About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jun 21
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED
AND WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JUN 16, 2022
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 06/16/2022 06/09/2022 06/17/2021 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 73 0 783
CORN 1,184,268 1,221,332 1,775,716 46,162,509 55,995,028
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0 0
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 0 0
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 71,415 140,248 18,378 6,540,435 6,441,292
SOYBEANS 427,344 608,116 205,645 50,903,522 57,254,057
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 2,260 240
WHEAT 331,328 411,916 554,712 969,953 1,249,142
Total 2,014,355 2,381,612 2,554,524 104,578,679 120,940,542
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

Crop Progress
Date 19-Jun 612/2022 2021 Avg
Cotton Planted 96 90 95 95
Cotton Squaring 22 14 20 23
Cotton Setting Bolls 6 4 4
Corn Emerged 95 88 99 95
Soybeans Planted 94 88 97 93
Soybeans Emerged 83 78 90 84
Sorghum Planted 80 66 86 85
Sorghum Headed 15 13 16 17
Rice Headed 5 3 5
Peanuts Planted 97 94 95 97
Peanuts Pegging 18 3 20 28
Sunflowers Planted 81 61 98 86
Oats Emerged 95 88 100 98
Oats Headed 42 32 61 54
Winter Wheat Headed 91 86 95 95
Winter Wheat Harvested 25 10 15 22
Spring Wheat Planted 98 94 100 100
Spring Wheat Emerged 89 72 98 97
Barley Emerged 96 87 98 96
Barley Headed 8 17 13

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 8 18 34 36 4
Cotton Last Week 3 16 35 41 5
Cotton Last Year 1 5 42 43 9

Corn This Week 1 5 24 57 13
Corn Last Week 1 4 23 59 13
Corn Last Year 1 5 29 54 11

Soybeans This Week 1 5 26 58 10
Soybeans Last Week 1 4 25 59 11
Soybeans Last Year 2 7 31 51 9

Winter Wheat This Week 23 20 27 25 5
Winter Wheat Last Week 24 18 27 26 5
Winter Wheat Last Year 6 14 31 41 8

Spring Wheat This Week 1 5 35 52 7
Spring Wheat Last Week 2 7 37 49 5
Spring Wheat Last Year 15 22 36 25 2

Sorghum This Week 5 10 39 43 3
Sorghum Last Week 6 8 39 45 2
Sorghum Last Year 1 2 24 61 12

Rice This Week 0 1 27 58 14
Rice Last Week 0 1 26 57 16
Rice Last Year 1 3 22 59 15

Peanuts This Week 1 6 27 59 7
Peanuts Last Week 1 7 21 63 8
Peanuts Last Year 1 3 27 57 12

Oats This Week 11 9 20 53 7
Oats Last Week 12 9 21 51 7
Oats Last Year 6 18 37 34 5

Barley This Week 5 14 30 45 6
Barley Last Week 6 15 30 42 7
Barley Last Year 8 17 36 32 7

Pastures and Ranges This Week 19 23 27 28 3
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 18 24 27 27 4
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 18 21 29 26 6

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were sharply lower again yesterday as the Winter Wheat harvest is underway. The harvest was 25% complete in Tuesday USDA data and were considered within expectations. Futures should form a harvest low earlier in the harvest due to the small crop size. Yield reports have been OK in Kansas as recent rains have helped kernel size and test weight. USDA noted lower conditions for the Winter Wheat crops on Monday and noted Spring Wheat planting remained far behind average. The US western Great Plains got some rainfall and the rains fell in some of the areas most in need of some precipitation. Hot and dry weather could return this week. It is turning warmer and drier farther north to give hope to Spring Wheat farmers that they can plant crops. Europe is too hot and dry and India and Pakistan are both past major heat waves and dry conditions.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 949 and 868 July. Support is at 1967, 943, and 851 July, with resistance at 1022, 1044, and 1085 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 1079 and 1008 July. Support is at 1056, 1050, and 1033 July, with resistance at 1092, 1132, and 1153 July. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 1141 and 1083 July. Support is at 0963, 1071, and 1018 July, and resistance is at 1170, 1190, and 1199 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower again yesterday and trends are still turning down on the charts. Traders are mostly worried about demand even with good export sales last week. Ideas are that the good sales were just a bump and reports indicate that domestic demand is a little soft, too. Growing conditions are said to be deteriorating due to hot and dry weather in Texas expanding to include Arkansas. There are still ideas of less production of US Rice this year. The emergence remains behind and acreage estimates are still down for the next crop. Some traders note that it will be difficult to move Rice at current price levels and they are worried about domestic and export demand moving forward.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1582, 1580, and 1532 July. Support is at 1608, 1603, and 1594 July and resistance is at 1641, 1661, and 1672 July.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jun 22
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 15.43 9.77 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 15.21 10.38 0.00
Brokens 9.79 —- —-

