About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday as the Covid lockdowns returned to China and hurt demand ideas for US Cotton. USDA made no changes in its monthly supply and demand updates last Friday. It did trim slightly the world ending stocks estimates for the next crop. USDA reported good export sales again last week. There are forecasts for hot and dry weather to return this week after some showers in West Texas and the rest of the Great Plains over the last couple of weeks and the crop conditions are better than expected after a very hot and dry period in West Texas and the rest of the western Great Plains. It has also been hot and dry in India and crops grown there are thought to be under stress as well. The Indian weather is cooler and wetter now. There were ideas that production potential is slipping further due to the previous hot and dry weather in West Texas and the rest of the western Great Plains. Chinese demand was shown in the weekly export sales report. Chinese demand could become less due to the Covid lockdowns there be trimming imports due to Covid and has closed a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation. The cities and ports are starting to open up again.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures and Southeast will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 140.06 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,087 bales, from 1,087 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 144.00, 151.60 and 152.20 July. Support is at 141.90, 139.70, and 138.50 July, with resistance of 147.70, 148.70 and 151.90 July.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower yesterday and trends are trying to turn down on the charts. USDA on Friday increased Florida and US production estimates by 1.0 million boxes as Florida Valencia production was increased. Production overall is still about 11% less than a year ago. Logistics on imports is once again a problem with a lot of boats stuck off shore in China. There are concerns that another freeze in Brazil could develop but there is nothing in the forecast for now. The market is short Oranges and short juice production but is also worried about domestic demand destruction as pills are becoming cheaper again. The greening disease has taken its toll on the US crop and the previous Brazil crop was down significantly due to drought. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good, but it is drier now and some trees are developing stress. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 174.00, 163.00, and 162.00 July. Support is at 179.00, 177.00, and 173.00 July, with resistance at 185.00, 187.00, and 189.00 July.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were lower last week amid reports of increased farm selling from Brazil due to a stronger US Dollar and less demand for Vietnamese Coffee. Demand for Coffee overall is thought to be less as the world economic situation changes for the worse. Temperatures are near to above normal in Brazil and there are no forecasts for frosts or freezes in the short term but the market fears that a freeze could develop. USDA said that Brazil could produce 64.3 million bags of Coffee this year, significantly higher than last year. It could produce 41.5 million bags of Arabica and 22.8 million bags of Robusta.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.012 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 197.37 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to below normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 218.00, 215.00, and 209.00 July, and resistance is at 230.00, 235.00 and 237.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 200, 1990, and 1960 July, and resistance is at 2070, 2110, and 2120 July.

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were lower yesterday on a stronger US Dollar and ideas of bigger supplies. The UNICA data released Friday showed large than expected production. London White Sugar has been better supported as India has limited exports of White Sugar to 10 million tons for the current marketing year and as Brazil is harvesting its crop of Sugarcane and turning most of it into Ethanol but some Sugar is making it into export channels. Thailand is still offering and exporting. Reports from India indicated that conditions are generally good for Sugar production. The Indian weather service is predicting a normal monsoon season this year. Support for London also came from ideas of little Sugar coming from Brazil as the mills there are processing for Ethanol and limited European offers in part due to the Ukraine war.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1850 October. Support is at 1880, 1830, and 1790 October and resistance is at 1920, 1960, and 1990 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 555.00, 548.00, and 546.00 August and resistance is at 570.00, 581.00, and 587.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were lower yesterday. Reports of sun and dry weather along with very good soil moisture keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa for the year. The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa. Current reports from Ivory Coast indicate that the weather is a good mix of sun and rain so a good midcrop production is expected. The weather is good in Southeast Asia. Ghana arrivals have been below year ago levels. Ivory Coast arrivals are now 1.913 million tons, down 5.1$ from last year.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are much lower today at 5.511 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objective of 2300 July. Support is at 2300, 2240, and 2210 July, with resistance at 2400, 2450, and 2470 July. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1670 July. Support is at 1700, 1680, and 1650 July, with resistance at 1740, 1770, and 1790 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322