About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2022 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Friday.
U.S. 2022 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA May USDA 2021
Corn Production 14,442 14,283-14,542 14,460 15,115
Corn Yield 177.0 175.0-178.1 177.0 177.0
Soybean Production 4,638 4,610-4,655 4,640 4,435
Soybean Yield 51.5 51.4-52.0 51.5 51.4
Corn Soybean
Production Yield Production Yield
AgriSompo North America 14,460 177.0 4,640 51.5
Allendale 14,460 4,640
Doane 14,460 178.1 4,640 51.5
EDF Man 14,460 177.0 4,640 51.5
Futures Intl 14,460 177.0 4,640 51.5
Grain Cycles 14,460 177.0 4,640 51.5
Linn 14,455 176.6 4,610 51.5
Sid Love Consulting 14,460 177.0 4,640 51.5
Midland Research 14,460 177.0 4,640 51.5
Midwest Market Solutions 14,298 175.0 4,633 51.4
North Star 14,283 177.0 4,640 51.5
Prime Ag 14,460 177.0 4,640 51.5
Risk Mgmt Commodities 14,460 177.0 4,640 51.5
StoneX 14,393 177.0 4,655 51.5
US Commodities 14,460 177.0 4,640 51.5
Vantage RM 14,460 177.0 4,640 51.5
Western Milling 14,542 178.0 4,633 52.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 14,460 177.0 4,640 51.5

DJ U.S. Wheat Production Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2022-23 U.S. wheat production, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated production forecasts at noon on Friday.
2022-23 WHEAT PRODUCTION
Average Range USDA May USDA 2021-22
All Wheat 1,726 1,628-1,810 1,729 1,646
Winter Wheat 1,181 1,157-1,220 1,174 1,277
Hard Red Winter 594 571-685 590 749
Soft Red Winter 357 344-375 354 361
White Winter 229 170-245 230 167
All Wheat Winter Wheat Hard-Red Soft-Red White
Allendale 1,710 1,197 612 350 235
Doane 1,750 1,195 600 360 235
EDF Man 1,735 1,180 585 360 235
Futures Intl 1,751 1,196 598 366 232
Grain Cycles 1,727 1,177 590 353 234
Linn 1,810 1,220 685 375 170
Sid Love Consulting 1,699 1,164 580 354 230
Midland Research 1,715 1,160 572 356 232
Midwest Market Solutions 1,720 1,174 580 344 230
North Star 1,720 1,180 590 360 230
RJ O’Brien 1,737 1,164 583 353 229
Risk Mgmt Commodities 1,729 1,194 590 354 230
StoneX 1,628 1,157 571 356 230
US Commodities 1,734 1,180 595 355 230
Vantage RM 1,715 1,160 576 354 230
Western Milling 1,760 1,210 600 365 245
Zaner Ag 1699 1,174 590 354 230

DJ U.S. June Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2021-22 and 2022-23, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2021-22
Average Range USDA May
Corn 1,438 1,386-1,485 1,440
Soybeans 217 175-235 235
Wheat 661 645-693 655
2022-23
Average Range USDA May
Corn 1,337 1,198-1,425 1,360
Soybeans 295 250-355 310
Wheat 622 580-725 619
2021-22 2022-23
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSompo North America 1,440 215 655 1,365 290 615
Allendale 1,485 200 693 1,425 276 628
Doane 1,390 210 650 1,310 290 610
EDF Man 1,440 235 655 1,360 310 630
Futures Intl 1,415 235 645 1,335 310 643
Grain Cycles 1,440 235 655 1,335 310 627
Linn 1,410 175 688 1,390 324 725
Sid Love Consulting 1,440 235 655 1,360 310 609
Midland Research 1,440 175 655 1,360 250 605
Midwest Market Solutions 1,440 225 655 1,198 270 605
Northstar 1,440 220 670 1,280 295 640
Prime Ag 1,440 235 655 1,360 310 619
RJ O’Brien 1,459 217 650 1,240 275 603
Risk Mgmt Commodities 1,440 205 660 1,360 280 580
StoneX 1,438 196 653 1,310 355 595
US Commodities 1,450 230 665 1,307 280 605
Vantage RM 1,440 210 670 1,400 280 634
Western Milling 1,386 235 664 1,288 285 640
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,480 235 670 1,420 310 604