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed lower on demand concerns and on outlooks for less hot and still dry weather for the current week. Corn has emerged under what is considered good conditions but it has turned hot in the Midwest. This will be good for a while but continued hot and dry weather could hurt yields down the road. Stress could start to de4velop next week if the hot and dry weather returns as forecast. The weather was variable last week with periods of rain and cool temperatures and then warm and dry conditions and hot and dry weather is expected early this week before the temperatures moderate. Many think the top end of the yield has been taken off the Corn crop due to the delayed planting but others look at the crop condition rating and expect improved yields. It already thinks there is reduced planted area because of the March planning intentions reports from USDA and the bad planting weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 726, 721, and 7515 July, and resistance is at 778, 782, and 800 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 623, 601, and 598 July Support is at 632, 625, and 607 July, and resistance is at 663, 674, and 695 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower as hot and dry weather invades the US. The heat is passing now and it will be less hot but still dry for the rest of the week. US cash market is still running low on Soybeans and there are still renewed Chinese lockdowns. There is less Chinese demand for Soy products due to the lockdowns there and China is starting to renew the lockdowns now as Covid cases have risen in number. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America. They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs. Most of the current buying is for next year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1661, 1654, and 1608 July. Support is at 1674, 1645, and 1640 July, and resistance is at 1701, 1724, and 1729 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 442.00 July. Support is at 425.00, 419.00, and 412.00 July, and resistance is at 441.00 450.00, and 461.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 7130 and 6910 July. Support is at 7000, 6810, and 6750 July, with resistance at 7440, 7510, and 7680 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower today on ideas of weaker demand. Export reports from the private sources are showing the weaker demand this month. The Indonesian government is now imposing a revised tax scheme on exporters to increase export sales and is allowing more export permits to be issued. Some analysts think Palm Oil is topping out anyway due to reduced demand ideas. Hopes for better demand from India keep the market supported, but Chinese demand could be less. A new Covid outbreak is reported in China and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports. The economy could slow down and affect demand. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was lower along with other vegetable oils markets. The crops are going in the ground and the growing conditions are much improved. It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting but better planting weather is coming now as it is now much warmer. There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well. Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 980.00 July. Support is at 986.00, 967.00, and 959.00 July, with resistance at 1032.00, 1040.00, and 1068.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 4840, 4760, and 4710 September, with resistance at 5270, 5350, and 5600 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry or isolated showers today. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June
105 July
175 July
58 July
140 July

