About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Global Grain Production Expected to Fall in 2022-23
By Yusuf Khan
The forecast for global grain production in 2022-23 is expected to fall slightly on lower wheat and corn output, the International Grains Council said Thursday.
Just over 2.25 billion metric tons of grain are expected to be produced in 2022-23, 4 million tons higher than was previously estimated by the IGC. However, this still represents a slight dip in output compared with 2021-22, with 2.29 billion tons expected to be produced globally.
The reduction in Black Sea exports amid the war in Ukraine also mean production in the current year will likely outpace consumption, with end-season stocks projected to increase by 1% to 607 million tons–the first rise since 2016-17.
Meanwhile, global grain consumption for 2022-23 has been revised higher from the Council’s May report with 2.28 billion tons now required, up by roughly 1 billion tons. This is still lower than this year’s projection by 6 billion tons.
“With a comparatively sharper drop in supply, world carryovers are set to tighten, placed 4% down, at 583 million tons,” the IGC said. “Assuming continued difficult Black Sea logistics, world trade could drop by a further 3%, to 405 million tons.”
Soybean output in South America is expected to rise in 2022-23, having slipped in the current season, on “acreage gains and a recovery in yields.”
Global rice production is also expected to hit a record 518 million tons in 2022-23, though consumption is also expected to hit a new peak due to population growth.

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mostly lower yesterday as the Winter Wheat harvest is underway. Only a few nearby months of Chicago Wheat managed to close higher. What prices shot higher in early trading as reports surfaced that Russia had bombed the export terminals of Binge and Viterra in Ukraine. The realization that this news might not lead to more demand for US Wheat and weaker world cash prices took futures down for the rest of the day. The harvest was 25% complete in Tuesday USDA data and were considered within expectations. Futures should form a harvest low earlier in the harvest due to the small crop size. Yield reports have been weakening in Kansas despite recent rains that have helped kernel size and test weight. USDA noted lower conditions for the Winter Wheat crops on Monday and noted Spring Wheat planting remained far behind average. The US western Great Plains got some rainfall and the rains fell in some of the areas most in need of some precipitation. Hot and dry weather is back for this week to southern areas while northern areas have more moderate weather. It is turning warmer and drier farther north to give hope to Spring Wheat farmers that they can plant crops. Europe is too hot and dry and India and Pakistan are both past major heat waves and dry conditions.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 949 and 868 July. Support is at 960, 943, and 851 July, with resistance at 1027, 1044, and 1085 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 1079 and 1008 July. Support is at 1026, 1004, and 987 July, with resistance at 1092, 1132, and 1153 July. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 1083 July. Support is at 1096, 1071, and 1018 July, and resistance is at 1150, 1170, and 1190 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher yesterday after trading lower early in the day. It became a reversal type of trade with the late rally. Ideas are that the good export sales reported last week were just a bump and reports indicate that domestic demand is a little soft, too. Growing conditions are said to be deteriorating due to hot and dry weather in Texas expanding to include Arkansas. There are still ideas of less production of US Rice this year. The emergence remains behind and acreage estimates are still down for the next crop. Some traders note that it will be difficult to move Rice at current price levels and they are worried about domestic and export demand moving forward.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1582, 1580, and 1532 July. Support is at 1601, 1594, and 1591 July and resistance is at 1641, 1661, and 1672 July.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed mostly lower on outlooks for less hot and still dry weather for the current week. July was higher as some demand for Corn must have surfaced. Corn has emerged under what is considered good conditions but it has been hot in the Midwest. More moderate temperatures are forecast for the rest of the week and the weekend. This will be good for a while but continued hot and dry weather could hurt yields down the road. Stress could start to de4velop next week if the hot and dry weather returns as forecast. The weather was variable last week with periods of rain and cool temperatures and then warm and dry conditions and hot and dry weather is expected early this week before the temperatures moderate. Many think the top end of the yield has been taken off the Corn crop due to the delayed planting but others look at the crop condition rating and expect improved yields. It already thinks there is reduced planted area because of the March planning intentions reports from USDA and the bad planting weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 752, 726, and 721 July, and resistance is at 778, 782, and 800 July. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 601, 598, and 573 July Support is at 607, 597, and 586 July, and resistance is at 633, 651, and 655 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower as hot and dry weather invades the US. The heat is passing now and it will be less hot but still dry for the rest of the week. US cash market is still running low on Soybeans but there are still renewed Chinese lockdowns. There is less Chinese demand for Soy products due to the lockdowns there and China is starting to renew the lockdowns now as Covid cases have risen in number. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America. They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs. Most of the current buying is for next year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1608 July. Support is at 1645, 1640, and 1632 July, and resistance is at 1682, 1692, and 1701 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 442.00 July. Support is at 427.00, 425.00, and 419.00 July, and resistance is at 440.00 450.00, and 461.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 6910 July. Support is at 7000, 6810, and 6750 July, with resistance at 7440, 7510, and 7680 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher today on what was called speculative short covering. Export reports from the private sources are showing the weaker demand this month. The Indonesian government is now imposing a revised tax scheme on exporters to increase export sales and is allowing more export permits to be issued. Some analysts think Palm Oil is topping out anyway due to reduced demand ideas. Hopes for better demand from India keep the market supported, but Chinese demand could be less. A new Covid outbreak is reported in China and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports. The economy could slow down and affect demand. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was sharply lower along with other vegetable oils markets. Ideas of poor demand have hit this market as well as the others. The crops are going in the ground and the growing conditions are much improved. It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting but better planting weather is coming now as it is now much warmer. There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well. Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 926.00, 922.00, and 893.00 July, with resistance at 959.00, 980.00, and 995.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 4460, 4400, and 4360 September, with resistance at 4710, 4860, and 4980 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry or isolated showers today. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June
105 July
175 July
58 July
140 July