DJ June World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2021-22 and 2022-23, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2021-22
Average Range USDA May
Corn 308.9 298.0-311.0 309.4
Soybeans 85.0 83.1-86.2 85.2
Wheat 278.9 272.0-281.3 279.7
2022-23
Average Range USDA May
Corn 305.0 300.0-309.4 305.1
Soybeans 99.8 97.5-102.9 99.6
Wheat 267.6 260.0-277.2 267.0
2021-22 2022-23
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSompo North America 309.4 85.2 279.3 303.1 99.5 266.8
Allendale 310.6 84.8 281.1 307.2 97.5 270.6
EDF Man 310.0 85.0 281.0 307.0 101.0 269.0
Futures Intl 309.4 86.2 278.5 303.0 99.5 264.5
Grain Cycles 311.0 85.0 281.0 307.0 101.0 264.0
Linn 298.0 86.0 279.0 300.0 100.0 273.0
Midwest Market Solutions 310.0 85.3 279.8 304.9 100.0 269.0
Northstar 308.0 84.6 280.0 300.0 98.5 260.0
Prime Ag 310.0 85.0 275.0 308.0 100.0 263.0
Risk Mgmt Commodities 309.4 83.2 272.0 303.0 99.7 260.0
StoneX 309.4 83.1 281.3 305.9 102.9 269.2
US Commodities 308.5 85.0 280.0 304.0 99.3 268.0
Western Milling 310.0 86.0 280.0 307.0 100.0 272.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 310.6 85.5 277.2 309.4 98.4 277.2

DJ June Brazil, Argentina Corn, Soybean Production Estimates – Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for Brazil and Argentina corn and soybean production for 2021-22, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates on Friday at noon ET.
Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA May
Corn 114.6 110.0-116.8 116.0
Soybeans 124.8 123.0-125.5 125.0
Corn Soybeans
AgriSompo North America 114.8 124.6
Allendale 114.0 125.0
Doane 110.0 123.0
EDF Man 116.0 125.0
Futures Intl 116.0 125.0
Linn 112.0 125.0
Midland Research 113.0 125.0
Midwest Market Solutions 115.5 124.5
North Star 114.0 125.0
Prime Ag 116.0 125.0
Risk Mgmt Commodities 114.0 125.0
StoneX 116.8 124.4
US Commodities 116.3 125.5
Western Milling 116.0 125.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 115.0 125.0
Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA May
Corn 52.2 50.0-53.5 53.0
Soybeans 42.2 41.0-43.0 42.0
Corn Soybeans
AgriSompo North America 52.8 41.9
Allendale 52.5 43.0
Doane 51.0 42.0
EDF Man 52.0 42.0
Futures Intl 53.0 43.0
Linn 50.0 43.0
Midland Research 51.0 41.0
Midwest Market Solutions 53.0 42.0
North Star 53.0 42.0
Prime Ag 53.0 42.0
Risk Mgmt Commodities 53.0 42.0
StoneX 50.0 42.0
US Commodities 53.5 42.0
Western Milling 52.0 43.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 53.0 42.0

DJ Brazil Raises 2021-2022 Soybean Estimate to 124.3 M Tons
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian crop agency Conab raised its estimate for soybean production for the 2021-2022 growing season as harvesting of the oilseeds was virtually finished.
Brazilian farmers produced 124.3 million metric tons of soybeans this season, the agency said Wednesday.
In May, the agency forecast a crop of 123.8 million tons. Brazil produced 138.2 million tons of soybeans in 2020-2021.
The sharp decline in soybean production compared with the previous year was due to unusually hot and dry weather in several of Brazil’s southern states. The hit to output was only partially compensated by higher productivity in the state of Mato Grosso, which is the country’s biggest producer of the oilseeds, Conab said.
Brazilian farmers will produce 115.2 million metric tons of corn this season, the agency said. In May, the agency forecast a crop of 114.6 million tons. Brazil produced 87.1 million tons of corn in 2020-2021.
A drought in several southern states during the 2020-2021 season slashed corn production last year.

