About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Jun 16
For the week ended Jun 9, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 236.9 0.0 4795.8 5799.5 4213.6 0.0
hrw 119.7 0.0 1342.7 1797.2 1125.2 0.0
srw 34.4 0.0 985.1 1020.2 897.8 0.0
hrs 28.1 0.0 1455.1 1727.6 1285.9 0.0
white 54.6 0.0 948.5 1220.0 840.3 0.0
durum 0.0 0.0 64.4 34.7 64.4 0.0
corn 140.9 138.9 59663.1 69315.8 10594.1 5899.2
soybeans 317.2 407.6 60277.7 61606.1 9491.9 13105.0
soymeal 256.3 35.6 11100.6 10618.3 2638.3 455.6
soyoil 6.2 0.0 683.0 673.2 87.9 0.0
upland cotton 26.5 380.2 15538.7 15946.9 4764.1 3743.0
pima cotton 0.9 0.3 477.8 810.9 68.0 53.1
sorghum 2.1 0.0 6806.4 7226.1 783.3 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 13.8 24.7 12.8 0.0
rice 78.4 0.0 2793.8 3231.9 353.9 6.7

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower again yesterday on ideas of weaker demand for US Wheat and as the Winter Wheat harvest is underway. The harvest was 10% complete in Monday USDA data and futures should forma harvest low earlier in the harvest due to the small crop size. USDA noted mostly stable conditions for the Winter Wheat crops on Monday but noted Spring Wheat planting remained far behind average. The US western Great Plains got some rainfall and the rains fell in some of the areas most in need of some precipitation. Hot and dry weather could return this week. It is turning warmer and drier farther north to give hope to Spring Wheat farmers that they can plant crops. Europe is too hot and dry and India and Pakistan are both past major heat waves and dry conditions.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 1037, 1027, and 1023 July, with resistance at 1082, 1093, and 1108 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 1119, 1113, and 1087 July, with resistance at 1163, 1185, and 1192 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 1190, 1180, and 11855 July, and resistance is at 1237, 1248, and 1256 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower yesterday but held recent lows for the move. It looked like a consolidation day yesterday as the markets waited for the Fed news. The Fed increased interest rates by 0.75% yesterday. Trends are turning mixed on the charts and the market could be forming a low. Growing conditions are said to be good. There are still ideas of less production of US Rice this year but the good conditions are starting to limit loss ideas. The emergence remains behind and acreage estimates are still down for the next crop. Some traders note that it will be difficult to move Rice at current price levels and they are worried about domestic and export demand moving forward.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1622, 1611, and 1603 July and resistance is at 1661, 1672, and 1677 July.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed higher in July on reports of a stronger US cash market and mixed in new crop months. Corn has emerged under what is considered good conditions but it has turned hot in the Midwest. This will be good for a while but continued hot and dry weather could hurt yields down the road. . The areas left to be planted are primarily in the Dakotas and will not get planted as the insurance planting dates have passed. The risk to plant now would be much high er without the insurance and the high costs of inputs. There are also pockets of area left to be planted in the big production states. The weather was variable last week with periods of rain and very cool temperatures and then warm and dry conditions and hot and dry weather is expected this week after some rains in central areas on Monday. Many think the top end of the yield has been taken off the Corn crop due to the delayed planting but others look at the crop condition rating and expect improved yields. It already thinks there is reduced planted area because of the March planning intentions reports from USDA and the bad planting weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 756, 736, and 726 July, and resistance is at 783, 787, and 797 July. Trends in Oats are mixed Support is at 645, 632, and 625 July, and resistance is at 677, 695, and 708 July.

DJ Daily Ethanol Production Perks Back Up
By Kirk Maltais
Daily ethanol production in the U.S. has surged this week, topping analyst estimates.
In its latest weekly report, the EIA said that U.S. ethanol daily production rose to 1.06 million barrels per day, up from 1.039 million barrels last week. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones this week had expected production to land anywhere from 1.028 million barrels per day to 1.04 million barrels per day.
Ethanol inventories also fell back, edging back toward below the 23 million barrels-mark. The EIA reports that ethanol stocks totaled 23.2 million barrels, down from 23.64 million barrels last week. Analysts had forecast inventories to total anywhere from 23.53 million barrels to 23.79 million barrels.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were lower on lower on weakness in petroleum markets while Soybeans were lower on ideas of increased farm selling as the US cash market runs low on Soybeans and on renewed Chinese lockdowns. Soybean Meal was higher. It was a consolidation trade yesterday.. There is less Chinese demand for Soy products due to the lockdowns there and China is starting to renew the lockdowns now as Covid cases have risen in number. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America. They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs. Most of the current buying is for next year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1674, 1665, and 1645 July, and resistance is at 1702, 1729, and 1743 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 394.00, 390.00, and 386.00 July. Support is at 408.00, 404.00, and 395.00 July, and resistance is at 420.00 425.00, and 432.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 7650, 7500, and 7380 July. Support is at 7650, 7280, and 7000 July, with resistance at 7910, 8050, and 8150 July.

