About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ US Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jun 9
For the week ended Jun 2, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for cotton and rice begins Aug 1. The
marketing year for corn, soybeans and sorghum begins Sep 1. The
marketing year for soymeal and soyoil begins Oct 1.
For wheat and barley, “this year” is the 2022-2023 marketing
year, which began Jun 1, while “last year” is 2021-2022.
Source: USDA
wk’s net change total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this year next year this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 1191.3-a 0.0 4558.8 5512.5 4346.8 0.0
hrw 407.7-b 0.0 1222.9 1666.5 1160.1 0.0
srw 198.4-c 0.0 950.8 995.2 919.6 0.0
hrs 349.1-d 0.0 1427.0 1646.0 1367.0 0.0
white 236.0-e 0.0 893.8 1169.5 835.8 0.0
durum 0.0-f 0.0 64.4 35.2 64.4 0.0
corn 280.4 73.5 59522.1 69297.8 11840.2 5760.4
soybeans 429.9 595.3 59960.5 61540.8 9883.4 12697.4
soymeal 134.4 8.7 10844.3 10440.9 2606.5 420.0
soyoil 1.3 0.0 676.8 671.0 98.1 0.0
upland cotton 259.2 102.9 15512.2 15835.5 5073.4 3362.8
pima cotton 0.4 0.0 476.9 808.6 73.8 52.8
sorghum 10.2 0.0 6804.3 7231.1 914.6 0.0
barley 5.2-g 0.0 13.8 24.7 13.8 0.0
rice 7.6 0.7 2715.4 3194.0 379.3 6.7
-a: Includes new sales activity for May 27-Jun 2 which resulted
in a net increase of 451.0 thousand metric tons. Also includes
740.3 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2021-2022.
-b: Includes new sales activity for May 27-Jun 2 which resulted
in a net increase of 99.3 thousand metric tons. Also includes
308.4 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2021-2022.
-c: Includes new sales activity for May 27-Jun 2 which resulted
in a net increase of 110.7 thousand metric tons. Also includes
87.7 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2021-2022.
-d: Includes new sales activity for May 27-Jun 2 which resulted
in a net increase of 120.3 thousand metric tons. Also includes
228.8 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2021-2022.
-e: Includes new sales activity for May 27-Jun 2 which resulted
in a net increase of 120.7 thousand metric tons. Also includes
115.3 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2021-2022.
-f: Includes new sales activity for May 27-Jun 2 which resulted
in a net decrease of 0.0 thousand metric tons. Also includes
0.0 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2021-2022.
-g: Includes new sales activity for May 27-Jun 2 which resulted
in a net decrease of 0.0 thousand metric tons. Also includes
5.2 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2021-2022.

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Jun 9
Winnipeg — The following are Canadian grain handling
summary statistics for the week ended June 5, 2022. Figures in thousands of
metric tons. Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Wheat Durum Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 2157.0 477.8 192.5 281.6 45.8 1102.9 204.5 237.9 5102.6
Week Ago 2285.6 462.4 210.7 274.9 47.9 1086.8 240.3 335.7 5302.4
Year Ago 2339.2 847.5 298.7 525.5 75.1 1689.8 373.1 90.8 6966.0
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 189.9 52.2 20.0 35.4 2.1 162.2 20.0 10.0 556.9
Week Ago 114.7 12.7 11.4 26.8 1.4 117.4 12.9 8.9 340.3
To Date 12826.7 2140.8 1685.1 3340.6 190.9 12637.4 1743.1 633.5 37663.8
Year Ago 19041.5 5301.2 2469.6 4464.4 421.3 18350.7 3437.5 339.2 57517.7
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 216.0 46.6 0.8 3.4 0.0 71.2 38.0 57.5 481.8
Week Ago 245.7 37.9 0.4 1.5 0.0 34.4 12.6 64.7 436.4
To Date 12441.0 2606.8 167.7 1878.5 27.0 5383.3 1129.7 1726.0 30536.1
Year Ago 19928.8 6340.5 570.6 3395.1 213.2 10093.3 2454.4 1294.1 50216.0
EXPORTS
This Week 234.1 72.8 11.5 4.9 2.6 30.2 56.9 104.2 520.0
Week Ago 168.9 30.8 9.1 7.7 0.7 0.9 26.8 113.9 387.2
To Date 9749.8 2222.6 966.9 1838.2 77.1 4626.2 1136.1 1590.4 25775.5
Year Ago 17157.1 5428.3 1581.8 3583.9 294.5 9648.5 2449.8 1154.0 45926.9
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 111.0 14.6 14.2 28.0 0.9 151.0 6.0 71.0 416.7
Week Ago 51.4 6.1 16.5 22.3 1.0 186.8 5.7 53.6 374.5
To Date 3500.8 380.9 757.6 1523.2 60.9 7833.3 256.2 2365.8 18295.4
Year Ago 3440.7 469.7 680.5 958.6 52.3 9097.7 169.7 737.3 17020.6
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canaryseed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were lower again as the focus remained on Russia and its offer to allow ships into Ukrainian ports to take grain. USDA noted mostly stable conditions for the Winter Wheat crops on Monday but noted Spring Wheat planting remained far behind average. The Winter Wheat harvest is underway in the US. The government in Russia said again that it was willing to discuss terms with the west for shipments of Ukraine grain to get safe passage, but ideas are that the terms Russia will ask for will be so onerous that they will be rejected. The UN said negotiations are making progress but there was still a long way to go before any deal could be concluded. Minneapolis Spring Wheat futures were lower in sympathy with the Winter Wheat markets but the weather remained bad for planting in the northern Great Plains and the Canadian Prairies. The US western Great Plains got some rainfall and the rains fell in some of the areas most in need of some precipitation. It is turning warmer and drier farther north to give hope to Spring Wheat farmers that they can plant crops. Europe is too hot and dry and India and Pakistan are both past major heat waves and dry conditions