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were lower as the focus remained on Russia and its offer to allow ships into Ukrainian ports to take grain. It is also harvest time in the US and prices normally move down at this time no matter how poor the harvest is. This will be a poor harvest but the weak demand and cheaper offers into the world market from Russia are helping to keep futures on the defensive. Russia bombed Kiev and another port in Ukraine over the weekend so no one thinks that a solution to the crisis is coming anytime soon now. The UN said negotiations are making progress but there was still a long way to go before any deal could be concluded. USDA noted mostly stable conditions for the Winter Wheat crops yesterday as the harvest is underway but noted Spring Wheat planting remained far behind average. Minneapolis Spring Wheat futures weather remained bad for planting in the northern Great Plains and the Canadian Prairies although it was drier over the weekend. Europe is too hot and dry and India and Pakistan both got major heat waves and dry conditions although it is cooler now.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Northern areas should see isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers in eastern areas. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 1059, 1037, and 1027 July, with resistance at 1108, 1115, and 1134 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 1136, 1119, and 1113 July, with resistance at 1185, 1192, and 1213 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 1214, 1190, and 1180 July, and resistance is at 1248, 1256, and 1288 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower yesterday and gave back part of the Monday rally. Trends are mixed in the market. Growing conditions in US areas continue to be good. There are still ideas of less production of US Rice this year but the good conditions are starting to limit loss ideas. The planting pace is catching up to normal, but acreage estimates are still down for the next crop. Some traders note that it will be difficult to move Rice at current price levels and they are worried about domestic and export demand moving forward.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1677, 1672, and 1661 July and resistance is at 1741, 1764, and 1782 July.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jun 8
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 15.27 9.67 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 15.07 10.28 0.00
Brokens 9.69 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:
U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 51.88/18.02 6.96
Medium Grain/Short Grain 62.00/9.70 7.46

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was higher and Oats were lower yesterday as the US crops got into the ground and emerged under what was considered very good conditions by USDA. However, there could be more than 2.0 million acres of unplanted Corn ground this year in the Dakotas and into western Minnesota. The market reacted positively to the good progress and condition and a bullish reaction to bearish news is often a sign that higher prices are coming in the short term. The government in Russia said again that it was willing to discuss terms with the west for shipments of Ukraine grain to get safe passage, but ideas are that the terms Russia will ask for will be so onerous that they will be rejected. The UN said it is negotiating with Russia and progress is being made but that any deal was still far away. USDA noted that the areas left to be planted are primarily in the Dakotas and might not get planted as the insurance planting dates have passed. The risk to plant now would be much higher without the insurance and the high costs of inputs. There are also pockets of area left to be planted in the big production states. The weather will be variable this week with periods of rain and very cool temperatures and then warm and dry. Many think the top end of the yield has been taken off the Corn crop due to the delayed planting. It already thinks there is reduced planted area because of the March planning intentions reports from USDA and the bad planting weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 736, 726, and 721 July, and resistance is at 772, 780, and 787 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 663, 644, and 625 July, and resistance is at 708, 709, and 716 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher as the US cash market runs low on Soybeans and farmers are reluctant sellers. There is less Chinese demand for Soy products due to the lockdowns there although China is trying to lift the lockdowns. Soybean Oil is not going to restaurants as quickly as in the past due to Covid lockdowns and Meal demand is down as well as less meat is being produced for the same reason. There are still fears of a cooling economy in China. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America. They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs. Most of the current buying is for next year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1690, 1674, and 1665 July, and resistance is at 1741, 1749, and 1768 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 408.00 and 390.00 July. Support is at 404.00, 395.00, and 393.00 July, and resistance is at 420.00 426.00, and 429.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 8500, and 8680 July. Support is at 8030, 7650, and 7500 July, with resistance at 8270, 8460, and 8680 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher on ideas of less Malaysian production due to worker shortages from Covid and on the potential for strong exports for the month from Malaysia. The market was closed today for a holiday. The Indonesian government is now imposing a domestic reserve on exporters to limit export sales. Some analysts think Palm Oil is topping out anyway due to reduced demand ideas. Hopes for better demand from India keep the market supported, but Chinese demand could be less. A new Covid outbreak is reported in China and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports. The economy could slow down and affect demand. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was lower yesterday on demand concerns and a stronger Canadian Dollar as planting progress has been slow in the Prairies. The crops are going in the ground and the growing conditions are much improved. StatsCan said that Canadian farmers intend to reduce planted area for Canola this year and use the area to plant Wheat instead.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 1102.00, 1092.00, and 1083.00 July, with resistance at 1144.00, 1173.00, and 1195.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 6200, 6030, and 5840 September, with resistance at 6450, 6640, and 6760 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry today. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May
103 July
195 July
120 July
146 July

