Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
DJ U.S. April Coffee, Cocoa Imports-June 7
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Apr 2022—- —-Mar 2022—-
-coffee- kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coffee, unroasted 141,354,609 311,686,913 127,040,737 280,124,825
coffee, roasted 7,764,313 17,120,310 8,514,987 18,775,546
instant 6,701,594 14,777,015 6,940,452 15,303,697
cocoa beans 56,341,087 124,232,097 39,800,313 87,759,690
10 lbs or over 3,061,722 6,751,097 2,708,680 5,972,639
for retail candy 0 0 0 0
cocoa butter 10,370,894 22,867,821 8,964,449 19,766,610
not defatted 4,545,729 10,023,332 6,226,540 13,729,521
defatted 4,758,935 10,493,452 7,701,460 16,981,719
unsweetened 9,650,827 21,280,074 7,861,148 17,333,831
sweetened 13,624 30,041 28,139 62,046
coating 5,278,689 11,639,509 6,037,277 13,312,196
chocolate 12,335,002 27,198,679 12,977,216 28,614,761
General Comments: Cotton was mixed yesterday, with July a little lower but the new crop months a little higher on ideas of reduced production in the western Great Plains after a very hot and dry period in West Texas and the rest of the region. It has also been hot and dry in India and crops grown there are thought to be under stress as well. The Indian weather is cooler now and the weather service expects a normal monsoon this year. There were ideas that production potential is more stable now due to some big rains after the hot and dry weather episode in West Texas and the rest of the western Great Plains. China port and city closures and domestic difficulties caused by renewed Covid lockdowns are causing ideas of less demand as is a stronger US Dollar but news reports indicate that China is trying to reopen now.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and near normal temperatures and Southeast will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 131.95 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,087 bales, from 1,087 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 136.10, 134.40, and 133.30 July, with resistance of 142.00, 142.80 and 145.00 July.
WASDE Trade Estimates:
2022-23: Avg Low High May Avg vs Prior
US Production 16.77 16.00 17.90 16.50 0.271
US Exports 14.59 14.20 15.00 14.50 0.090
US End Stocks 3.11 2.60 4.00 2.90 0.205
World Production 121.25 119.50 124.00 121.06 0.193
World Consumption 121.95 121.00 123.00 121.99 -0.043
World End Stocks 82.90 81.50 85.82 82.82 0.076
General Comments: FCOJ was mixed, with nearby months a little higher and deferred months a little lower. Logistics on imports is once again a problem with a lot of boats stuck off shore in China. There are concerns that another freeze in Brazil could develop but there is nothing in the forecast for now. The market is short Oranges and short juice production but is also worried about domestic demand destruction as pills are becoming cheaper again. The greening disease has taken its toll on the US crop and the previous Brazil crop was down significantly due to drought. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good, but it is drier now and some trees are developing stress. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 173.00, 166.00, and 163.00 July, with resistance at 183.00, 186.00, and 189.00 July.
General Comments: New York and London were lower on a stronger Brazilian Real against the US Dollar and despite reports of less farm selling from Brazil. Temperatures right now are near to above normal in Brazil and there are no forecasts for frosts or freezes in the short term. The Ukraine war is supporting ideas of less demand from Europe generally and Ukraine and Russia. Demand from China is thought to be less due to the war against Covid.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.028 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 204.34 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with isolated showers to the south with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 229.00, 225.00, and 223.00 July, and resistance is at 240.00, 242.00 and 245.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2160, 2210, and 2360 July. Support is at 2120, 2090, and 2060 July, and resistance is at 2150, 2170, and 2190 July.
General Comments: New York and London were lower and trends turned mixed on the daily charts after starting an up move on Monday. London White Sugar has been the upside leader as India has limited exports of White Sugar for the current marketing year and as Brazil is harvesting its crop of Sugarcane and turning most of it into Ethanol. It turned into a downside leader yesterday. Thailand is still offering and exporting but can’t make up for the losses from India and Brazil. Also, there will be less Sugar from Ukraine and Russia for the European market.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with isolated showers to the south. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1900 and 1850 October. Support is at 1900, 1880, and 1830 October and resistance is at 1960, 1990, and 2000 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 560.00, 548.00, and 546.00 August and resistance is at 581.00, 587.00, and 599.00 August.
General Comments: New York and London were lower in consolidation trading. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa for the year. The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa. Current reports from Ivory Coast indicate that the weather is a good mix of sun and rain so a good midcrop production is expected. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to bel0ow normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.476 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2450, 2430, and 2390 July, with resistance at 2500, 2540, and 2570 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1730, 1710, and 1700 July, with resistance at 1770, 1790, and 1810 July.