Alerts History
• 15-Jun-2022 11:00:07 AM – U.S. MAY SOYBEAN CRUSH 171.077 MILLION BUSHELS – NOPA
• 15-Jun-2022 11:00:07 AM – U.S. MAY SOYOIL STOCKS 1.774 BILLION LBS – NOPA
NOPA May soy crush at 171.077 million bushels, largest May on record – Reuters News
15-Jun-2022 11:00:12 AM
By Karl Plume
CHICAGO, June 15 (Reuters) – The U.S. soybean crush in May was slightly below the average trade estimate, although processors still notched their largest-ever crush for the fifth month of the year, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Wednesday.
NOPA members, which account for around 95% of soybeans processed in the United States, crushed 171.077 million bushels of soybeans last month, up 0.8% from the 169.788 million bushels crushed in April and up 4.6% from the May 2021 crush of 163.521 million bushels. It was the largest May crush on record for NOPA members, topping the prior high mark of 169.584 million bushels set in 2020.
The crush had been expected at 171.552 million bushels, according to the average of estimates from eight analysts. Estimates ranged from 165.400 million to 175.000 million bushels, with a median of 172.000 million bushels. (Full Story)
The average daily crush rate in May fell for a third straight month, dipping to the lowest pace since September, as some processors idled facilities for seasonal maintenance.
Soyoil supplies among NOPA members as of May 31 dropped to 1.774 billion lbs, the smallest end-of-month stocks since September. The stocks were down 2.2% from 1.814 billion lbs at the end of April but up 6.2% from the end of May 2021, when NOPA members had 1.671 billion lbs of soyoil on hand.
Soyoil supplies at the end of May were expected to have tightened to 1.765 billion pounds, according to the average of estimates gathered from five analysts. Estimates ranged from 1.738 billion to 1.787 billion, with a median of 1.775 billion.

AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower today despite ideas of less Malaysian production due to worker shortages from Covid and on the potential for strong exports for the month from Malaysia. The exports reports from the private sources yesterday showed weaker demand. The Indonesian government is now imposing a revised tax scheme on exporters to increase export sales. Some analysts think Palm Oil is topping out anyway due to reduced demand ideas. Hopes for better demand from India keep the market supported, but Chinese demand could be less. A new Covid outbreak is reported in China and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports. The economy could slow down and affect demand. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was lower along with other vegetable oilseed markets. The crops are going in the ground and the growing conditions are much improved. It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting but better planting weather is coming now as it is now much warmer. There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well. Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 1075.00 and 980.00 July. Support is at 1073.00, 1063.00, and 1054.00 July, with resistance at 1102.00, 1110.00, and 1128.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 5520, 5420, and 5360 September, with resistance at 5760, 5830, and 5960 September.

DJ Malaysia June 1-15 Palm Oil Exports Fell 3.5% on Month, SGS Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports for June 1-15 are estimated to have fallen 3.5% from the previous month to 592,423 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) said Wednesday.
The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
June 1-15 May 1-15
RBD Palm Olein 209,653 193,867
RBD Palm Oil 85,680 68,742
RBD Palm Stearin 62,765 42,135
Crude Palm Oil 43,376 100,508
Total* 592,423 613,649
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included
SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de Surveillance Group.