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Northern areas should see isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers in eastern areas. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 1044, 1037, and 1027 July, with resistance at 1108, 1115, and 1134 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 1130, 1119, and 1113 July, with resistance at 1185, 1192, and 1213 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 1212, 1198, and 1180 July, and resistance is at 1248, 1256, and 1260 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower again yesterday on the good progress and condition of the crops shown by USDA in the Monday reports. Trends are turning down on the daily charts. The weekly export sales report showed bad demand yesterday. Growing conditions are said to be good. There are still ideas of less production of US Rice this year but the good conditions are starting to limit loss ideas. Trends are trying to turn up on the daily charts but are still mixed overall. The planting pace is catching up to normal, but acreage estimates are still down for the next crop. Some traders note that it will be difficult to move Rice at current price levels and they are worried about domestic and export demand moving forward.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1629 and 1580 July. Support is at 1656, 1628, and 1615 July and resistance is at 1677, 1689, and 1704 July.
Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1629 and 1580 July. Support is at 1656, 1628, and 1615 July and resistance is at 1677, 1689, and 1704 July.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed mixed with nearby months a little higher and new crop months slightly lower. Oats were higher in recovery trading. The Corn planting is about done now and the crop has emerged under what was considered good conditions . The areas left to be planted are primarily in the Dakotas and might not get planted as the insurance planting dates have passed. The risk to plant now would be much higher without the insurance and the high costs of inputs. There are also pockets of area left to be planted in the big production states. The weather was variable last week with periods of rain and very cool temperatures and then warm and dry conditions and more of the same is expected this week. Many think the top end of the yield has been taken off the Corn crop due to the delayed planting but others look at the crop condition rating and expect improved yields. It already thinks there is reduced planted area because of the March planning intentions reports from USDA and the bad planting weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 802, 867, and 868 July. Support is at 756, 736, and 726 July, and resistance is at 783, 787, and 797 July. Trends in Oats are mixed Support is at 651, 644, and 625 July, and resistance is at 677, 695, and 708 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher as the US cash market runs low on Soybeans and farmers are reluctant sellers. Soybean Oil was lower but still found support in part from talk that President Biden plans to retroactively increase bio fuels use to help bring down the prices of Crude Oil and petroleum products. There is less Chinese demand for Soy products due to the lockdowns there although China is starting to lift the lockdowns now. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America. They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs. Most of the current buying is for next year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1806, 1816, and 1871 July. Support is at 1758, 1749, and 1728 July, and resistance is at 1792, 1804, and 1816 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 434.00, 442.00 and 450.00 July. Support is at 418.00, 417.00, and 404.00 July, and resistance is at 430.00 436.00, and 439.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 8500, and 8680 July. Support is at 8030, 7650, and 7500 July, with resistance at 8340, 8460, and 8680 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was a little lower last week despite ideas of less Malaysian production due to worker shortages from Covid and on the potential for strong exports for the month from Malaysia. The Indonesian government is now imposing a domestic reserve on exporters to limit export sales. Some analysts think Palm Oil is topping out anyway due to reduced demand ideas. Hopes for better demand from India keep the market supported, but Chinese demand could be less. A new Covid outbreak is reported in China and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports. The economy could slow down and affect demand. