About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jun 13
*** This report will not be published on Monday, June 20, 2022
due to Federal holiday.***
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JUN 09, 2022
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 06/09/2022 06/02/2022 06/10/2021 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 710 0 710
CORN 1,199,976 1,458,519 1,610,988 44,956,885 54,219,312
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0 0
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 0 0
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 140,003 207,953 151,285 6,468,775 6,422,914
SOYBEANS 605,129 365,455 141,320 50,473,191 57,048,412
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 2,260 240
WHEAT 388,847 355,340 499,945 615,556 694,430
Total 2,333,955 2,387,267 2,404,248 102,516,667 118,386,018
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

Crop Progress
Date 12-Jun 5-Jun 2021 Avg
Cotton Planted 90 84 87 88
Cotton Squaring 14 11 12 15
Corn Planted 97 94 100 97
Corn Emerged 88 78 95 89
Soybeans Planted 88 78 93 88
Soybeans Emerged 70 56 85 74
Sorghum Planted 66 56 69 71
Sorghum Headed 13 13 15
Rice Emerged 95 89 95 94
Peanuts Planted 94 88 91 93
Peanuts Pegging 3 6 6
Sugarbeets Planted 99 94 100 100
Sunflowers Planted 61 33 76 71
Oats Planted 97 94 100 99
Oats Emerged 88 80 98 96
Oats Headed 32 26 40 41
Winter Wheat Headed 86 79 91 90
Winter Wheat Harvested 10 5 4 12
Spring Wheat Planted 94 82 100 99
Spring Wheat Emerged 72 55 95 93
Barley Planted 97 91 100 99
Barley Emerged 87 743 95 92

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 3 16 35 41 5
Cotton Last Week 2 13 37 43 5
Cotton Last Year 1 8 46 37 8

Corn This Week 1 4 23 59 13
Corn Last Week 1 3 23 61 12
Corn Last Year 1 4 27 56 12

Soybeans This Week 1 4 25 59 11
Soybeans Last Week
Soybeans Last Year 2 6 30 53 9

Winter Wheat This Week 24 18 27 26 5
Winter Wheat Last Week 23 17 30 26 4
Winter Wheat Last Year 6 14 32 40 8

Spring Wheat This Week 2 7 37 49 5
Spring Wheat Last Week
Spring Wheat Last Year 9 18 36 34 3

Sorghum This Week 6 8 39 45 2
Sorghyum Last Week 5 11 38 43 3
Sorghum Last Year 0 2 24 64 10

Rice This Week 0 1 26 57 16
Rice Last Week 0 2 26 57 15
Rice Last Year 1 3 24 59 13

Peanuts This Week 1 7 21 63 8
Peanuts Last Week 1 6 20 64 9
Peanuts Last Year 0 5 3056 9 6

Oats This Week 12 9 21 51 7
Oats Last Week 12 10 23 47 8
Oats Last Year 5 15 38 36 6

Barley This Week 6 15 30 42 7
Barley Last Week 3 16 35 38 8
Barley Last Year 5 14 36 38 7

Pastures and Ranges This Week 18 24 27 27 4
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 19 24 29 25 3
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 16 20 29 28 7

