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Marc Nemenoff

Marc Nemenoff gives his readers an insight into the decision making process of a professional trader and analyst with 35+ years of market experience. He covers the markets with which he has had the best success throughout his career with. Contact Mr. Nemenoff at (312) 264-4310

Financials:  Sept. Bonds are  12 lower over night at 132’01, 4’13 lower for the week. The 10 Year Note 1s 2.5 lower at 115’02.5, 2’13 lower for the week. Yesterday the FMOC raised rates by 0.75% in an attempt to counter inflation evidenced by last weeks CPI which showed inflation at an a 40 year high of 8.6%. Before the release of CPI guesstimates were in the 50 basis point realm. After the Report analysts sharpened their pencils and started predicting 75 -100 basis point rate hike. This is a showing that the Fed is capable of tackling inflation in a more aggressive manner, leaving the July meeting with a predicted 50-75 rate hike. Yields are currently: 2 year 3.26%. 5 year3.48%. 10 Year 3.40& and 30 year3.43%.

As you can see the yield curve is once again inverted (5 year yielding higher than 10&30 year). In the past this was considered recessionary. Support for Sept. Bonds is 131’24 and resistance 136’16. The trend remains down.

Grains:  Dec. Corn is currently 11 cents higher at 732”0, up 16’0 for the week. Nov. Beans are 9’6 higher at1533’2 down 30’0 for the week .Extremely hot temperatures in growing areas threaten to drop yield per acre. I still like long new crop/short old crop spreads.

Cattle:  Aug. LC closed sharply higher at 136.80, down 70 points for the week. Aug .FC als0 closed up triple digits at 175.10, down 90 for the week. Extreme temperatures have a deleterious effect on Cattle ( it’s hard for them to gain or maintain weight. I’m still watching long Aug./ short deferred contract spreads. Resistance for Aug. LC is 138.40 for the near term.

Silver:  July Silver is up 17 cents at 21.59, down 27 cents for the week. Trend remains down.

S&P:  Sept. S&P’s are 104.00 lower at 3685.00.  Trend remains down as interest rates rise. That being said, this market appears to be oversold and ready for a short covering rally.

Regards,

Marc Nemenoff

Questions? Ask Marc Nemenoff today at 312-264-4310