash market means that even less Coffee is on offer. In fact, certified stocks in New York keep dropping and are becoming low. There is less Coffee on offer from origin, with Brazil offering less and Central America and Vietnam offering less as well. Temperatures are near to above normal in Brazil and there are no forecasts for frosts or freezes in the short term.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.854 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 197.50 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 224.00, 222.00, and 219.00 September, and resistance is at 236.00, 237.00 and 240.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 2040 and 2000 September. Support is at 2010, 1990, and 1960 September, and resistance is at 2060, 2090, and 2110 September,

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 28, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 241,781
: Positions :
: 31,101 11,187 63,266 82,282 151,294 56,585 9,508 233,235 235,254: 8,546 6,526
: Changes from: June 21, 2022 (Change in open interest: 3,106) :
: -2,010 1,863 1,675 7,154 -316 -3,373 -671 3,447 2,552: -341 555
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.9 4.6 26.2 34.0 62.6 23.4 3.9 96.5 97.3: 3.5 2.7
: Total Traders: 387 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 117 68 109 121 131 47 22 327 296:
——————————————————————————————————————-
DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 06/28/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
105,238 53,798 69,481 3,130 8,890 1,540
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 51.1% 66.0% 3.0% 8.4% 1.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
130 36 38 9 5 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
22,186 5,424 2,485 6,908 2,479 10,869
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
21.1% 5.2% 2.4% 6.6% 2.4% 10.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
26 17 11 10 12 17
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,322 4,070
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.1% 3.9%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower on Friday on selling that hit all pits. New York closed lower for the week, but London closed higher as White Sugar supplies and production are short right now. New York Raw Sugar and London White Sugar trends are sideways to perhaps up in London on the daily charts. India is reported to have a big crop of Sugarcane coming and as Brazil is harvesting its crop of Sugarcane and turning most of it into Ethanol but some Sugar is making it into export channels. Sugar production from these countries is expected to be surplus or at least in line with demand. Thailand is still offering and exporting. Reports from India indicated that conditions are generally good for Sugar production. The Indian weather service is predicting a normal monsoon season this year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1780 and 1720 October. Support is at 1790, 1760, and 1750 October and resistance is at 1840, 1870, and 1910 October. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 545.00 and 558.00 October. Support is at 526.00, 519.00, and 510.00 October and resistance is at 537.00, 540.00, and 544.00 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 28, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 869,216
: Positions :
: 89,001 87,395 173,964 257,175 502,401 277,985 45,714 798,125 809,474: 71,091 59,742
: Changes from: June 21, 2022 (Change in open interest: -37,606) :
: -12,718 26,354 4,612 -13,550 -71,223 -13,016 -1,963 -34,671 -42,220: -2,935 4,614
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.2 10.1 20.0 29.6 57.8 32.0 5.3 91.8 93.1: 8.2 6.9
: Total Traders: 247 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 67 55 80 69 69 39 19 216 188:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 06/28/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
80,325 31,048 66,133 8,393 1,985 3,365
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 38.7% 82.3% 10.4% 2.5% 4.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
106 32 37 7 5 7
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
23,929 2,339 2,408 3,586 130 1,029
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
29.8% 2.9% 3.0% 4.5% 0.2% 1.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
33 5 14 8 1 7
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,567 2,936
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
8.2% 3.7%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were lower on Friday and trends are still down on the daily charts on weak demand ideas. Selling came from ideas that a recession for the world is just around the corner. Reports of sun and dry weather along with very good soil moisture keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. Some very good rains were reported last week. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa for the year. The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa. Current reports from Ivory Coast indicate that the weather is a good mix of sun and rain so a good midcrop production is expected. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.560 million bags. ICE NY said that 136 contracts were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 2,356 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2300 September. Support is at 2290, 2260, and 2230 September, with resistance at 2350, 2400, and 2430 September. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1680 September. Support is at 1690, 1680, and 1650 September, with resistance at 1750, 1780, and 1790 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 28, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 354,839
: Positions :
: 54,711 71,396 91,276 128,825 146,590 65,720 33,972 340,532 343,234: 14,307 11,605
: Changes from: June 21, 2022 (Change in open interest: -1,706) :
: -2,333 -2,766 -978 2,509 2,099 -1,577 113 -2,379 -1,531: 673 -175
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.4 20.1 25.7 36.3 41.3 18.5 9.6 96.0 96.7: 4.0 3.3
: Total Traders: 260 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 77 85 84 51 36 31 21 210 182:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 06/28/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
302,235 169,390 177,932 32,802 32,233 20,207
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 56.0% 58.9% 10.9% 10.7% 6.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
148 51 46 14 7 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
20,579 19,659 15,566 10,793 985 31,803
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.8% 6.5% 5.2% 3.6% 0.3% 10.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
24 18 18 16 6 21
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
1,095 3,850
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.4% 1.3%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322