Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was higher yesterday. The Fed raised interest rates by 0.75% this week in an effort to control inflation and there has been talk that the Fed will raise them even more and cause some lost economic opportunity and lost Cotton business.. There are forecasts for hot and dry weather to return this week after some showers in West Texas and the rest of the Great Plains over the last couple of weeks. The crop conditions are better than expected after a very hot and dry period in West Texas and the rest of the western Great Plains. The Indian weather is cooler and wetter and conditions appear good. There were ideas that production potential is slipping further due to the previous hot and dry weather in West Texas and the rest of the western Great Plains. Chinese demand was shown in the weekly export sales report. Chinese demand could become less due to the Covid lockdowns there be trimming imports due to Covid and has closed a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation. The cities and ports are shut down again as Covid returns.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures and Southeast will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 138.18 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,087 bales, from 1,087 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 142.50, 141.90, and 139.70 July, with resistance of 147.70, 148.70 and 151.90 July.
DJ On-Call Cotton – Jun 16
As of Jun 10. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Jul 22 18,865 27,948 -9,083 2,641 3,050 -409
Oct 22 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 22 62,096 57,532 4,564 22,536 22,851 -315
Mar 23 7,382 7,382 0 3,214 3,224 -10
May 23 6,750 5,972 778 120 120 0
Jul 23 12,590 10,978 1,612 44 44 0
Dec 23 4,688 4,460 228 11,094 11,080 14
Mar 24 0 0 0 0 0 0
May 24 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jul 24 0 0 0 220 220 0
Dec 24 0 0 0 249 249 0
Mar 22 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 112,371 114,272 -1,901 40,118 40,838 -720
Open Open Change
Jul 22 40,096 65,851 -25,755
Oct 22 313 66 247
Dec 22 121,015 99,337 21,678
Mar 23 21,900 20,549 1,351
May 23 7,380 7,112 268
Jul 23 6,906 6,569 337
Dec 23 11,183 10,751 432
Mar 24 166 166 0
May 24 27 28 -1
Jul 24 35 35 0
Dec 24 70 67 3
Mar 22 2 2 0
Total 209,093 210,533 -1,440
General Comments: FCOJ was lower again yesterday and trends are trying to turn down on the charts. There are concerns that another freeze in Brazil could develop but there is nothing in the forecast for now. The market is short Oranges and short juice production but is also worried about domestic demand destruction. US production is 11% below last year but higher than initial USDA projections but the data appears to be part of the price now. The greening disease has taken its toll on the US crop and the previous Brazil crop was down significantly due to drought. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 174.00, 163.00, and 162.00 July. Support is at 173.00, 166.00, and 163.00 July, with resistance at 182.00, 185.00, and 187.00 July.
General Comments: New York and London both closed higher again yesterday on a much weaker US Dollar and very high cash market differentials and in spite of less demand for Vietnamese Coffee. Demand for Coffee overall is thought to be less as the world economic situation changes for the worse but the strong cash market means that even less Coffee is on offer. Temperatures are near to below normal in Brazil and there are no forecasts for frosts or freezes in the short term but the market fears that a freeze could develop.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.998 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 204.06 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up wit4h objectives of 240.00, 242.00, and 252.00 July. Support is at 228.00, 222.00, and 219.00 July, and resistance is at 235.00, 237.00 and 240.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2100, 2150, and 2160 July. Support is at 2050, 2020, and 1990 July, and resistance is at 2110, 2120, and 2170 July.
General Comments: New York was a little higher yesterday on a much weaker US Dollar and despite ideas of bigger supplies and London closed lower as White Sugar supplies and production are expected to increase after being short recently. London White Sugar has been better supported as India has limited exports of White Sugar to 10 million tons for the current marketing year and as Brazil is harvesting its crop of Sugarcane and turning most of it into Ethanol but some Sugar is making it into export channels. However, Sugar production from these countries is expected to be surplus or at least in line with demand. Thailand is still offering and exporting. Reports from India indicated that conditions are generally good for Sugar production. The Indian weather service is predicting a normal monsoon season this year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1850 October. Support is at 1850, 1830, and 1790 October and resistance is at 1900, 1920, and 1960 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 555.00, 548.00, and 546.00 August and resistance is at 570.00, 581.00, and 587.00 August.
General Comments: New York was unchanged to a little higher and London was lower yesterday as currency moves caused most of the movement in Cocoa. The US Dollar was sharply lower and demand ideas are weak. Reports of sun and dry weather along with very good soil moisture keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa for the year. The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa. Current reports from Ivory Coast indicate that the weather is a good mix of sun and rain so a good midcrop production is expected. The weather is good in Southeast Asia. Ghana arrivals have been below year ago levels. Ivory Coast arrivals are now 1.913 million tons, down 5.1$ from last year.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.504 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objective of 2300 July. Support is at 2300, 2240, and 2210 July, with resistance at 2390, 2400, and 2450 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1670 July. Support is at 1700, 1680, and 1650 July, with resistance at 1740, 1770, and 1790 July.