July
105 July
175 July
58 July
140 July

August
107 July
170 July
60 July
130 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 20
Compiled by Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 1,075.30 27.50 Jul 2022 dn 22.80
Track Thunder Bay 1,057.80 37.50 Nov 2022 dn 37.50
Track Vancouver 1,077.80 115.00 Nov 2022 dn 37.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 22
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1287.50 -75.00 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 1197.50 -70.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1127.50 -85.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1290.00 -75.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1200.00 -70.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1130.00 -85.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1250.00 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1035.00 -55.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 5000.00 -300.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 290.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.403)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 22
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 133,757 lots, or 8.10 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 6,163 6,178 6,100 6,100 6,150 6,138 -12 12,018 13,193
Sep-22 6,083 6,109 6,011 6,012 6,104 6,063 -41 105,238 124,413
Nov-22 5,971 5,997 5,927 5,937 5,975 5,965 -10 15,103 35,616
Jan-23 5,926 5,960 5,899 5,899 5,941 5,924 -17 1,315 4,720
Mar-23 5,925 5,928 5,880 5,880 5,893 5,906 13 16 106
May-23 5,900 5,913 5,888 5,890 5,903 5,898 -5 67 169
Corn
Turnover: 727,743 lots, or 20.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 2,846 2,846 2,805 2,808 2,844 2,818 -26 29,336 70,941
Sep-22 2,892 2,898 2,851 2,857 2,895 2,872 -23 556,486 1,218,932
Nov-22 2,906 2,908 2,846 2,855 2,903 2,879 -24 30,669 124,094
Jan-23 2,915 2,916 2,843 2,847 2,910 2,874 -36 97,149 183,541
Mar-23 2,910 2,914 2,839 2,850 2,912 2,882 -30 11,899 86,429
May-23 2,950 2,950 2,879 2,888 2,946 2,913 -33 2,204 9,461
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,467,847 lots, or 5.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 4,221 4,267 4,153 4,159 4,232 4,200 -32 6,292 14,186
Aug-22 4,185 4,248 4,123 4,126 4,201 4,179 -22 58,683 165,522
Sep-22 4,090 4,146 4,022 4,025 4,105 4,076 -29 1,103,396 1,221,864
Nov-22 3,992 4,044 3,936 3,939 4,022 3,980 -42 66,386 151,615
Dec-22 3,902 3,948 3,846 3,850 3,935 3,884 -51 8,556 59,585
Jan-23 3,838 3,863 3,756 3,759 3,844 3,805 -39 190,171 430,875
Mar-23 3,697 3,724 3,631 3,633 3,715 3,670 -45 12,786 34,097
May-23 3,569 3,594 3,519 3,523 3,586 3,553 -33 21,577 58,364
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,113,008 lots, or 11.07 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 10,652 11,282 10,470 10,530 10,652 10,886 234 8,488 6,340
Aug-22 10,150 10,518 9,928 9,982 10,220 10,192 -28 47,495 51,484
Sep-22 10,000 10,194 9,668 9,712 10,060 9,950 -110 949,512 341,365
Oct-22 9,966 10,084 9,614 9,640 10,018 9,886 -132 11,874 42,256
Nov-22 9,936 10,044 9,576 9,606 10,022 9,864 -158 12,533 32,647
Dec-22 9,878 9,986 9,510 9,540 9,972 9,784 -188 7,946 11,903
Jan-23 9,802 9,926 9,470 9,512 9,944 9,714 -230 72,991 78,878
Feb-23 9,788 9,826 9,788 9,826 9,954 9,800 -154 6 108
Mar-23 9,826 9,852 9,678 9,678 9,914 9,834 -80 29 153
Apr-23 9,818 9,828 9,696 9,700 9,982 9,756 -226 21 106
May-23 9,788 9,874 9,458 9,522 9,916 9,658 -258 2,113 7,095
Jun-23 – – – 9,550 9,834 9,550 -284 0 6
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 984,568 lots, or 10.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 11,146 11,146 10,644 10,660 11,196 11,026 -170 1,295 2,895
Aug-22 10,906 11,016 10,460 10,486 11,022 10,802 -220 12,644 68,645
Sep-22 10,836 10,864 10,342 10,372 10,924 10,650 -274 844,983 342,139
Nov-22 10,736 10,782 10,308 10,336 10,880 10,594 -286 20,482 62,229
Dec-22 10,702 10,724 10,252 10,268 10,836 10,538 -298 17,864 24,242
Jan-23 10,614 10,652 10,194 10,224 10,770 10,472 -298 71,211 103,174
Mar-23 10,436 10,472 10,026 10,046 10,576 10,316 -260 13,550 18,166
May-23 10,158 10,200 9,766 9,806 10,286 10,030 -256 2,539 11,207
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322