About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT 

General Comments:   Wheat markets were higher yesterday on a much weaker US Dollar and as the Winter Wheat harvest is underway.  The harvest was 10% complete in Monday USDA data and futures should forma harvest low earlier in the harvest due to the small crop size.  Yield reports have been OK in Kansas as recent rains hav e helped kernel size and test weight.  USDA noted mostly stable conditions for the Winter Wheat crops on Monday but noted Spring Wheat planting remained far behind average.  The US western Great Plains got some rainfall and the rains fell in some of the areas most in need of some precipitation.  Hot and dry weather could return this week.  It is turning warmer and drier farther north to give hope to Spring Wheat farmers that they can plant crops.  Europe is too hot and dry and India and Pakistan are both past major heat waves and dry conditions.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Northern areas should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 1037, 1027, and 1023 July, with resistance at 1093, 1108, and 1115 July.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 1119, 1113, and 1087 July, with resistance at 1163, 1185, and 1192 July.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 1190, 1180, and 11855 July, and resistance is at 1237, 1248, and 1256 July.

RICE:                                                 

General Comments:  Rice was lower yesterday after failing to take out some resistance areas on the charts.  It looked like a consolidation day yesterday after the failed rally attempt.  The Fed increased interest rates by 0.75% yesterday.  Trends are turning mixed on the charts and the market could be forming a low.  Growing conditions are said to be deteriorating due to hot and dry weather in Texas expanding to include Arkansas.  There are still ideas of less production of US Rice this year.  The emergence remains behind and acreage estimates are still down for the next crop.  Some traders note that it will be difficult to move Rice at current price levels and they are worried about domestic and export demand moving forward.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1622, 1611, and 1603 July and resistance is at 1661, 1672, and 1677 July.

CORN AND OATS: 

General Comments:  Corn closed higher in July on reports of a stronger US cash market and higher in new crop months on outlooks for hot and dry weather for the next month and three months.  Corn has emerged under what is considered good conditions but it has turned hot in the Midwest.  This will be good for a while but continued hot and dry weather could hurt yields down the road. Stress coluld start to de4velop next week if the hpt and dry weather returns as forecast.  The areas left to be planted are primarily in the Dakotas and will not get planted as the insurance planting dates have passed.  The risk to plant now would be much high er without the insurance and the high costs of inputs.  There are also pockets of area left to be planted in the big production states.  The weather was variable last week with periods of rain and very cool temperatures and then warm and dry conditions and hot and dry weather is expected this week after some rains in central areas on Monday.  Many think the top end of the yield has been taken off the Corn crop due to the delayed planting but others look at the crop condition rating and expect improved yields.  It already thinks there is reduced planted area because of the March planning intentions reports from USDA and the bad planting weather.

Overnight News:  Costa Rica bought 144,907 tons of US Corn and iunknown destinations b ought 105,664 tons of US Corn. 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 802, 867, and 868 July.  Support is at 780, 7371, and 756 July, and resistance is at 797, 810, and 814 July.  Trends in Oats are mixed  Support is at 645, 632, and 625 July, and resistance is at 677, 695, and 708 July.

SOYBEANS 

General Comments:  Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher as hot and dry weather invades the US but Soybean Oil was lower on weakness in petroleum markets and other vegetable oils markets.  US cash market is still running low on Soybeans and there are still renewed Chinese lockdowns.  There is less Chinese demand for Soy products due to the lockdowns there and China is starting to renew the lockdowns now as Covid cases have risen in number.  China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America.  They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs.  Most of the current buying is for next year.

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed.  Support is at 1705, 1682, and 1674 July, and resistance is at 1729, 1743, and 1749 July.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 431.00 and 442.00 July.   Support is at 419.00, 413.00, and 408.00 July, and resistance is at 432.00 436.00, and 439.00 July.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 7500, 7380, and 7130 July.  Support is at 7580, 7280, and 7000 July, with resistance at 7910, 8050, and 8150 July.

AND PALM OIL 

General Comments:  Palm Oil closed lower today despite ideas of less Malaysian production due to worker shortages from Covid and on the potential for strong exports for the month from Malaysia.  The Indonesian government is now imposing a revised tax scheme on exporters to increase export sales and is allowing more export permits to be issued.  Some analysts think Palm Oil is topping out anyway due to reduced demand ideas.  Hopes for better demand from India keep the market supported, but Chinese demand could be less.  A new Covid outbreak is reported in China and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports.  The economy could slow down and affect demand.  Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production.  Canola was lower along with other vegetable oilseed markets.  The crops are going in the ground and the growing conditions are much improved.   It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting but better planting weather is coming now as it is now much warmer.  There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well.  Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 1075.00 and 980.00 July.  Support is at 1063.00, 1054.00, and 1032.00 July, with resistance at 1090.00, 1102.00, and 1110.00 July.  Trends in Palm Oil are down with no objectives.  Support is at 5420, 5360, and 5190 September, with resistance at 5630, 5760, and 5830 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast::  Mostly dry today.  Temperatures should average above normal.

 

 

 

US Gulf Cash Basis 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Corn 

HRW 

SRW 

Soybeans 

Soybean Meal 

Soybean Oil 

June 

105 July 

175 July 

58 July 

140 July 

July 

105 July 

175 July 

58 July 

140 July 

August 

107 July 

170 July 

60 July 

130 July 

 

 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 16 

     WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices

from ICE Futures.

