About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher last week and trends are up again on the charts. USDA made no changes in its monthly supply and demand updates so futures prices were a little lower on Friday. It did trim slightly the world ending stocks estimates for the next crop. USDA reported good export sales again last week. There are forecasts for hot and dry weather to return this week after some showers in West Texas and the rest of the Great Plains over the last couple of weeks and the crop conditions are better than expected after a very hot and dry period in West Texas and the rest of the western Great Plains. It has also been hot and dry in India and crops grown there are thought to be under stress as well. The Indian weather is cooler now. There were ideas that production potential is slipping further due to the previous hot and dry weather in West Texas and the rest of the western Great Plains. Chinese demand was shown in the weekly export sales report. Chinese demand could become less due to the Covid lockdowns there be trimming imports due to Covid and has closed a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation. The cities and ports are starting to open up again.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures and Southeast will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 140.06 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,087 bales, from 1,087 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 144.00, 151.60 and 152.20 July. Support is at 139.70, 138.00, and 136.10 July, with resistance of 147.70, 148.70 and 151.90 July.

U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2020/21 2021/22 Est. 2022/23 Proj. 2022/23 Proj.
Item May Jun
================================================================================
Million Acres
Planted 12.09 11.22 12.23* 12.23*
Harvested 8.22 10.27 9.14* 9.14*

Pounds
Yield per Harvested
Acre 853 819 867* 867*

Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks 7.25 3.15 3.40 3.40
Production 14.61 17.52 16.50 16.50
Imports 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01
Supply, Total 21.86 20.68 19.91 19.91
Domestic Use 2.40 2.55 2.50 2.50
Exports, Total 16.37 14.75 14.50 14.50
Use, Total 18.77 17.30 17.00 17.00
Unaccounted 2/ -0.06 -0.02 0.01 0.01
Ending Stocks 3.15 3.40 2.90 2.90
Avg. Farm Price 3/ 66.3 92.0 90.0 95.0
================================================================================
WASDE – 625 – 18 June 2022

World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-Pound Bales)
================================================================================
Supply Use
Region Beginning Produc- Loss Ending
Stocks tion Imports Domestic Exports 2/ Stocks
===============================================================================
2022/23 Proj.
World
May 83.65 121.06 47.56 121.99 47.56 -0.10 82.82
Jun 82.95 121.27 47.49 121.54 47.48 -0.10 82.77
World Less China
May 47.17 93.56 37.06 83.99 47.51 -0.10 46.40
Jun 46.27 93.77 36.99 83.54 47.43 -0.10 46.15
United States
May 3.40 16.50 0.01 2.50 14.50 0.01 2.90
Jun 3.40 16.50 0.01 2.50 14.50 0.01 2.90
Total Foreign
May 80.25 104.56 47.56 119.49 33.06 -0.10 79.92
Jun 79.55 104.77 47.48 119.04 32.98 -0.10 79.87
Major Exporters 4/
May 31.10 60.24 2.46 34.15 28.98 -0.17 30.84
Jun 30.47 60.45 2.39 34.15 28.83 -0.17 30.49
Major Importers 8/
May 46.36 41.07 42.71 81.15 2.57 0.07 46.35
Jun 46.31 41.07 42.71 80.75 2.69 0.07 46.57
================================================================================
WASDE – 625 – 28 June 2022

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 07, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 283,160
: Positions :
: 57,714 12,544 71,614 58,777 179,231 76,472 10,620 264,577 274,009: 18,583 9,150
: Changes from: May 31, 2022 (Change in open interest: -3,963) :
: -367 -59 -1,198 -1,269 -3,242 -1,212 -124 -4,046 -4,624: 83 661
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.4 4.4 25.3 20.8 63.3 27.0 3.8 93.4 96.8: 6.6 3.2
: Total Traders: 275 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 114 43 80 53 62 46 23 240 186:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher last week and trends are still up on the charts. USDA increased Florida and US production estimates by 1.0 million boxes as Florida Valencia production was increased. Production overall is still about 11% less than a year ago. Logistics on imports is once again a problem with a lot of boats stuck off shore in China. There are concerns that another freeze in Brazil could develop but there is nothing in the forecast for now. The market is short Oranges and short juice production but is also worried about domestic demand destruction as pills are becoming cheaper again. The greening disease has taken its toll on the US crop and the previous Brazil crop was down significantly due to drought. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good, but it is drier now and some trees are developing stress. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get big rains. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 194.00, 197.00, and 204.00 July. Support is at 184.00, 181.00, and 179.00 July, with resistance at 193.00, 19.00, and 200.00 July.