July
105 July
175 July
58 July
140 July

August
107 July
170 July
60 July
130 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 22
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 1,028.90 26.80 Jul 2022 dn 8.90
Track Thunder Bay 1,007.10 95.00 Nov 2022 dn 41.80
Track Vancouver 1,027.10 115.00 Nov 2022 dn 41.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 23
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1287.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 1197.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1172.50 +45.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1290.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1200.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1175.00 +45.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1230.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1010.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 5000.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 292.00 +02.00 Unquoted – – \
($1=MYR4.404)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 23
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 158,873 lots, or 9.44 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 6,078 6,101 6,031 6,048 6,138 6,066 -72 5,335 11,939
Sep-22 6,012 6,012 5,910 5,943 6,063 5,955 -108 125,804 135,031
Nov-22 5,919 5,919 5,853 5,858 5,965 5,877 -88 25,480 37,884
Jan-23 5,892 5,892 5,828 5,831 5,924 5,854 -70 2,134 5,055
Mar-23 5,848 5,849 5,805 5,818 5,906 5,825 -81 58 129
May-23 5,831 5,876 5,831 5,843 5,898 5,847 -51 62 190
Corn
Turnover: 828,386 lots, or 2.35 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 2,808 2,815 2,755 2,778 2,818 2,788 -30 27,130 60,496
Sep-22 2,858 2,864 2,807 2,829 2,872 2,834 -38 627,915 1,168,201
Nov-22 2,855 2,865 2,806 2,833 2,879 2,833 -46 40,067 125,744
Jan-23 2,836 2,865 2,806 2,838 2,874 2,833 -41 114,194 178,430
Mar-23 2,862 2,866 2,809 2,839 2,882 2,838 -44 16,015 87,241
May-23 2,889 2,901 2,840 2,874 2,913 2,869 -44 3,065 9,903
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,679,167 lots, or 10.32 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 4,171 4,179 3,912 3,975 4,200 4,069 -131 5,895 10,126
Aug-22 4,140 4,156 3,877 3,956 4,179 3,997 -182 90,350 157,281
Sep-22 4,025 4,050 3,770 3,850 4,076 3,891 -185 1,998,717 1,151,757
Nov-22 3,932 3,965 3,709 3,781 3,980 3,832 -148 103,064 154,816
Dec-22 3,843 3,877 3,650 3,731 3,884 3,741 -143 27,417 62,330
Jan-23 3,755 3,791 3,570 3,642 3,805 3,673 -132 393,521 476,266
Mar-23 3,633 3,661 3,464 3,525 3,670 3,559 -111 20,656 35,790
May-23 3,525 3,541 3,387 3,441 3,553 3,460 -93 39,547 61,602
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,304,399 lots, or 12.43 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 10,300 10,554 10,130 10,308 10,886 10,328 -558 4,770 6,099
Aug-22 9,692 9,956 9,612 9,858 10,192 9,798 -394 29,164 49,870
Sep-22 9,450 9,666 9,362 9,606 9,950 9,534 -416 1,144,692 352,277
Oct-22 9,500 9,598 9,314 9,556 9,886 9,478 -408 11,949 42,981
Nov-22 9,478 9,558 9,290 9,518 9,864 9,440 -424 13,573 32,917
Dec-22 9,288 9,520 9,252 9,472 9,784 9,392 -392 8,937 12,593
Jan-23 9,276 9,510 9,236 9,442 9,714 9,370 -344 89,633 80,223
Feb-23 9,344 9,450 9,268 9,418 9,800 9,360 -440 38 91
Mar-23 9,370 9,482 9,224 9,416 9,834 9,384 -450 43 134
Apr-23 9,346 9,430 9,306 9,382 9,756 9,378 -378 22 102
May-23 9,200 9,472 9,200 9,404 9,658 9,356 -302 1,574 6,995
Jun-23 9,330 9,330 9,298 9,316 9,550 9,314 -236 4 7
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,093,478 lots, or 11.17 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 10,748 10,748 10,336 10,424 11,026 10,466 -560 1,254 2,424
Aug-22 10,386 10,464 10,164 10,296 10,802 10,308 -494 14,112 66,556
Sep-22 10,152 10,374 10,082 10,238 10,650 10,226 -424 930,004 333,566
Nov-22 10,194 10,334 10,078 10,230 10,594 10,196 -398 23,676 64,567
Dec-22 10,172 10,298 10,040 10,178 10,538 10,152 -386 20,238 26,245
Jan-23 10,100 10,266 10,004 10,152 10,472 10,130 -342 90,267 113,318
Mar-23 9,874 10,106 9,840 9,990 10,316 9,950 -366 11,606 19,482
May-23 9,748 9,866 9,582 9,716 10,030 9,744 -286 2,321 11,773
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322