June
103 July
195 July
120 July
146 July

July
97 July
175 July
80 July
158 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 7
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 1143.70 20.00 July 2022 dn 40.60
Basis: Thunder Bay 1158.10 45.00 July 2022 dn 10.60
Basis: Vancouver 1178.10 65.00 July 2022 dn 10.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 8
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1697.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1577.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1477.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1700.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1580.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1480.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 1605.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 1320.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 6850.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 399.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.392)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 08
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 112,322 lots, or 6.97 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 6,265 6,294 6,237 6,288 6,270 6,267 -3 60,920 91,477
Sep-22 6,176 6,222 6,160 6,204 6,192 6,195 3 36,860 59,206
Nov-22 5,980 6,023 5,967 6,007 5,992 5,999 7 13,859 31,435
Jan-23 5,951 5,991 5,945 5,973 5,965 5,969 4 657 5,131
Mar-23 5,946 5,956 5,945 5,948 5,954 5,948 -6 5 115
May-23 5,958 5,976 5,958 5,961 5,955 5,962 7 21 74
Corn
Turnover: 551,937 lots, or 15.95 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 2,839 2,858 2,837 2,846 2,839 2,847 8 85,943 202,177
Sep-22 2,891 2,909 2,884 2,896 2,886 2,896 10 395,829 1,332,275
Nov-22 2,888 2,913 2,887 2,904 2,889 2,899 10 17,655 112,974
Jan-23 2,895 2,921 2,894 2,911 2,894 2,909 15 37,383 129,324
Mar-23 2,902 2,925 2,898 2,920 2,897 2,913 16 14,315 73,039
May-23 2,936 2,959 2,928 2,953 2,929 2,947 18 812 7,237
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,174,804 lots, or 48.35 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 4,198 4,279 4,166 4,261 4,196 4,220 24 36,799 58,837
Aug-22 4,233 4,315 4,192 4,296 4,239 4,251 12 45,339 208,769
Sep-22 4,127 4,209 4,084 4,193 4,129 4,154 25 890,945 1,267,591
Nov-22 4,032 4,106 3,998 4,097 4,035 4,047 12 46,949 133,130
Dec-22 3,968 4,029 3,933 4,015 3,959 3,977 18 9,400 57,840
Jan-23 3,868 3,934 3,834 3,922 3,867 3,893 26 107,445 375,228
Mar-23 3,714 3,786 3,687 3,768 3,714 3,739 25 22,370 30,039
May-23 3,591 3,650 3,570 3,634 3,593 3,602 9 15,557 53,515
Palm Oil
Turnover: 774,361 lots, or 94.72 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-22 16,100 16,100 15,800 15,800 15,820 16,086 266 53 190
Jul-22 14,000 14,234 13,772 13,818 13,936 13,960 24 33,118 20,091
Aug-22 12,820 13,088 12,738 12,810 12,820 12,892 72 16,145 55,469
Sep-22 12,084 12,382 12,044 12,144 12,082 12,186 104 671,459 399,831
Oct-22 11,830 12,080 11,782 11,868 11,778 11,918 140 9,847 37,951
Nov-22 11,596 11,870 11,576 11,674 11,572 11,704 132 10,583 22,088
Dec-22 11,440 11,684 11,392 11,532 11,402 11,532 130 2,984 3,627
Jan-23 11,248 11,500 11,224 11,328 11,238 11,334 96 28,803 66,970
Feb-23 11,050 11,182 11,050 11,182 11,140 11,062 -78 11 45
Mar-23 11,138 11,216 11,138 11,160 11,034 11,180 146 8 148
Apr-23 11,010 11,060 10,964 10,992 10,920 11,018 98 12 99
May-23 10,762 10,920 10,744 10,850 10,746 10,840 94 1,338 4,588
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 736,779 lots, or 88.95 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 12,332 12,660 12,332 12,550 12,284 12,402 118 5,007 11,629
Aug-22 12,180 12,514 12,144 12,420 12,094 12,360 266 25,217 74,708
Sep-22 11,966 12,280 11,952 12,122 11,916 12,112 196 623,508 486,878
Nov-22 11,768 12,034 11,740 11,910 11,700 11,898 198 16,939 50,971
Dec-22 11,642 11,930 11,634 11,794 11,586 11,768 182 14,438 16,544
Jan-23 11,540 11,806 11,512 11,680 11,478 11,662 184 39,119 77,981
Mar-23 11,206 11,506 11,206 11,388 11,212 11,380 168 9,693 13,685
May-23 10,820 11,052 10,820 10,960 10,808 10,902 94 2,858 7,696
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322