The United States all orange forecast for the 2021-2022 season is
3.90 million tons, up 1 percent from the previous forecast but
down 11 percent from the 2020-2021 final utilization. The Florida all orange
forecast, at 40.7 million boxes (1.83 million tons), is up 1 percent from the
previous forecast but down 23 percent from last season’s final utilization.
In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at
18.2 million boxes (819,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but
down 20 percent from last season’s final utilization. The Florida Valencia
orange forecast, at 22.5 million boxes (1.01 million tons), is up 2 percent
from the previous forecast but down 26 percent from last season’s final
utilization. California and Texas orange production forecasts were carried
forward from the previous forecast.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 7, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 15,602 :
: Positions :
: 886 11,675 3,185 14 59 4,970 61 530 924 243 2,285 :
: Changes from: May 31, 2022 :
: 16 572 109 -11 19 190 0 -32 64 59 -32 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 5.7 74.8 20.4 0.1 0.4 31.9 0.4 3.4 5.9 1.6 14.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 69 :
: 13 18 6 . . 26 . 8 8 7 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were lower last week amid reports of less farm selling from Brazil and less demand for Vietnamese Coffee. Demand for Coffee overall is thought to be less as the world economic situation changes for the worse. Temperatures are near to above normal in Brazil and there are no forecasts for frosts or freezes in the short term but the market fears that a freeze could develop. USDA said that Brazil could produce 64.3 million bags of Coffee this year, significantly higher than last year. It could produce 41.5 million bags of Arabica and 22.8 million bags of Robusta.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.017 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 201.45 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 225.00, 223.00, and 218.00 July, and resistance is at 235.00, 237.00 and 240.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2060, 2030, and 2020 July, and resistance is at 2110, 2130, and 2170 July.

DJ Brazil Coffee Exports Rose 5.1% in May to 2.8M Bags, Cecafe Says
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SÃO PAULO–Brazilian coffee exports rose in May as shipping problems and port bottlenecks eased, according to exporters group Cecafe.
The South American country exported 2.8 million 132-pound bags of coffee last month, an increase of 5.1% from the same month a year earlier, Cecafe said Thursday. Sales abroad of the arabica variety of coffee rose 15.6% to 2.4 million bags, while exports of robusta beans plunged 60% to 121,127 bags.
Exports of ground, roast and soluble coffee fell 1.9% to 277,094 bags, Cecafe said.
Brazil is the world’s biggest producer and exporter of arabica coffee, and the second biggest of the robusta variety, and sales abroad have been hurt in recent months by a lack of capacity on ships and by scarce shipping containers.
“The small increase last month is a reflection of a slight logistical improvement which made it possible to ship the coffee scheduled for May and part of the cargo that was dammed up in ports,” according to Cecafe President Gunter Häusler. But “Brazilian exporters continue to face difficulties in obtaining containers and space on ships, and face very expensive freight costs,” he added.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 07, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 273,810
: Positions :
: 33,457 7,839 80,472 89,442 164,377 60,784 13,942 264,155 266,630: 9,655 7,180
: Changes from: May 31, 2022 (Change in open interest: 9,912) :
: 3,531 1,366 5,388 -1,555 3,822 2,799 -584 10,163 9,992: -251 -80
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.2 2.9 29.4 32.7 60.0 22.2 5.1 96.5 97.4: 3.5 2.6
: Total Traders: 398 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 134 60 125 127 132 45 25 353 305:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 06/07/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
117,948 58,266 80,827 2,921 13,652 1,584
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 49.4% 68.5% 2.5% 11.6% 1.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
133 43 40 8 5 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
29,848 2,587 3,406 5,043 2,676 9,164
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
25.3% 2.2% 2.9% 4.3% 2.3% 7.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
38 10 12 8 11 15
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
7,716 4,052
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.5% 3.4%

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were lower last week due mostly to supply concerns. London White Sugar has been better supported as India has limited exports of White Sugar to 10 million tons for the current marketing year and as Brazil is harvesting its crop of Sugarcane and turning most of it into Ethanol but some Sugar is making it into export channels. Thailand is still offering and exporting. Reports from India indicated that conditions are generally good for Sugar production. The Indian weather service is predicting a normal monsoon season this year. Support for London also came from ideas of little Sugar coming from Brazil as the mills there are processing for Ethanol and limited European offers in part due to the Ukraine war.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1900 and 1850 October. Support is at 1900, 1880, and 1820 October and resistance is at 1960, 1990, and 2000 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 556.00, 548.00, and 546.00 August and resistance is at 581.00, 587.00, and 589.00 August.