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were mixed yesterday but closed with a firm tone. The Winter Wheat markets were led higher by Chicago but both markets rebounded from weakness seen early in the session on the US weather Minneapolis Spring Wheat markets were up even as conditions got a little better in the northern US and Canada. USDA noted mostly stable conditions for the Winter Wheat crops on Monday but noted Spring Wheat planting remained far behind average. The Winter Wheat harvest is underway in the US. USDA released its monthly supply and demand updates on Friday and US production of Winter Wheat was increased against trade ideas of a production cut. Demand increased a little bit as well so ending stocks were trimmed slightly for the current and the next crop. World ending stocks levels were increased slightly on bigger stocks in Ukraine and Russia. The US western Great Plains got some rainfall and the rains fell in some of the areas most in need of some precipitation. Hot and dry weather could return this week. It is turning warmer and drier farther north to give hope to Spring Wheat farmers that they can plant crops. Europe is too hot and dry and India and Pakistan are both past major heat waves and dry conditions.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 1044, 1037, and 1027 July, with resistance at 1108, 1115, and 1134 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 1130, 1119, and 1113 July, with resistance at 1185, 1192, and 1213 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 1210, 1198, and 1190 July, and resistance is at 1248, 1256, and 1260 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher after making new lows for the move as new buying came into the futures market in the last part of the session. Trends are still down on the charts but the price action yesterday implies that a trend change back to up is possible. USDA on Friday cut long grain export demand by 1.0 million hundredweight and increased ending stocks fir this and next year by the same amount. It made no other changes to the supply or demand estimates for the coming year. The weekly export sales report showed bad demand last week. Growing conditions are said to be good. There are still ideas of less production of US Rice this year but the good conditions are starting to limit loss ideas. The mergence remains behind and acreage estimates are still down for the next crop. Some traders note that it will be difficult to move Rice at current price levels and they are worried about domestic and export demand moving forward.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1580 July. Support is at 1611, 1603, and 1594 July and resistance is at 1656, 1661, and 1672 July.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed mixed after some weakness early in the session and Oats were higher. USDA made no changes to production estimates for the new crop and made no demand changes, either. Old crop export demand was cut and ending stocks were increased. The increase was carried forward into the next crop. Corn has emerged under what was considered good conditions . The areas left to be planted are primarily in the Dakotas and might not get planted as the insurance planting dates have passed. The risk to plant now would be much high er without the insurance and the high costs of inputs. There are also pockets of area left to be planted in the big production states. The weather was variable last week with periods of rain and very cool temperatures and then warm and dry conditions and hot and dry weather is expected this week. Many think the top end of the yield has been taken off the Corn crop due to the delayed planting but others look at the crop condition rating and expect improved yields. It already thinks there is reduced planted area because of the March planning intentions reports from USDA and the bad planting weather.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 148,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 802, 867, and 868 July. Support is at 765, 756, and 736 July, and resistance is at 783, 787, and 797 July. Trends in Oats are mixed Support is at 644, 625, and 607 July, and resistance is at 677, 695, and 708 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower on ideas of increased farm selling as the US cash market runs low on Soybeans and on renewed Chinese lockdowns. Soybean Oil was lower but still found support in part from talk that President Biden plans to retroactively increase bio fuels use to help bring down the prices of Crude Oil and petroleum products. Crude Oil traded lower early but then recovered its losses. USDA released its monthly supply and demand estimates on Friday and increased current year export demand and cut ending stocks estimates. No changes were made to the estimates for the next crop year and the lower ending stocks estimates were carried forward. There is less Chinese demand for Soy products due to the lockdowns there and China is starting to renew the lockdowns now as Covid cases have risen in number. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America. They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs. Most of the current buying is for next year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1690, 1674, and 1665 July, and resistance is at 1729, 1743, and 1749 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 414.00, 4104.00, and 395.00 July, and resistance is at 435.00 436.00, and 439.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 7650, 7500, and 7380 July. Support is at 7650, 7280, and 7000 July, with resistance at 8050, 8150, and 8340 July.

AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower today despite ideas of less Malaysian production due to worker shortages from Covid and on the potential for strong exports for the month from Malaysia. The Indonesian government is now imposing a revised tax scheme on exporters to increase export sales. Some analysts think Palm Oil is topping out anyway due to reduced demand ideas. Hopes for better demand from India keep the market supported, but Chinese demand could be less. A new Covid outbreak is reported in China and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports. The economy could slow down and affect demand. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was lower along with other world vegetable oils markets and Soybeans in Chicago. The crops are going in the ground and the growing conditions are much improved. It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting but better planting weather is coming now as it is now much warmer. There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well. Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 1075.00 and 980.00 July. Support is at 1083.00, 1078.00, and 1075.00 July, with resistance at 1110.00, 1128.00, and 1144.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 5590, 5420, and 5360 September, with resistance at 5830, 5960, and 6030 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry today. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June 105 July 175 July 58 July 140 July
July 105 July 175 July 58 July 140 July
August 107 July 170 July 60 July 130 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 13
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 1124.10 20.00 July 2022 dn 14.90
Basis: Thunder Bay 1132.20 45.00 July 2022 dn 16.90
Basis: Vancouver 1152.20 65.00 July 2022 dn 16.90
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 14
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1597.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1467.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1357.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1600.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1470.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1360.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 1510.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 1240.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 6250.00 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 370.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.4205)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 14
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 95,563 lots, or .59 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 6,212 6,240 6,183 6,213 6,243 6,212 -31 53,290 63,278
Sep-22 6,174 6,185 6,153 6,168 6,182 6,168 -14 30,918 67,858
Nov-22 5,980 6,019 5,960 6,018 5,987 5,989 2 10,779 32,005
Jan-23 5,940 5,986 5,934 5,986 5,954 5,966 12 568 4,865
Mar-23 5,974 5,974 5,974 5,974 5,927 5,974 47 2 119
May-23 5,925 5,939 5,925 5,938 5,926 5,933 7 6 93
Corn
Turnover: 483,316 lots, or 13.99 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 2,835 2,862 2,829 2,837 2,823 2,842 19 38,010 135,723
Sep-22 2,891 2,913 2,878 2,888 2,877 2,893 16 355,004 1,318,469
Nov-22 2,900 2,919 2,896 2,909 2,889 2,907 18 17,726 117,506
Jan-23 2,906 2,930 2,901 2,918 2,901 2,919 18 49,983 152,886
Mar-23 2,911 2,932 2,906 2,920 2,908 2,920 12 21,067 79,769
May-23 2,948 2,962 2,940 2,952 2,945 2,952 7 1,526 7,704
Soymeal
Turnover: 925,531 lots, or 37.82 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 4,245 4,245 4,177 4,214 4,298 4,215 -83 6,545 40,110
Aug-22 4,261 4,263 4,189 4,233 4,323 4,226 -97 43,035 199,720
Sep-22 4,161 4,166 4,100 4,138 4,210 4,131 -79 691,619 1,237,381
Nov-22 4,080 4,084 4,029 4,051 4,122 4,052 -70 22,236 136,427
Dec-22 3,996 3,996 3,946 3,972 4,022 3,972 -50 6,910 57,642
Jan-23 3,909 3,909 3,851 3,876 3,935 3,879 -56 131,702 383,220
Mar-23 3,761 3,764 3,713 3,734 3,791 3,736 -55 11,877 30,077
May-23 3,617 3,622 3,576 3,599 3,649 3,598 -51 11,607 53,914
Palm Oil
Turnover: 715,180 lots, or 80.80 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-22 – – – 15,214 15,214 15,214 0 0 190
Jul-22 12,882 12,954 12,720 12,864 12,822 12,836 14 4,606 14,106
Aug-22 11,888 12,066 11,776 12,014 11,924 11,934 10 16,898 56,682
Sep-22 11,270 11,472 11,166 11,418 11,328 11,316 -12 631,668 340,111
Oct-22 11,060 11,252 10,972 11,208 11,156 11,108 -48 13,398 40,392
Nov-22 10,842 11,080 10,804 11,032 10,978 10,932 -46 11,518 24,901
Dec-22 10,704 10,918 10,644 10,878 10,818 10,776 -42 3,940 6,357
Jan-23 10,590 10,792 10,516 10,742 10,684 10,660 -24 32,272 72,057
Feb-23 – – – 10,620 10,500 10,620 120 0 48
Mar-23 10,446 10,586 10,446 10,586 10,544 10,492 -52 6 147
Apr-23 – – – 10,484 10,484 10,484 0 0 124
May-23 10,280 10,428 10,170 10,376 10,396 10,306 -90 874 5,089
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 551,547 lots, or 6.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 12,072 12,160 12,008 12,130 12,094 12,084 -10 1,552 6,448
Aug-22 11,948 12,046 11,908 12,024 11,968 11,990 22 13,378 74,057
Sep-22 11,720 11,820 11,680 11,798 11,734 11,756 22 454,652 386,471
Nov-22 11,522 11,644 11,506 11,618 11,566 11,582 16 18,016 53,075
Dec-22 11,436 11,544 11,398 11,520 11,472 11,474 2 15,191 16,650
Jan-23 11,320 11,444 11,300 11,424 11,360 11,380 20 34,476 83,075
Mar-23 11,092 11,160 11,026 11,118 11,110 11,094 -16 13,259 13,622
May-23 10,764 10,784 10,700 10,774 10,756 10,740 -16 1,023 10,292
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322