About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Jun 23
Winnipeg — The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics
for the week ended June 19, 2022. Figures in thousands of metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Wheat Durum Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 2261.5 497.2 176.2 318.2 46.2 891.3 218.8 304.7 5067.6
Week Ago 2179.4 476.4 195.2 285.0 46.2 984.5 203.1 278.4 4975.7
Year Ago 2339.2 847.5 298.7 525.5 75.1 1689.8 373.1 90.8 6966.0
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 234.1 53.9 25.2 36.8 2.0 199.1 35.4 12.4 648.5
Week Ago 187.3 59.2 20.6 48.3 3.3 191.6 20.0 9.1 577.2
To Date 13248.1 2254.4 1730.7 3425.3 196.3 13040.2 1798.5 655.0 38901.5
Year Ago 19998.3 5571.7 2554.7 4528.4 427.0 18908.6 3497.1 355.5 59641.9
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 222.2 60.0 0.3 79.4 0.0 55.8 9.3 39.2 546.6
Week Ago 223.0 23.7 11.2 4.1 0.0 31.5 17.2 32.9 380.0
To Date 12928.6 2695.8 182.8 1962.0 27.0 5470.5 1157.0 1802.5 31520.1
Year Ago 20929.3 6517.5 572.4 3421.7 215.2 10443.5 2494.7 1407.3 52051.5
EXPORTS
This Week 106.3 33.9 24.3 5.5 0.7 94.2 0.9 40.1 378.1
Week Ago 93.0 31.6 14.2 2.5 1.5 65.5 37.6 19.2 269.1
To Date 9949.0 2288.1 1006.6 1846.2 79.3 4786.5 1185.6 1660.5 26446.1
Year Ago 17844.5 5578.8 1611.9 3671.3 297.5 9833.5 2507.7 1219.0 47298.7
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 67.2 4.2 18.9 20.2 1.2 210.8 4.4 67.0 421.5
Week Ago 63.8 8.2 18.0 17.2 1.2 222.4 5.8 63.9 430.0
To Date 3632.2 394.1 794.0 1560.6 63.4 8288.7 266.5 2496.7 19169.9
Year Ago 3578.4 499.6 710.7 999.5 55.5 9497.4 177.8 794.1 17779.8
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Jun 24
For the week ended Jun 16, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 477.8 0.0 5273.5 6173.8 4355.0 0.0
hrw 180.6 0.0 1523.2 1977.6 1248.3 0.0
srw 52.6 0.0 1037.8 1053.8 924.8 0.0
hrs 132.0 0.0 1587.2 1821.9 1258.8 0.0
white 102.6 0.0 1051.1 1285.8 848.8 0.0
durum 10.0 0.0 74.4 34.7 74.4 0.0
corn 671.9 358.4 60335.0 69532.1 10118.7 6257.7
soybeans 29.3 265.0 60238.6 61747.8 9027.2 13370.0
soymeal -8.2 42.3 11092.4 11005.9 2416.1 497.9
soyoil 1.4 0.0 684.4 675.6 81.6 0.0
upland cotton 16.2 277.3 15554.9 16021.5 4408.4 4020.3
pima cotton 1.3 0.0 479.1 820.1 63.7 53.1
sorghum 94.3 0.0 6900.7 7226.1 726.4 0.0
barley 1.6 0.0 15.3 24.8 13.9 0.0
rice 20.1 2.9 2813.9 3309.8 321.3 9.6

DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-Jun 23
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 56.392 million pounds, in May, 3.3% below the previous
month, and 55.0% above May 2021, the U.S. Department Agriculture
said Thursday.