DJ Brazil Center-South Sugar Crush Up 0.04% at 43.7M Tons in 2H May
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian sugar mills in the country’s center-south region crushed slightly more cane in the second half of May compared with a year earlier, according to industry group Unica.
Center-south mills crushed 43.7 million metric tons of cane in the period, an increase of 0.04% from the same period a year earlier, Unica said Friday. They produced 2.3 million tons of sugar, down 12.7%, and made 2.03 billion liters of ethanol, an increase of 0.5%.
The production mix for the second half of May was 43.2% sugar to 56.8% ethanol, compared with 46.2% sugar and 53.8% ethanol in the same period a year ago.
In the period from April 1 through May 31, mills in the region crushed 107.1 million tons of cane, down 17.9% from the same period a year earlier. Sugar production fell 29.8% to 5.1 million tons, and ethanol output declined 12.3% to 5.2 billion liters.
The production mix for the season through May 31 was 40.5% sugar to 59.5% ethanol, compared with 45% sugar and 55% ethanol in the same period a year earlier.

U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2020/21 2021/22 Est. 2022/23 Proj. 2022/23 Proj.
Item May Jun
================================================================================
1000 Short Tons, Raw Value
Beginning Stocks 1618 1705 1813 1717
Production 2/ 9233 9120 9040 8822
Beet Sugar 5092 5154 5000 4809
Cane Sugar 4141 3967 4040 4013
Florida 2090 1938 2000 2000
Louisiana 1918 1906 1910 1910
Texas 134 122 130 103
Imports 3195 3482 3003 3013
TRQ 3/ 1749 1727 1379 1390
Other Program 4/ 292 300 250 250
Non-program 1154 1455 1373 1373
Mexico 968 1220 1323 1323
High-tier tariff/other 186 235 50 50
Total Supply 14046 14307 13856 13553
Exports 49 35 35 35
Deliveries 12252 12555 12555 12555
Food 12135 12450 12450 12450
Other 5/ 116 105 105 105
Miscellaneous 40 0 0 0
Total Use 12341 12590 12590 12590
Ending Stocks 1705 1717 1266 963
Stocks to Use Ratio 13.8 13.6 10.1 7.6
================================================================================
Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Consumption 1/
================================================================================
Supply Use
Fiscal Beginning Produc- Imports Domestic Exports Ending
Year Stocks tion 2/ Stocks
================================================================================
1000 Metric Tons, Actual Weight
Sugar
2021/22 Est.
May 1053 6167 50 4412 1937 921
Jun 1053 6208 50 4547 1817 947
2022/23 Proj.
May 921 6000 50 4422 1628 921
Jun 947 6000 50 4547 1503 947
================================================================================
WASDE – 625 – 17 June 2022

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 07, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,001,730
: Positions :
: 123,188 49,966 212,870 278,017 630,147 293,246 53,833 907,322 946,816: 94,408 54,914
: Changes from: May 31, 2022 (Change in open interest: -2,944) :
: -8,475 791 2,497 8,577 -3,399 -6,448 -3,379 -3,849 -3,489: 905 546
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.3 5.0 21.3 27.8 62.9 29.3 5.4 90.6 94.5: 9.4 5.5
: Total Traders: 251 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 70 53 90 69 75 39 19 225 195:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 06/07/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
80,173 24,588 64,152 8,849 3,562 2,386
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 30.7% 80.0% 11.0% 4.4% 3.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
114 30 38 8 3 5
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
30,044 2,042 3,922 3,333 447 1,205
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
37.5% 2.5% 4.9% 4.2% 0.6% 1.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
42 3 14 8 4 10
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,846 2,457
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.3% 3.1%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were lower last week as supply increases and demand does not. Reports of big rains in Ivory Coast supported ideas of a big mid crop production but also brought ideas of moldy deliveries to ports. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa for the year. The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa. Current reports from Ivory Coast indicate that the weather is a good mix of sun and rain so a good midcrop production is expected. The weather is good in Southeast Asia. Ghana arrivals have been below year ago levels.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are much lower today at 5.511 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objective of 2380 and 2300 July. Support is at 2390, 2370, and 2340 July, with resistance at 2470, 2500, and 2540 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1730, 1730, and 1700 July, with resistance at 1770, 1790, and 1810 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 07, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 319,176
: Positions :
: 54,209 61,778 73,648 111,045 142,761 64,926 29,265 303,827 307,452: 15,349 11,724
: Changes from: May 31, 2022 (Change in open interest: -33,794) :
: -1,025 -6,958 -17,557 -11,385 -5,697 -943 -1,609 -30,911 -31,822: -2,883 -1,973
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.0 19.4 23.1 34.8 44.7 20.3 9.2 95.2 96.3: 4.8 3.7
: Total Traders: 243 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 74 72 82 51 35 31 21 203 171:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 06/07/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
310,383 166,179 182,155 31,420 34,026 21,102
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 53.5% 58.7% 10.1% 11.0% 6.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
146 50 45 13 8 12
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
27,960 16,690 18,950 10,760 901 30,723
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
9.0% 5.4% 6.1% 3.5% 0.3% 9.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
25 18 18 15 8 22
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,289 5,836
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.1% 1.9%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322