About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little lower in choppy trading last week. The Fed raised interest rates by 0.75% this week in an effort to control inflation and there has been talk that the Fed will raise them even more and cause some lost economic opportunity and lost Cotton business.. There are forecasts for hot and dry weather to return this week after some showers in West Texas and the rest of the Great Plains over the last couple of weeks. The crop conditions are better than expected after a very hot and dry period in West Texas and the rest of the western Great Plains. The Indian weather is cooler and wetter and conditions appear good. There were ideas that production potential is slipping further due to the previous hot and dry weather in West Texas and the rest of the western Great Plains. Chinese demand was shown in the weekly export sales report. Chinese demand could become less due to the Covid lockdowns there be trimming imports due to Covid and has closed a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation. The cities and ports are shut down again as Covid returns.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 129.50 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 130 bales, from 1,087 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 142.50, 141.90, and 139.70 July, with resistance of 147.70, 148.70 and 151.90 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 14, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 243,439
: Positions :
: 58,292 14,021 38,553 48,860 174,482 78,299 6,200 224,004 233,256: 19,436 10,183
: Changes from: June 7, 2022 (Change in open interest: -39,720) :
: 578 1,477 -33,061 -9,917 -4,749 1,827 -4,420 -40,573 -40,753: 852 1,033
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 23.9 5.8 15.8 20.1 71.7 32.2 2.5 92.0 95.8: 8.0 4.2
: Total Traders: 264 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 117 40 65 44 56 43 15 222 162:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower last week and trends are down on the charts. The fall has been dramatic since the market made new contract highs in the previous week. There are concerns that another freeze in Brazil could develop but there is nothing in the forecast for now. The market is short Oranges and short juice production but is also worried about domestic demand destruction. US production is 11% below last year but higher than initial USDA projections but the data appears to be part of the price now. The greening disease has taken its toll on the US crop and the previous Brazil crop was down significantly due to drought. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 163.00, 162.00, and 153.00 July. Support is at 166.00, 163.00, and 160.00 July, with resistance at 182.00, 185.00, and 187.00 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 14, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 15,827 :
: Positions :
: 1,017 12,114 3,219 0 6 5,277 61 384 900 335 2,186 :
: Changes from: June 7, 2022 :
: 131 439 34 -14 -53 308 0 -146 -24 92 -98 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.4 76.5 20.3 0.0 0.0 33.3 0.4 2.4 5.7 2.1 13.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 67 :
: 14 18 6 0 . 24 . 6 7 8 7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London both closed a little lower last week as the US Dollar remains high but very high cash market differentials are supportive to prices. Less demand for Vietnamese Coffee was hurting the London price action. Demand for Coffee overall is thought to be less as the world economic situation changes for the worse but the strong cash market means that even less Coffee is on offer. Temperatures are near to below normal in Brazil and there are no forecasts for frosts or freezes in the short term but the market fears that a freeze could develop.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.991 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 202.72 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up wit4h objectives of 240.00, 242.00, and 252.00 July. Support is at 228.00, 222.00, and 219.00 July, and resistance is at 235.00, 237.00 and 240.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2100, 2150, and 2160 July. Support is at 2050, 2020, and 1990 July, and resistance is at 2110, 2120, and 2170 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 14, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 244,543
: Positions :
: 29,459 8,801 63,672 81,529 152,994 60,607 11,227 235,267 236,693: 9,276 7,850
: Changes from: June 7, 2022 (Change in open interest: -29,267) :
: -3,998 962 -16,800 -7,913 -11,383 -177 -2,715 -28,888 -29,936: -379 669
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.0 3.6 26.0 33.3 62.6 24.8 4.6 96.2 96.8: 3.8 3.2
: Total Traders: 365 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 104 61 108 118 129 45 20 317 279:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 06/14/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
121,337 64,076 80,176 2,899 13,088 1,962
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 52.8% 66.1% 2.4% 10.8% 1.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
128 41 38 9 5 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
26,709 4,431 1,571 4,704 1,737 13,099
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
22.0% 3.7% 1.3% 3.9% 1.4% 10.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
30 15 13 10 7 14
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,317 5,273
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.2% 4.3%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York was a little lower last week on ideas of bigger supplies as Brazil has changed its tax regimen to promote the production of Sugar over Ethanol and London closed lower as White Sugar supplies and production are expected to increase after being short recently. London White Sugar has been better supported but remains in a sideways range as India has limited exports of White Sugar to 10 million tons for the current marketing year and as Brazil is harvesting its crop of Sugarcane and turning most of it into Ethanol but some Sugar is making it into export channels. However, Sugar production from these countries is expected to be surplus or at least in line with demand. Thailand is still offering and exporting. Reports from India indicated that conditions are generally good for Sugar production. The Indian weather service is predicting a normal monsoon season this year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1850, 1830, and 1790 October and resistance is at 1900, 1920, and 1960 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 555.00, 548.00, and 546.00 August and resistance is at 570.00, 581.00, and 587.00 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 14, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 964,793
: Positions :
: 102,656 59,837 200,836 280,814 592,614 295,073 54,436 879,379 907,722: 85,413 57,071
: Changes from: June 7, 2022 (Change in open interest: -36,937) :
: -20,532 9,871 -12,035 2,797 -37,533 1,828 603 -27,943 -39,094: -8,995 2,157
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.6 6.2 20.8 29.1 61.4 30.6 5.6 91.1 94.1: 8.9 5.9
: Total Traders: 245 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 77 42 83 69 76 39 18 217 190:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 06/14/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
81,622 27,057 65,860 8,748 3,853 2,828
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 33.1% 80.7% 10.7% 4.7% 3.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
111 30 36 6 4 5
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
28,574 2,138 2,993 3,609 253 923
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
35.0% 2.6% 3.7% 4.4% 0.3% 1.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
40 4 13 9 3 8
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,890 2,774
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
8.4% 3.4%

COCOA
General Comments: New York was a little higher and London was a little lower last week as currency moves caused most of the movement in Cocoa. The US Dollar was sharply lower and demand ideas are weak, but both cocoa markets are showing signs of a bottom on the daily charts. Reports of sun and dry weather along with very good soil moisture keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa for the year. The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa. Current reports from Ivory Coast indicate that the weather is a good mix of sun and rain so a good midcrop production is expected. The weather is good in Southeast Asia. Ghana arrivals have been below year ago levels. Ivory Coast arrivals are now 1.913 million tons, down 5.1$ from last year.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.504 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2420 July. Support is at 2340, 2300, and 2240 July, with resistance at 2400, 2450, and 2470 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1680, 1650, and 1630 July, with resistance at 1740, 1770, and 1790 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 14, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 356,156
: Positions :
: 54,357 78,587 84,336 131,995 145,384 66,497 32,679 337,185 340,987: 18,971 15,169
: Changes from: June 7, 2022 (Change in open interest: 36,980) :
: 148 16,808 10,689 20,950 2,623 1,571 3,414 33,358 33,535: 3,622 3,445
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.3 22.1 23.7 37.1 40.8 18.7 9.2 94.7 95.7: 5.3 4.3
: Total Traders: 272 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 85 87 93 50 35 32 22 221 192:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 06/14/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
309,948 167,452 177,975 31,721 33,605 21,170
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 54.0% 57.4% 10.2% 10.8% 6.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
153 53 48 14 8 13
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
26,229 20,118 20,554 10,034 1,469 31,905
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
8.5% 6.5% 6.6% 3.2% 0.5% 10.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
22 24 18 14 8 20
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
883 3,152
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.3% 1.0%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322