About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was sharply lower on demand fears and on ideas of improving weather for the new crop Cotton. July closed only a little lower. There continues to be talk of a big recession here in the US and around the world. Traders worry that the continued Chinese lockdowns will hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy in the west will hurt demand from the rest of the world. There are forecasts for hot and dry weather to return this week after some showers in West Texas and the rest of the Great Plains over the last couple of weeks. The crop conditions are better than expected after a very hot and dry period in West Texas and the rest of the western Great Plains. The Indian weather is cooler and wetter and conditions appear good. There were ideas that production potential is slipping further due to the previous hot and dry weather in West Texas and the rest of the western Great Plains. Chinese demand was shown in the weekly export sales report. Chinese demand could become less due to the Covid lockdowns there be trimming imports due to Covid and has closed a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation. The cities and ports are shut down again as Covid returns.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 119.02 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 10,606 bales, from 130 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 142.50, 141.90, and 139.70 July, with resistance of 147.70, 148.70 and 151.90 July.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower and trends are still down on the charts. The fall has been dramatic since the market made new contract highs earlier this month. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 163.00, 162.00, and 153.00 July. Support is at 166.00, 163.00, and 160.00 July, with resistance at 177.00, 182.00, and 185.00 July.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London both closed higher yesterday as the US Dollar was lower and very high cash market differentials are still reported. Less demand for Vietnamese Coffee was hurting the London price action. Demand for Coffee overall is thought to be less as the world economic situation changes for the worse but the strong cash market means that even less Coffee is on offer. In fact, certified stocks in New York are becoming low. There is less Coffee on offer from origin, with Brazil offering less and Central America offering less as well. Temperatures are near to below normal in Brazil and there are no forecasts for frosts or freezes in the short term but the market fears that a freeze could develop.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.981 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 208.15 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up wit4h objectives of 237.00 and 245.00 September. Support is at 229.00, 228.00, and 222.00 September, and resistance is at 240.00, 242.00 and 249.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2160 September. Support is at 2080, 2060, and 2030 September, and resistance is at 2120, 2150, and 2190 September

SUGAR
General Comments: New York was lower yesterday on ideas of bigger supplies. London closed lower as White Sugar supplies and production are expected to increase after being short recently. New York Raw Sugar and London White Sugar trends are turning down as India is reported to have a big crop of Sugarcane coming and as Brazil is harvesting its crop of Sugarcane and turning most of it into Ethanol but some Sugar is making it into export channels. Sugar production from these countries is expected to be surplus or at least in line with demand. Thailand is still offering and exporting. Reports from India indicated that conditions are generally good for Sugar production. The Indian weather service is predicting a normal monsoon season this year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1830 and 1790 October. Support is at 1850, 1820, and 1790 October and resistance is at 1920, 1960, and 1990 October. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 534.00 and 509.00 August. Support is at 548.00, 546.00, and 536.00 August and resistance is at 565.00, 570.00, and 581.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were lower on weak demand ideas again. The US Dollar was lower again and demand ideas are weak, but both cocoa markets are showing signs of a bottom on the daily charts. Reports of sun and dry weather along with very good soil moisture keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. Some very good rains were reported last week. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa for the year. The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa. Current reports from Ivory Coast indicate that the weather is a good mix of sun and rain so a good midcrop production is expected. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.504 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2420 July. Support is at 2370, 2340, and 2300 July, with resistance at 2420, 2450, and 2470 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1760 and 1800 July. Support is at 1720, 1690, and 1680 July, with resistance at 1770, 1790, and 1810 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322