About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Crop Progress
Date 29-May 22-May 2021 Avg
Cotton Planted 84 68 70 76
Cotton Squaring 11 7 9 10
Corn Planted 94 86 98 92
Corn Emerged 78 61 89 81
Soybeans Planted 78 66 89 79
Soybeans Emerged 56 39 74 59
Sorghum Planted 56 40 50 55
Rice Emerged 89 79 90 89
Peanuts Planted 88 79 86 87
Sugarbeets Planted 94 75 100 100
Sunflowers Planted 33 21 57 50
Oats Planted 94 88 99 97
Oats Emerged 80 71 94 91
Oats Headed 26 36 33
Winter Wheat Headed 79 72 84 84
Winter Wheat Harvested 5 2 6
Spring Wheat Planted 82 73 99 97
Spring Wheat Emerged 55 42 89 83
Barley Planted 91 8598 97 93
Barley Emerged 73 62 86 84

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 2 13 37 43 5
Cotton Last Week 3 13 38 40 4
Cotton Last Year 1 14 39 41 5

Corn This Week 1 3 23 61 12
Corn Last Week
Corn Last Year 1 4 23 58 14

Winter Wheat This Week 23 17 30 26 4
Winter Wheat Last Week 23 17 31 25 4
Winter Wheat Last Year 5 13 32 42 8

Sorghum This Week 5 11 38 43 3
Sorghyum Last Week
Sorghum Last Year 1 2 23 66 8

Rice This Week 0 2 26 57 15
Rice Last Week 0 2 27 57 14
Rice Last Year 0 1 24 82 13

Peanuts This Week 1 6 20 64 9
Peanuts Last Week 0 6 21 68 5
Peanuts Last Year 1 7 31 55 6

Oats This Week 12 10 23 47 8
Oats Last Week 13 10 26 45 6
Oats Last Year 5 13 36 39 7

Barley This Week 3 16 35 38 8
Barley Last Week 2 12 40 38 8
Barley Last Year 6 12 39 40 3

Pastures and Ranges This Week 19 24 29 25 3
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 22 24 30 22 2
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 17 20 28 27 8

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher yesterday on ideas of reduced production in the western Great Plains after a very hot and dry period in West Texas and the rest of the region. It has also been hot and dry in India and crops grown there are thought to be under stress as well. The Indian weather is cooler now and the weather service expects a normal monsoon this year. There were ideas that production potential is slipping further due to the hot and dry weather in West Texas and the rest of the western Great Plains. The export sales report was strong when it was released on Friday morning. Chinese demand could become less due to the Covid lockdowns there be trimming imports due to Covid and has closed a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation. China port closures and domestic difficulties caused by renewed Covid lockdowns are causing ideas of less demand as is a stronger US Dollar but news reports indicate that China is trying to reopen now.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and near normal temperatures and Southeast will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 132.74 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,087 bales, from 1,087 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 136.20, 134.40, and 133.30 July, with resistance of 142.00, 142.80 and 145.00 July.

DJ U.S. April Cotton Exports-May 7
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Apr 22 Mar 22 Feb 22 Apr 21
Upland, under 1 inch 15,964,995 9,185,877 8,363,956 15,961,073
1 to 1 1/8 inch 124,400,661 128,431,547 110,732,601 122,558,363
upland 1 1/8 and over 8,540,532 8,012,280 7,798,140 11,375,836
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 262,193,255 278,570,603 230,153,878 195,222,401
All cotton 411,099,443 424,200,307 357,048,575 345,117,673
——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
Apr 22 Mar 22 Feb 22 Apr 21
Upland, under 1 inch 73,327 42,190 38,415 73,309
1 to 1 1/8 inch 571,368 589,881 508,591 562,906
upland 1 1/8 and over 39,226 36,800 35,817 52,249
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 1,204,244 1,279,464 1,057,088 896,649
All cotton 1,888,164 1,948,336 1,639,911 1,585,113

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was mixed, with nearby months a little higher and deferred months a little lower. Logistics on imports is once again a problem with a lot of boats stuck off shore in China. There are concerns that another freeze in Brazil could develop but there is nothing in the forecast for now. The market is short Oranges and short juice production but is also worried about domestic demand destruction as pills are becoming cheaper again. The greening disease has taken its toll on the US crop and the previous Brazil crop was down significantly due to drought. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good, but it is drier now and some trees are developing stress. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 173.00, 166.00, and 163.00 July, with resistance at 183.00, 186.00, and 189.00 July.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York was higher, and London was mixed on a mixed Brazilian Real against the US Dollar and reports of less farm selling from Brazil. Temperatures right now are near to above normal in Brazil and there are no forecasts for frosts or freezes in the short term butte market is fearful about a freeze after the freeze event last year. The Ukraine war is supporting ideas of less demand from Europe generally and Ukraine and Russia. Demand from China is thought to be less due to the war against Covid.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.028 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 206.40 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with isolated showers to the south with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 232.00, 229.00, and 225.00 July, and resistance is at 242.00, 245.00 and 250.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2160, 2210, and 2360 July. Support is at 2120, 2090, and 2060 July, and resistance is at 2150, 2170, and 2190 July.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were higher. London White Sugar has been the upside leader as India has limited exports of White Sugar for the current marketing year and as Brazil is harvesting its crop of Sugarcane and turning most of it into Ethanol. Thailand is still offering and exporting but can’t make up for the losses from India and Brazil. India said it could have over 6 million tons in ending stocks due to the move but it has been very hot and very dry there so the production for the next crop might be much less. However, reports from India indicated that conditions are generally good for Sugar production after the hot and dry period went away a few weeks ago. The Indian weather service is predicting a normal monsoon season this year. Support for London also came from ideas of little Sugar coming from Brazil as the mills there are processing for Ethanol. Also, there will be less Sugar from Ukraine and Russia for the European market.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with isolated showers to the south. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1960, 1930, and 1880 October and resistance is at 2000, 2020, and 2030 October. Trends in London are up with objectives of 644.00 August. Support is at 587.00, 581.00, and 569.00 August and resistance is at 604.00, 610.00, and 616.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were higher along with most commodities markets yesterday. Reports of big rains in Ivory Coast supported ideas of a big mid crop production but also brought ideas of moldy deliveries to ports. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa for the year. The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa. Current reports from Ivory Coast indicate that the weather is a good mix of sun and rain so a good midcrop production is expected. The weather is good in Southeast Asia. Ghana arrivals have been below year ago levels.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to bel0ow normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.435 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2450, 2430, and 2390 July, with resistance at 2540, 2570, and 2620 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1730, 1710, and 1700 July, with resistance at 1770, 1790, and 1810 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322