About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

MORNING SOFTS COMMENTS
Jack Scoville

DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-Jun 23
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 56.392 million pounds, in May, 3.3% below the previous
month, and 55.0% above May 2021, the U.S. Department Agriculture
said Thursday.
In thousand pounds. public
May 31 Apr 30 May 31 Apr 30 warehouse
2022 2022 2021 2021 stocks/May
pork bellies 56,392 58,331 36,391 35,204
orange juice 530,477 488,639 737,139 754,911
french fries 959,483 958,352 931,393 921,247
other potatoes 230,311 215,198 201,456 196,239
chicken rstr (whole) 14,256 12,287 14,277 14,740
ham 126,408 98,038 109,337 80,389
total pork 543,079 533,396 462,446 456,921 466,501
total beef 519,833 532,167 416,675 448,854 508,102
total red meat 1,087,944 1,092,793 907,481 937,571 998,398
total chicken 751,390 768,101 730,378 723,132
total turkey 376,079 332,513 390,655 362,510
total poultry 1,129,321 1,102,498 1,123,561 1,088,516 1,025,643
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COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was sharply lower again yesterday on demand fears and on ideas of improving weather for the new crop Cotton. There continues to be talk of a big recession here in the US and around the world. Traders worry that the continued Chinese lockdowns will hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy in the west will hurt demand from the rest of the world. There are forecasts for hot and dry weather to return this week after some showers in West Texas and the rest of the Great Plains over the last couple of weeks. The crop conditions are better than expected after a very hot and dry period in West Texas and the rest of the western Great Plains. The Indian weather is cooler and wetter and conditions appear good. There were ideas that production potential is slipping further due to the previous hot and dry weather in West Texas and the rest of the western Great Plains. Chinese demand was shown in the weekly export sales report. Chinese demand could become less due to the Covid lockdowns there be trimming imports due to Covid and has closed a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation. The cities and ports are shut down again as Covid returns.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 113.65 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 10,606 bales, from 10,606 bales yesterday. USDA said that weekly net Upland Cotton export sales were 16,200 bales this year and 277,300 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 1,300 bales this year and 0 bales next year. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with no objectives. Support is at 101.00, 100.00, and 99.00 December, with resistance of 105.00, 108.00 and 111.00 December.

DJ On-Call Cotton – Jun 23
As of Jun 17. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Jul 22 11,423 18,865 -7,442 2,082 2,641 -559
Oct 22 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 22 63,592 62,096 1,496 22,621 22,536 85
Mar 23 7,492 7,382 110 3,174 3,214 -40
May 23 6,912 6,750 162 120 120 0
Jul 23 13,203 12,590 613 44 44 0
Dec 23 4,688 4,688 0 11,293 11,094 199
Mar 24 132 0 132 0 0 0
May 24 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jul 24 0 0 0 220 220 0
Dec 24 0 0 0 249 249 0
Mar 22 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 107,442 112,371 -4,929 39,803 40,118 -315
Open Open Change
Int Int
Jul 22 16,321 40,096 -23,775
Oct 22 292 313 -21
Dec 22 127,687 121,015 6,672
Mar 23 25,483 21,900 3,583
May 23 8,050 7,380 670
Jul 23 7,563 6,906 657
Dec 23 11,378 11,183 195
Mar 24 166 166 0
May 24 27 27 0
Jul 24 36 35 1
Dec 24 80 70 10
Mar 22 2 2 0
Total 197,085 209,093 -12,008

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower again yesterday and trends are still down on the charts. The fall has been dramatic since the market made new contract highs earlier this month. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 163.00, 162.00, and 153.00 July. Support is at 166.00, 163.00, and 160.00 July, with resistance at 173.00, 177.00, and 182.00 July.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed much lower and London closed lower yesterday on what appeared to be fund related selling. There did not appear to be much news to account for the selling. Less demand for Vietnamese Coffee was hurting the London price action. Demand for Coffee overall is thought to be less as the world economic situation changes for the worse but the strong cash market means that even less Coffee is on offer. In fact, certified stocks in New York are becoming low. There is less Coffee on offer from origin, with Brazil offering less and Central America offering less as well. Temperatures are near to below normal in Brazil and there are no forecasts for frosts or freezes in the short term but the market fears that a freeze could develop.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.969 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 208.15 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 228.00, 222.00, and 219.00 September, and resistance is at 237.00, 240.00 and 242.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2060, 2030, and 2020 September, and resistance is at 2120, 2150, and 2190 September

SUGAR
General Comments: New York was lower again yesterday on ideas of bigger supplies. London also closed lower as White Sugar supplies and production are expected to increase after being short recently. New York Raw Sugar and London White Sugar trends are turning down as India is reported to have a big crop of Sugarcane coming and as Brazil is harvesting its crop of Sugarcane and turning most of it into Ethanol but some Sugar is making it into export channels. Sugar production from these countries is expected to be surplus or at least in line with demand. Thailand is still offering and exporting. Reports from India indicated that conditions are generally good for Sugar production. The Indian weather service is predicting a normal monsoon season this year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1790 and 1730 October. Support is at 1820, 1790, and 1760 October and resistance is at 1870, 1910, and 1960 October. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 534.00 and 509.00 August. Support is at 548.00, 546.00, and 536.00 August and resistance is at 565.00, 570.00, and 581.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were lower again yesterday on weak demand ideas again. Both cocoa markets are showing signs of a bottom on the daily charts. Reports of sun and dry weather along with very good soil moisture keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. Some very good rains were reported last week. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa for the year. The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa. Current reports from Ivory Coast indicate that the weather is a good mix of sun and rain so a good midcrop production is expected. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.554 million bags. ICE NY said that 786 contracts were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 786 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 2420, 2390, and 2350 September, with resistance at 2480, 2510, and 2560 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1750, 1720, and 1690 September, with resistance at 1780, 1790, and 1810 September.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322