In thousand pounds. public
May 31 Apr 30 May 31 Apr 30 warehouse
2022 2022 2021 2021 stocks/May
pork bellies 56,392 58,331 36,391 35,204
orange juice 530,477 488,639 737,139 754,911
french fries 959,483 958,352 931,393 921,247
other potatoes 230,311 215,198 201,456 196,239
chicken rstr (whole) 14,256 12,287 14,277 14,740
ham 126,408 98,038 109,337 80,389
total pork 543,079 533,396 462,446 456,921 466,501
total beef 519,833 532,167 416,675 448,854 508,102
total red meat 1,087,944 1,092,793 907,481 937,571 998,398
total chicken 751,390 768,101 730,378 723,132
total turkey 376,079 332,513 390,655 362,510
total poultry 1,129,321 1,102,498 1,123,561 1,088,516 1,025,643
===============================================================================

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday as the Winter Wheat harvest is underway. Trends are down in all three markets. What prices were lower as more reports surfaced that Russia had bombed the export terminals of Binge and Viterra in Ukraine. This news might not lead to more demand for US Wheat and weaker world cash prices took futures down. The harvest was 25% complete in Tuesday USDA data and were considered within expectations. Futures should form a harvest low earlier in the harvest due to the small crop size. Yield reports have been weakening in Kansas despite recent rains that have helped kernel size and test weight. USDA noted lower conditions for the Winter Wheat crops on Monday and noted Spring Wheat planting remained far behind average. The US western Great Plains got some rainfall and the rains fell in some of the areas most in need of some precipitation. Hot and dry weather is back for this week to southern areas while northern areas have more moderate weather. It is turning warmer and drier farther north to give hope to Spring Wheat farmers that they can plant crops. Europe is too hot and dry and India and Pakistan are both past major heat waves and dry conditions.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 868 July. Support is at 880, 863, and 851 July, with resistance at 967, 982, and 1027 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 1004, 987, and 966 July, with resistance at 1073, 1092, and 11537 July. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 1071, 1018, and 1010 July, and resistance is at 1115, 1130, and 1150 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower yesterday but held within the weekly range. The speculators have been the best sellers lately even with perceived bullish fundamental news. Ideas are that the good export sales reported last week were just a bump and reports indicate that domestic demand is a little soft, too. Growing conditions are said to be deteriorating due to hot and dry weather in Texas expanding to include Arkansas. There are still ideas of less production of US Rice this year. The emergence remains behind and acreage estimates are still down for the next crop. Some traders note that it will be difficult to move Rice at current price levels and they are worried about domestic and export demand moving forward.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1582, 1580, and 1532 July. Support is at 1594, 1591, and 1580 July and resistance is at 1641, 1661, and 1672 July.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed lower on outlooks for less hot and still dry weather for the current week and on demand concerns. Corn has emerged under what is considered good conditions but it has been hot in the Midwest. More moderate temperatures are forecast for the rest of the week and the weekend. This will be good for a while but continued hot and dry weather could hurt yields down the road. Stress could start to de4velop next week if the hot and dry weather returns as forecast. The weather was variable last week with periods of rain and cool temperatures and then warm and dry conditions and hot and dry weather is expected early this week before the temperatures moderate. Many think the top end of the yield has been taken off the Corn crop due to the delayed planting but others look at the crop condition rating and expect improved yields. It already thinks there is reduced planted area because of the March planning intentions reports from USDA and the bad planting weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 715 July. Support is at 726, 721, and 718 July, and resistance is at 755, 778, and 782 July. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 573 July Support is at 586, 563, and 542 July, and resistance is at 621, 633, and 651 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were sharply lower as warm and dry weather invades the US. The heat is passing now and it will be less hot but still dry for the rest of the week and the weekend. US cash market is still running low on Soybeans but there are still renewed Chinese lockdowns. There is less Chinese demand for Soy products due to the lockdowns there and China is starting to renew the lockdowns now as Covid cases have risen in number. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America. They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs. Most of the current buying is for next year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 1578, 1569, and 1561 July, and resistance is at 1622, 1645, and 1666 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 416.00, 404.00, and 395.00 July. Support is at 419.00, 412.00, and 408.00 July, and resistance is at 428.00 436.00, and 440.