About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower last week on forecasts for some showers in West Texas and the rest of the Great Plains and amid better than expected crop conditions after a very hot and dry period in West Texas and the rest of the western Great Plains. It has also been hot and dry in India and crops grown there are thought to be under stress as well. The Indian weather is cooler now. There were ideas that production potential is slipping further due to the hot and dry weather in West Texas and the rest of the western Great Plains. The export sales report was strong when it was released on Friday morning. Chinese demand could become less due to the Covid lockdowns there be trimming imports due to Covid and has closed a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation. China port closures and domestic difficulties caused by renewed Covid lockdowns are causing ideas of less demand as is a stronger US Dollar.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and near normal temperatures and Southeast will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 133.18 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,087 bales, from 1,087 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 134.50 and 130.00 July. Support is at 134.10, 133.30, and 132.30 July, with resistance of 142.00, 142.80 and 145.00 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 31, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 287,123
: Positions :
: 58,082 12,603 72,812 60,046 182,474 77,683 10,745 268,623 278,633: 18,500 8,489
: Changes from: May 24, 2022 (Change in open interest: 4,838) :
: -885 416 2,822 4,026 1,574 -695 -426 5,268 4,386: -430 452
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.2 4.4 25.4 20.9 63.6 27.1 3.7 93.6 97.0: 6.4 3.0
: Total Traders: 286 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 127 41 92 54 62 46 21 252 196:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was slightly lower last week but continued to hold the weekly trend higher. Logistics on imports is once again a problem with a lot of boats stuck off shore in China. There are concerns that another freeze in Brazil could develop but there is nothing in the forecast for now. The market is short Oranges and short juice production but is also worried about domestic demand destruction as pills are becoming cheaper again. The greening disease has taken its toll on the US crop and the previous Brazil crop was down significantly due to drought. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good, but it is drier now and some trees are developing stress. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 197.00 and 216.00 July. Support is at 173.00, 166.00, and 163.00 July, with resistance at 183.00, 186.00, and 189.00 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 31, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 15,073 :
: Positions :
: 871 11,103 3,076 25 40 4,780 61 562 860 184 2,316 :
: Changes from: May 24, 2022 :
: -171 306 49 -14 27 300 0 14 -11 30 233 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 5.8 73.7 20.4 0.2 0.3 31.7 0.4 3.7 5.7 1.2 15.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 65 :
: 13 15 5 . . 26 . 6 7 7 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York was lower and London was closed on a stronger Brazilian Real and reports of less farm selling from Brazil. It was a consolidation day yesterday as there was little in the way of news to support prices. Temperatures right now are near to above normal in Brazil and there are no forecasts for frosts or freezes in the short term. The Ukraine war is supporting ideas of less demand from Europe generally and Ukraine and Russia. Demand from China is thought to be less due to the war against Covid. Deliveries from Vietnam and Brazil Robusta are noted to be decreasing as the harvest in Vietnam is now complete and the Brazilian Real is stronger.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.023 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 207.28 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 240.00 and 243.00 July. Support is at 229.00, 225.00, and 223.00 July, and resistance is at 242.00, 245.00 and 250.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2160, 2210, and 2360 July. Support is at 2090, 2050, and 2030 July, and resistance is at 2130, 2140, and 2150 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 31, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 263,898
: Positions :
: 29,926 6,473 75,084 90,997 160,555 57,985 14,526 253,992 256,637: 9,905 7,260
: Changes from: May 24, 2022 (Change in open interest: 3,761) :
: 3,352 -2,331 3,246 -5,461 3,541 1,382 -821 2,519 3,635: 1,241 126
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.3 2.5 28.5 34.5 60.8 22.0 5.5 96.2 97.2: 3.8 2.8
: Total Traders: 379 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 118 59 120 128 129 43 25 340 292:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/31/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
114,670 60,691 76,131 2,607 12,305 1,836
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 52.9% 66.4% 2.3% 10.7% 1.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
122 42 37 6 6 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
23,497 3,038 4,788 5,120 2,305 9,627
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
20.5% 2.6% 4.2% 4.5% 2.0% 8.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
28 11 12 8 10 16
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,504 4,640
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.7% 4.0%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York was lower and London was closed in consolidation trading on Friday and New York closed lower for the week. London White Sugar has been the upside leader as India has limited exports of White Sugar to 10 million tons for the current marketing year and as Brazil is harvesting its crop of Sugarcane and turning most of it into Ethanol. Thailand is still offering and exporting. India said it could have over 6 million tons in ending stocks due to the move but it has been very hot and very dry there so the production for the next crop might be much less. However, reports from India indicated that conditions are generally good for Sugar production. The Indian weather service is predicting a normal monsoon season this year. Support for London also came from ideas of little Sugar coming from Brazil as the mills there are processing for Ethanol.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1900 and 1850 October. Support is at 1930, 1880, and 1820 October and resistance is at 1970, 2000, and 2020 October. Trends in London are up with objectives of 588.00 August. Support is at 569.00, 560.00, and 548.00 August and resistance is at 592.00, 598.00, and 604.00 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 31, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,004,674
: Positions :
: 131,664 49,175 210,373 269,441 633,546 299,694 57,212 911,171 950,305: 93,502 54,368
: Changes from: May 24, 2022 (Change in open interest: -5,215) :
: -2,330 3,928 138 2,918 -11,524 -4,069 -2,562 -3,342 -10,019: -1,872 4,805
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.1 4.9 20.9 26.8 63.1 29.8 5.7 90.7 94.6: 9.3 5.4
: Total Traders: 252 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 78 42 86 71 77 40 18 229 189:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/31/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
80,205 24,758 64,275 8,852 4,260 2,575
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 30.9% 80.1% 11.0% 5.3% 3.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
124 32 39 7 3 4
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
30,286 2,063 3,941 3,509 344 812
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
37.8% 2.6% 4.9% 4.4% 0.4% 1.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
48 5 17 9 4 9
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,472 1,935
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.8% 2.4%

COCOA
General Comments: New York as lower on Friday and London was closed but both markets closed higher for the week. Reports of big rains in Ivory Coast supported ideas of a big mid crop production but also brought ideas of moldy deliveries to ports. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa for the year. The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa. Current reports from Ivory Coast indicate that the weather is a good mix of sun and rain so a good midcrop production is expected. The weather is good in Southeast Asia. Ghana arrivals have been below year ago levels.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to bel0ow normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are much higher today at 5.422 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2450, 2430, and 2390 July, with resistance at 2540, 2570, and 2620 July. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1850, 1880, and 1920 July. Support is at 1750, 1730, and 1710 July, with resistance at 1790, 1810, and 1830 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 31, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 352,970
: Positions :
: 55,235 68,737 91,205 122,430 148,458 65,868 30,874 334,738 339,274: 18,232 13,696
: Changes from: May 24, 2022 (Change in open interest: 9,744) :
: 5,604 2,700 3,570 -2,508 892 2,292 1,007 8,958 8,169: 786 1,575
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.6 19.5 25.8 34.7 42.1 18.7 8.7 94.8 96.1: 5.2 3.9
: Total Traders: 260 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 80 79 86 53 36 32 21 218 178:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/31/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
310,619 167,907 181,078 32,224 36,492 21,602
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 54.1% 58.3% 10.4% 11.7% 7.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
149 51 45 12 10 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
28,369 18,602 18,682 10,583 961 30,081
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
9.1% 6.0% 6.0% 3.4% 0.3% 9.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
23 21 14 19 5 20
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
1,171 3,121
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.4% 1.0%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322