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was lower despite the strength in Chicago Soyb4eans and world vegetable oils were generally lower. The crops are going in the ground and the growing conditions are much improved. It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting but better planting weather is coming now as it is now much warmer. There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well. Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 1102.00, 1090.00, and 1083.00 July, with resistance at 1144.00, 1177.00, and 1195.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 6050 and 5760 September. Support is at 6030, 5830, and 5700 September, with resistance at 6350, 6420, and 6450 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry today. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May
103 July
195 July
120 July
146 July

June
103 July
195 July
120 July
146 July

July
97 July
175 July
80 July
158 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 9
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 1148.20 25.20 July 2022 up 13.20
Basis: Thunder Bay 1164.00 45.00 July 2022 dn 4.00
Basis: Vancouver 1184.00 65.00 July 2022 dn 4.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 10
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1617.50 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1512.50 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1392.50 -45.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1620.00 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1515.00 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1395.00 -45.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 1545.00 -35.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 1260.00 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 6550.00 -150.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 380.00 -13.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.3997)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 10
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 112,309 lots, or 6.99 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 6,270 6,282 6,202 6,229 6,308 6,252 -56 76,001 78,360
Sep-22 6,235 6,235 6,176 6,178 6,227 6,204 -23 28,966 63,925
Nov-22 5,995 6,016 5,974 5,983 6,013 5,991 -22 7,103 32,423
Jan-23 5,962 5,985 5,947 5,958 5,993 5,964 -29 215 5,090
Mar-23 5,917 5,943 5,917 5,943 5,955 5,931 -24 9 119
May-23 5,950 5,954 5,940 5,940 5,975 5,947 -28 15 89
Corn
Turnover: 454,479 lots, or 12.99 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 2,809 2,819 2,795 2,814 2,831 2,808 -23 43,335 174,812
Sep-22 2,852 2,872 2,845 2,867 2,877 2,860 -17 355,279 1,372,476
Nov-22 2,868 2,885 2,862 2,877 2,892 2,874 -18 15,270 116,133
Jan-23 2,876 2,896 2,875 2,889 2,902 2,887 -15 26,490 134,502
Mar-23 2,885 2,908 2,882 2,900 2,915 2,895 -20 13,068 76,959
May-23 2,932 2,946 2,927 2,939 2,953 2,935 -18 1,037 7,061
Soymeal
Turnover: 982,108 lots, or 41.17 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 4,277 4,362 4,262 4,347 4,281 4,309 28 8,994 47,783
Aug-22 4,299 4,400 4,294 4,384 4,317 4,346 29 35,985 205,048
Sep-22 4,195 4,286 4,186 4,264 4,209 4,239 30 750,128 1,360,227
Nov-22 4,093 4,173 4,083 4,161 4,108 4,126 18 40,047 132,372
Dec-22 4,016 4,084 4,005 4,064 4,024 4,050 26 6,721 57,884
Jan-23 3,920 3,990 3,909 3,972 3,928 3,951 23 114,393 372,381
Mar-23 3,775 3,837 3,762 3,825 3,776 3,797 21 18,313 31,052
May-23 3,641 3,697 3,631 3,685 3,642 3,671 29 7,527 52,813
Palm Oil
Turnover: 654,034 lots, or 75.76 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-22 – – – 15,214 15,214 15,214 0 0 190
Jul-22 12,982 13,182 12,960 13,040 13,352 13,064 -288 11,144 15,035
Aug-22 12,036 12,272 12,036 12,118 12,478 12,184 -294 18,549 56,547
Sep-22 11,514 11,678 11,500 11,512 11,850 11,586 -264 568,782 357,619
Oct-22 11,322 11,470 11,300 11,304 11,694 11,380 -314 11,793 39,147
Nov-22 11,152 11,286 11,104 11,120 11,534 11,192 -342 9,322 23,423
Dec-22 11,012 11,122 10,942 10,958 11,302 11,028 -274 4,497 5,285
Jan-23 10,856 11,000 10,816 10,846 11,148 10,904 -244 29,124 69,797
Feb-23 10,774 10,790 10,770 10,790 10,890 10,776 -114 4 48
Mar-23 10,700 10,746 10,680 10,680 10,864 10,698 -166 15 155
Apr-23 – – – 10,630 10,768 10,630 -138 0 120
May-23 10,510 10,640 10,500 10,524 10,748 10,562 -186 804 4,912
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 575,682 lots, or 68.23 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 12,188 12,360 12,156 12,254 12,462 12,234 -228 3,158 8,118
Aug-22 12,062 12,278 12,062 12,134 12,302 12,164 -138 13,330 73,354
Sep-22 11,780 11,994 11,770 11,886 11,992 11,892 -100 480,717 416,963
Nov-22 11,606 11,798 11,596 11,700 11,826 11,714 -112 23,470 51,884
Dec-22 11,498 11,688 11,498 11,596 11,712 11,614 -98 14,840 16,452
Jan-23 11,388 11,572 11,386 11,484 11,572 11,488 -84 28,005 80,101
Mar-23 11,118 11,290 11,118 11,220 11,306 11,236 -70 10,804 13,223
May-23 10,804 10,924 10,784 10,860 10,932 10,870 -62 1,358 9,557
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322