     Source: ICE Futures

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

                     Price     Basis     Contract     Change

CANOLA

*Par Region         1112.00    28.40     July 2022    dn  7.40

Basis: Thunder Bay  1118.10    95.00     Nov. 2022    dn 10.50

Basis: Vancouver    1138.10   115.00     Nov. 2022    dn 10.50

     All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

     *Quote for previous day.

     Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,

or 204-414-9084)

 

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 17 

  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

                 Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

June             1507.50    -15.00      Unquoted   –        –

July             1462.50    -20.00      Unquoted   –        –

Aug/Sep          1372.50    -25.00      Unquoted   –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec      1317.50    -10.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB,     Malaysian ports

                  Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

June              1510.00    -15.00      Unquoted   –        –

July              1465.00    -20.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep       1375.00    -25.00      Unquoted   –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec       1320.00    -10.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB,  Malaysian ports

                  Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

June              1435.00    -20.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

                  Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

June              1200.00    -15.00      Unquoted   –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

                  Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

June              5750.00    -100.00     Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

                  Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

June              345.00     -11.00      Unquoted   –        –

($1=MYR4.402)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 17 

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 122,021 lots, or .75 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Jul-22     6,225     6,260     6,200     6,200     6,193     6,238        45    24,244    22,231

Sep-22     6,156     6,210     6,150     6,150     6,148     6,180        32    84,059    98,527

Nov-22     6,035     6,036     5,988     5,998     6,002     6,014        12    12,689    32,795

Jan-23     6,013     6,013     5,934     5,954     5,977     5,978         1     1,022     4,271

Mar-23         –         –         –     5,940     5,946     5,940        -6         0       110

May-23     5,917     5,949     5,917     5,937     5,922     5,935        13         7        93

Corn

Turnover: 456,817 lots, or 13.24 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open

                                                  Settle                                  Interest

Jul-22     2,844     2,857     2,834     2,854     2,836     2,846        10    21,874     110,785

Sep-22     2,893     2,909     2,885     2,905     2,888     2,897         9   359,106   1,315,862

Nov-22     2,905     2,921     2,901     2,917     2,902     2,912        10    18,698     122,117

Jan-23     2,912     2,927     2,906     2,926     2,910     2,917         7    40,955     162,129

Mar-23     2,915     2,928     2,909     2,928     2,912     2,919         7    15,098      85,865

May-23     2,946     2,960     2,943     2,960     2,943     2,952         9     1,086       8,810

Soymeal

Turnover: 1,042,099 lots, or 42.85 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open

                                                  Settle                                  Interest

Jul-22     4,244     4,294     4,196     4,294     4,203     4,252        49     6,563      29,910

Aug-22     4,205     4,288     4,202     4,278     4,207     4,241        34    44,988     177,515

Sep-22     4,125     4,191     4,104     4,188     4,115     4,151        36   800,276   1,273,222

Nov-22     4,055     4,105     4,029     4,099     4,039     4,067        28    43,235     140,562

Dec-22     3,971     4,018     3,950     4,012     3,956     3,978        22     4,913      56,265

Jan-23     3,879     3,930     3,855     3,928     3,867     3,895        28   116,091     390,793

Mar-23     3,743     3,801     3,728     3,799     3,737     3,761        24    12,493      32,003

May-23     3,595     3,655     3,583     3,653     3,594     3,624        30    13,540      51,390

Palm Oil

Turnover: 729,108 lots, or 78.24 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Jul-22    11,950    12,046    11,768    11,850    12,052    11,878      -174     4,086     9,422

Aug-22    11,086    11,238    10,934    11,020    11,248    11,064      -184    22,537    53,920

Sep-22    10,784    10,864    10,644    10,736    10,938    10,742      -196   638,473   339,964

Oct-22    10,640    10,744    10,534    10,640    10,822    10,632      -190    12,140    40,851

Nov-22    10,516    10,614    10,420    10,526    10,694    10,508      -186     8,975    26,574

Dec-22    10,406    10,494    10,316    10,430    10,544    10,396      -148     5,222     8,831

Jan-23    10,302    10,412    10,244    10,366    10,446    10,320      -126    35,582    71,857

Feb-23    10,212    10,292    10,212    10,278    10,374    10,260      -114         5        49

Mar-23    10,202    10,236    10,202    10,202    10,286    10,210       -76        12       141

Apr-23    10,192    10,192    10,192    10,192    10,242    10,192       -50         2       109

May-23    10,100    10,186    10,040    10,168    10,196    10,130       -66     2,068     6,074

Jun-23    10,034    10,166    10,002    10,148    10,150    10,068       -82         6         3

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 576,571 lots, or 65.25 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Jul-22    11,748    11,762    11,610    11,642    11,908    11,666      -242       487     4,033

Aug-22    11,558    11,642    11,442    11,474    11,696    11,522      -174     6,335    72,706

Sep-22    11,374    11,452    11,288    11,354    11,506    11,354      -152   488,681   354,546

Nov-22    11,256    11,336    11,190    11,254    11,382    11,246      -136    11,951    57,611

Dec-22    11,182    11,254    11,106    11,164    11,304    11,164      -140    11,690    20,647

Jan-23    11,126    11,178    11,028    11,086    11,220    11,086      -134    43,378    87,876

Mar-23    10,846    10,930    10,784    10,850    10,962    10,838      -124    12,177    15,660

May-23    10,540    10,634    10,500    10,560    10,626    10,538       -88     1,872    10,229

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322