DJ Malaysia June 1-15 Palm Oil Exports 529,480 Tons, Down 6.1%, AmSpec Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the June 1-15 period are estimated down 6.1% on month at 529,480 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Wednesday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
June 1-15 May 1-15
RBD Palm Olein 205,652 194,590
RBD Palm Oil 75,695 65,510
RBD Palm Stearin 51,745 47,964
Crude Palm Oil 46,185 85,954
Total* 529,480 563,633
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry today. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June 105 July 175 July 58 July 140 July
July 105 July 175 July 58 July 140 July
August 107 July 170 July 60 July 130 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 15
WINNIPEG, June 15 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 1119.40 23.10 July 2022 up 12.20
Basis: Thunder Bay 1128.60 45.00 July 2022 dn 12.70
Basis: Vancouver 1148.60 65.00 July 2022 dn 12.70
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 16
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 1522.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
July 1482.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 1397.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1327.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 1525.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
July 1485.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1400.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1330.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 1455.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 1215.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 5850.00 -150.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 356.00 -09.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.401)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 16
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 174,093 lots, or 10.71 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 6,182 6,236 6,148 6,225 6,179 6,193 14 61,182 30,553
Sep-22 6,120 6,180 6,120 6,175 6,130 6,148 18 98,375 94,679
Nov-22 5,985 6,029 5,981 6,017 6,000 6,002 2 13,614 33,471
Jan-23 5,971 5,996 5,957 5,988 5,973 5,977 4 899 4,749
Mar-23 5,932 5,998 5,928 5,964 5,933 5,946 13 11 110
May-23 5,914 5,940 5,874 5,874 5,928 5,922 -6 12 94
Corn
Turnover: 372,981 lots, or 10.78 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 2,831 2,844 2,829 2,836 2,831 2,836 5 21,620 118,372
Sep-22 2,883 2,895 2,879 2,887 2,881 2,888 7 286,137 1,344,316
Nov-22 2,896 2,910 2,893 2,901 2,896 2,902 6 21,939 120,519
Jan-23 2,905 2,916 2,903 2,909 2,909 2,910 1 30,116 156,830
Mar-23 2,912 2,917 2,906 2,910 2,909 2,912 3 12,168 84,359
May-23 2,950 2,950 2,938 2,943 2,944 2,943 -1 1,001 8,403
Soymeal
Turnover: 808,519 lots, or 32.98 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 4,197 4,234 4,180 4,206 4,210 4,203 -7 7,335 32,897
Aug-22 4,188 4,243 4,187 4,213 4,217 4,207 -10 26,163 184,685
Sep-22 4,100 4,144 4,089 4,118 4,118 4,115 -3 638,786 1,220,929
Nov-22 4,023 4,068 4,016 4,038 4,043 4,039 -4 24,279 139,532
Dec-22 3,951 3,987 3,940 3,956 3,963 3,956 -7 5,048 56,503
Jan-23 3,846 3,893 3,842 3,864 3,866 3,867 1 88,767 388,874
Mar-23 3,731 3,760 3,712 3,738 3,729 3,737 8 12,085 31,781
May-23 3,591 3,616 3,581 3,590 3,596 3,594 -2 6,056 54,822
Palm Oil
Turnover: 829,884 lots, or 90.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 12,144 12,194 11,880 11,892 12,420 12,052 -368 6,562 10,169
Aug-22 11,252 11,414 11,006 11,086 11,638 11,248 -390 25,052 54,142
Sep-22 11,020 11,090 10,732 10,792 11,196 10,938 -258 731,167 342,634
Oct-22 10,900 10,946 10,586 10,636 11,052 10,822 -230 13,511 40,175
Nov-22 10,744 10,798 10,466 10,516 10,906 10,694 -212 12,115 25,865
Dec-22 10,626 10,668 10,346 10,408 10,730 10,544 -186 4,678 7,933
Jan-23 10,440 10,570 10,268 10,316 10,618 10,446 -172 34,988 67,863
Feb-23 10,418 10,430 10,224 10,238 10,446 10,374 -72 8 49
Mar-23 10,396 10,416 10,172 10,172 10,434 10,286 -148 42 140
Apr-23 10,352 10,354 10,130 10,136 10,358 10,242 -116 25 107
May-23 10,210 10,318 10,062 10,110 10,312 10,196 -116 1,734 5,647
Jun-23 10,236 10,236 10,066 10,066 10,312 10,150 -162 2 2
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 672,567 lots, or 77.15 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 11,958 11,958 11,684 11,696 12,000 11,908 -92 2,534 4,234
Aug-22 11,760 11,826 11,544 11,578 11,912 11,696 -216 11,733 73,392
Sep-22 11,570 11,626 11,352 11,380 11,686 11,506 -180 563,528 358,045
Nov-22 11,458 11,494 11,254 11,270 11,554 11,382 -172 15,560 56,259
Dec-22 11,368 11,406 11,174 11,200 11,452 11,304 -148 15,625 19,841
Jan-23 11,264 11,336 11,100 11,122 11,362 11,220 -142 48,974 85,347
Mar-23 10,992 11,080 10,848 10,870 11,082 10,962 -120 13,411 15,161
May-23 10,652 10,742 10,540 10,568 10,730 10,626 -104 1,202 10,385
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322