About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Crop Progress
Date 19-Jun 612/2022 2021 Avg
Cotton Planted 96 90 95 95
Cotton Squaring 22 14 20 23
Cotton Setting Bolls 6 4 4
Corn Emerged 95 88 99 95
Soybeans Planted 94 88 97 93
Soybeans Emerged 83 78 90 84
Sorghum Planted 80 66 86 85
Sorghum Headed 15 13 16 17
Rice Headed 5 3 5
Peanuts Planted 97 94 95 97
Peanuts Pegging 18 3 20 28
Sunflowers Planted 81 61 98 86
Oats Emerged 95 88 100 98
Oats Headed 42 32 61 54
Winter Wheat Headed 91 86 95 95
Winter Wheat Harvested 25 10 15 22
Spring Wheat Planted 98 94 100 100
Spring Wheat Emerged 89 72 98 97
Barley Emerged 96 87 98 96
Barley Headed 8 17 13

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 8 18 34 36 4
Cotton Last Week 3 16 35 41 5
Cotton Last Year 1 5 42 43 9

Corn This Week 1 5 24 57 13
Corn Last Week 1 4 23 59 13
Corn Last Year 1 5 29 54 11

Soybeans This Week 1 5 26 58 10
Soybeans Last Week 1 4 25 59 11
Soybeans Last Year 2 7 31 51 9

Winter Wheat This Week 23 20 27 25 5
Winter Wheat Last Week 24 18 27 26 5
Winter Wheat Last Year 6 14 31 41 8

Spring Wheat This Week 1 5 35 52 7
Spring Wheat Last Week 2 7 37 49 5
Spring Wheat Last Year 15 22 36 25 2

Sorghum This Week 5 10 39 43 3
Sorghum Last Week 6 8 39 45 2
Sorghum Last Year 1 2 24 61 12

Rice This Week 0 1 27 58 14
Rice Last Week 0 1 26 57 16
Rice Last Year 1 3 22 59 15

Peanuts This Week 1 6 27 59 7
Peanuts Last Week 1 7 21 63 8
Peanuts Last Year 1 3 27 57 12

Oats This Week 11 9 20 53 7
Oats Last Week 12 9 21 51 7
Oats Last Year 6 18 37 34 5

Barley This Week 5 14 30 45 6
Barley Last Week 6 15 30 42 7
Barley Last Year 8 17 36 32 7

Pastures and Ranges This Week 19 23 27 28 3
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 18 24 27 27 4
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 18 21 29 26 6

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was sharply lower on demand fears. Traders worry that the continued Chinese lockdowns will hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy in the west will hurt demand from the rest of the world. There are forecasts for hot and dry weather to return this week after some showers in West Texas and the rest of the Great Plains over the last couple of weeks. The crop conditions are better than expected after a very hot and dry period in West Texas and the rest of the western Great Plains. The Indian weather is cooler and wetter and conditions appear good. There were ideas that production potential is slipping further due to the previous hot and dry weather in West Texas and the rest of the western Great Plains. Chinese demand was shown in the weekly export sales report. Chinese demand could become less due to the Covid lockdowns there be trimming imports due to Covid and has closed a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation. The cities and ports are shut down again as Covid returns.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 125.02 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 130 bales, from 130 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 142.50, 141.90, and 139.70 July, with resistance of 147.70, 148.70 and 151.90 July.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little lower and trends are still down on the charts. The fall has been dramatic since the market made new contract highs earlier this month. There are concerns that another freeze in Brazil could develop but there is nothing in the forecast for now. The market is short Oranges and short juice production but is also worried about domestic demand destruction. US production is 11% below last year but higher than initial USDA projections but the data appears to be part of the price now. The greening disease has taken its toll on the US crop and the previous Brazil crop was down significantly due to drought. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 163.00, 162.00, and 153.00 July. Support is at 166.00, 163.00, and 160.00 July, with resistance at 177.00, 182.00, and 185.00 July.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London both closed higher yesterday as the US Dollar was lower and very high cash market differentials are reported. Less demand for Vietnamese Coffee was hurting the London price action. Demand for Coffee overall is thought to be less as the world economic situation changes for the worse but the strong cash market means that even less Coffee is on offer. In fact, certified stocks in New York are becoming low. Temperatures are near to below normal in Brazil and there are no forecasts for frosts or freezes in the short term but the market fears that a freeze could develop.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.981 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 206.43 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up wit4h objectives of 240.00, 242.00, and 252.00 September. Support is at 228.00, 222.00, and 219.00 September, and resistance is at 237.00, 240.00 and 245.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2100, 2150, and 2160 September. Support is at 2080, 2060, and 2030 September, and resistance is at 2120, 2150, and 2190 September

SUGAR
General Comments: New York was a little higher yesterday on ideas of bigger supplies as Brazil has changed its tax regimen again and this time to promote the production of Ethanol. London closed lower as White Sugar supplies and production are expected to increase after being short recently. London White Sugar has been better supported but remains in a sideways range as India has limited exports of White Sugar to 10 million tons for the current marketing year and as Brazil is harvesting its crop of Sugarcane and turning most of it into Ethanol but some Sugar is making it into export channels. However, Sugar production from these countries is expected to be surplus or at least in line with demand. Thailand is still offering and exporting. Reports from India indicated that conditions are generally good for Sugar production. The Indian weather service is predicting a normal monsoon season this year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1870, 1850, and 1820 October and resistance is at 1920, 1960, and 1990 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 555.00, 548.00, and 546.00 August and resistance is at 570.00, 581.00, and 587.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were higher as currency moves caused most of the movement in Cocoa. The US Dollar was lower again and demand ideas are weak, but both cocoa markets are showing signs of a bottom on the daily charts. Reports of sun and dry weather along with very good soil moisture keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. Some very good rains were reported last week. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa for the year. The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa. Current reports from Ivory Coast indicate that the weather is a good mix of sun and rain so a good midcrop production is expected. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.476 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2420 July. Support is at 2340, 2300, and 2240 July, with resistance at 2400, 2450, and 2470 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1680, 1650, and 1630 July, with resistance at 1740, 1770, and 1790 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322