About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher and trends are up again on the daily charts. USDA reported good export sales yesterday. There are still forecasts for some showers in West Texas and the rest of the Great Plains and the crop conditions are better than expected after a very hot and dry period in West Texas and the rest of the western Great Plains. It has also been hot and dry in India and crops grown there are thought to be under stress as well. The Indian weather is cooler now. There were ideas that production potential is slipping further due to the previous hot and dry weather in West Texas and the rest of the western Great Plains. Chinese demand was shown in the weekly export sales report. Chinese demand could become less due to the Covid lockdowns there be trimming imports due to Covid and has closed a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation. The cities and ports are starting to open up again.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and near to below normal temperatures and Southeast will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 141.51 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,087 bales, from 1,087 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 144.00, 151.60 and 152.20 July. Support is at 139.70, 138.00, and 136.10 July, with resistance of 146.10, 148.70 and 151.90 July.

DJ On-Call Cotton – Jun 9
As of Jun 3. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Jul 22 27,948 35,729 -7,781 3,050 3,346 -296
Oct 22 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 22 57,532 57,080 452 22,851 22,876 -25
Mar 23 7,382 7,527 -145 3,224 3,120 104
May 23 5,972 5,142 830 120 142 -22
Jul 23 10,978 10,179 799 44 21 23
Dec 23 4,460 4,266 194 11,080 11,210 -130
Mar 24 0 0 0 0 0 0
May 24 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jul 24 0 0 0 220 220 0
Dec 24 0 0 0 249 249 0
Mar 22 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 114,272 119,923 -5,651 40,838 41,184 -346
Open Open Change
Int Int
Jul 22 65,851 73,115 -7,264
Oct 22 66 52 14
Dec 22 99,337 95,302 4,035
Mar 23 20,549 19,589 960
May 23 7,112 6,697 415
Jul 23 6,569 6,425 144
Dec 23 10,751 10,420 331
Mar 24 166 106 60
May 24 28 24 4
Jul 24 35 36 -1
Dec 24 67 60 7
Mar 22 2 2 0
Total 210,533 211,828 -1,295

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower but trends are still up on the daily charts. Logistics on imports is once again a problem with a lot of boats stuck off shore in China. There are concerns that another freeze in Brazil could develop but there is nothing in the forecast for now. The market is short Oranges and short juice production but is also worried about domestic demand destruction as pills are becoming cheaper again. The greening disease has taken its toll on the US crop and the previous Brazil crop was down significantly due to drought. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good, but it is drier now and some trees are developing stress. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get big rains. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 194.00, 197.00, and 204.00 July. Support is at 181.00, 179.00, and 177.00 July, with resistance at 193.00, 19.00, and 200.00 July.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York was higher and London was lower amid reports of less farm selling from Brazil and less demand for Vietnamese Coffee. Temperatures are near to above normal in Brazil and there are no forecasts for frosts or freezes in the short term but the market fears that a freeze could develop. USDA said that Brazil could produce 64.3 million bags of Coffee this year, significantly higher than last year. It could produce 41.5 million bags of Arabica and 22.8 million bags of Robusta.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.020 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 204.95 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 229.00, 225.00, and 223.00 July, and resistance is at 237.00, 240.00 and 242.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2060, 2030, and 2020 July, and resistance is at 2110, 2130, and 2170 July.

DJ Brazil Coffee Exports Rose 5.1% in May to 2.8M Bags, Cecafe Says
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SÃO PAULO–Brazilian coffee exports rose in May as shipping problems and port bottlenecks eased, according to exporters group Cecafe.
The South American country exported 2.8 million 132-pound bags of coffee last month, an increase of 5.1% from the same month a year earlier, Cecafe said Thursday. Sales abroad of the arabica variety of coffee rose 15.6% to 2.4 million bags, while exports of robusta beans plunged 60% to 121,127 bags.
Exports of ground, roast and soluble coffee fell 1.9% to 277,094 bags, Cecafe said.
Brazil is the world’s biggest producer and exporter of arabica coffee, and the second biggest of the robusta variety, and sales abroad have been hurt in recent months by a lack of capacity on ships and by scarce shipping containers.
“The small increase last month is a reflection of a slight logistical improvement which made it possible to ship the coffee scheduled for May and part of the cargo that was dammed up in ports,” according to Cecafe President Gunter Häusler. But “Brazilian exporters continue to face difficulties in obtaining containers and space on ships, and face very expensive freight costs,” he added.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were higher with London once again leading the way. London White Sugar has been the upside leader as India has limited exports of White Sugar to 10 million tons for the current marketing year and as Brazil is harvesting its crop of Sugarcane and turning most of it into Ethanol. Thailand is still offering and exporting. Reports from India indicated that conditions are generally good for Sugar production. The Indian weather service is predicting a normal monsoon season this year. Support for London also came from ideas of little Sugar coming from Brazil as the mills there are processing for Ethanol and limited European offers in part due to the Ukraine war.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures. ICE NY said that 441 delivery notices were posted against July Sugar 16 futures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1900 and 1850 October. Support is at 1900, 1880, and 1820 October and resistance is at 1960, 1990, and 2000 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 570.00, 556.00, and 548.00 August and resistance is at 581.00, 587.00, and 589.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: New York as lower and London was mostly lower as supply increases and demand does not. Reports of big rains in Ivory Coast supported ideas of a big mid crop production but also brought ideas of moldy deliveries to ports. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa for the year. The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa. Current reports from Ivory Coast indicate that the weather is a good mix of sun and rain so a good midcrop production is expected. The weather is good in Southeast Asia. Ghana arrivals have been below year ago levels.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are much higher today at 5.817 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objective of 2380 and 2300 July. Support is at 2390, 2370, and 2340 July, with resistance at 2470, 2500, and 2540 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1730, 1730, and 1700 July, with resistance at 1770, 1790, and 1810 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322