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 6610, 6420, and 6350 July, with resistance at 7000, 7200, and 7360 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher today on what was called speculative short covering. Export reports from the private sources are showing the weaker demand this month. The Indonesian government is now imposing a revised tax scheme on exporters to increase export sales and is allowing more export permits to be issued. Some analysts think Palm Oil is topping out anyway due to reduced demand ideas. Hopes for better demand from India keep the market supported, but Chinese demand could be less. A new Covid outbreak is reported in China and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports. The economy could slow down and affect demand. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was sharply lower along with other vegetable oils markets. Ideas of poor demand have hit this market as well as the others. The crops are going in the ground and the growing conditions are much improved. It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting but better planting weather is coming now as it is now much warmer. There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well. Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 863.00, 843.00, and 840.00 July, with resistance at 922.00, 9838.00, and 949.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 4500, 4460, and 4400 September, with resistance at 4860, 4980, and 5030 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry or isolated showers today. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June
105 July
175 July
58 July
140 July

July
105 July
175 July
58 July
140 July

August
107 July
170 July
60 July
130 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 23
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 987.10 35.20 Jul 2022 dn 41.80
Track Thunder Bay 939.70 95.00 Nov 2022 dn 67.40
Track Vancouver 959.70 115.00 Nov 2022 dn 67.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 24
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1277.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 1207.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1167.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1280.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1210.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1170.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1220.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 990.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 4900.00 -100.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 287.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.4)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 24
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 198,564 lots, or 11.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 6,078 6,093 5,929 5,936 6,066 5,991 -75 3,307 11,156
Sep-22 5,943 5,984 5,817 5,831 5,955 5,897 -58 164,383 149,914
Nov-22 5,843 5,893 5,776 5,782 5,877 5,830 -47 27,870 40,915
Jan-23 5,828 5,866 5,756 5,756 5,854 5,810 -44 2,881 6,164
Mar-23 5,800 5,821 5,740 5,740 5,825 5,780 -45 54 155
May-23 5,820 5,854 5,768 5,768 5,847 5,803 -44 69 208
Corn
Turnover: 680,527 lots, or 19.03 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 2,769 2,783 2,724 2,734 2,788 2,743 -45 8,245 59,221
Sep-22 2,832 2,834 2,772 2,786 2,834 2,795 -39 527,861 1,172,811
Nov-22 2,837 2,837 2,774 2,787 2,833 2,797 -36 35,065 126,597
Jan-23 2,842 2,843 2,770 2,787 2,833 2,797 -36 90,013 185,862
Mar-23 2,837 2,837 2,772 2,788 2,838 2,798 -40 16,270 88,094
May-23 2,869 2,874 2,805 2,824 2,869 2,833 -36 3,073 10,225
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,824,772 lots, or 68.50 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 3,975 3,976 3,888 3,922 4,069 3,941 -128 2,255 9,024
Aug-22 3,955 3,961 3,831 3,897 3,997 3,894 -103 65,367 149,081
Sep-22 3,850 3,853 3,722 3,783 3,891 3,787 -104 1,368,947 1,105,384
Nov-22 3,772 3,786 3,673 3,721 3,832 3,727 -105 62,117 160,928
Dec-22 3,726 3,732 3,646 3,677 3,741 3,677 -64 15,479 65,665
Jan-23 3,660 3,660 3,567 3,597 3,673 3,603 -70 273,503 504,512
Mar-23 3,525 3,532 3,470 3,489 3,559 3,494 -65 11,900 38,177
May-23 3,480 3,480 3,389 3,406 3,460 3,417 -43 25,204 62,655
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,636,605 lots, or 15.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 10,366 10,498 9,600 9,648 10,328 9,950 -378 5,620 5,390
Aug-22 9,900 10,082 9,200 9,322 9,798 9,590 -208 31,406 47,530
Sep-22 9,616 9,824 9,012 9,108 9,534 9,366 -168 1,464,874 360,700
Oct-22 9,570 9,752 8,944 9,060 9,478 9,356 -122 14,140 44,210
Nov-22 9,556 9,726 8,926 9,038 9,440 9,362 -78 14,396 34,860
Dec-22 9,506 9,694 8,910 9,000 9,392 9,290 -102 10,138 13,805
Jan-23 9,462 9,654 8,872 8,976 9,370 9,232 -138 93,270 80,468
Feb-23 9,598 9,598 9,022 9,022 9,360 9,370 10 4 90
Mar-23 9,622 9,622 8,966 9,036 9,384 9,254 -130 11 135
Apr-23 9,414 9,520 9,144 9,144 9,378 9,384 6 7 101
May-23 9,410 9,626 8,904 8,992 9,356 9,172 -184 2,732 6,707
Jun-23 9,100 9,132 9,046 9,046 9,314 9,096 -218 7 13
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,274,786 lots, or 12.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 10,466 10,638 10,158 10,158 10,466 10,454 -12 646 1,880
Aug-22 10,366 10,532 9,914 9,974 10,308 10,144 -164 14,736 64,508
Sep-22 10,288 10,440 9,824 9,888 10,226 10,122 -104 1,106,578 333,356
Nov-22 10,268 10,410 9,816 9,884 10,196 10,092 -104 26,064 66,969
Dec-22 10,240 10,372 9,784 9,848 10,152 10,038 -114 21,478 29,213
Jan-23 10,172 10,334 9,740 9,812 10,130 10,064 -66 89,335 117,858
Mar-23 10,042 10,184 9,596 9,666 9,950 9,852 -98 12,249 21,253
May-23 9,706 9,958 9,374 9,408 9,744 9,622 -122 3,700 11,915
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322