About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jun 3
For the week ended May 26, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 0.7 363.5 19436.7 25645.1 906.6 3367.6
hrw 1.5 57.4 7474.9 8725.1 368.4 815.2
srw 2.2 50.1 2872.3 1870.3 112.3 752.4
hrs -3.7 170.9 5521.9 7762.0 303.0 1077.9
white 0.6 85.1 3371.3 6605.4 122.9 657.8
durum 0.0 0.0 196.3 682.4 0.0 64.4
corn 185.8 48.7 59241.7 69108.3 12941.4 5686.8
soybeans 111.6 284.0 59596.5 61525.2 9930.0 12102.1
soymeal 188.9 0.1 10710.0 10304.6 2701.6 411.3
soyoil 4.2 0.0 675.6 667.8 104.6 0.0
upland cotton 354.2 109.1 15253.0 15727.4 5150.1 3259.8
pima cotton 0.4 1.2 476.5 804.8 84.5 52.8
sorghum 32.7 0.0 6794.1 7235.3 1122.1 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 20.5 29.4 5.2 8.6
rice 20.5 0.0 2707.8 3164.5 396.2 6.0

DJ Food Prices Eased in May Helped by Vegetable Oil Price Decline
By Yusuf Khan
Food prices fell for the second consecutive month in May, helped by an ease in vegetable oil prices, according to the UN Food and Agricultural Organization.
The FAO’s Food Price Index, a measure of the most commonly-traded food commodities, fell 0.9 points in May to 157.4 points, the second consecutive decline since March’s all-time high of 159.7. Food prices remained at a high level, with the index still 29.2 points, or 22.8%, above May last year.
The fall in prices was led by a decrease in vegetable oil prices where a crisis had emerged following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with a sharp decline in sunflower oil production and exports from the region, the UN FAO said.
Since that point however, palm, soy and rapeseed oil prices have all eased with Indonesia removing its short-lived ban on palm oil exports. A further price drop “was contained by lingering uncertainties over the country’s [Indonesia] export prospects,” it said.
In terms of cereals, the index averaged 173.4 points in May, up 3.7 points from April and as much as 39.7 points above its May 2021 value, led by rising wheat prices. Wheat prices rose for a fourth consecutive month, up 5.6% in May and just 11% below the record high reached in March 2008, the UN body said. This was led by India’s wheat export ban and uncertainty around Ukrainian exports.
Dairy prices slipped in May by 3.5% from April, marking the first decline after eight consecutive monthly increases with China lockdowns hitting demand. Meat prices were up 0.5% to 122 points, setting a new all-time high, led by rising poultry prices. Again, Ukrainian supply chain disruption was a key factor as well as a rise in avian influenza.
Sugar prices dipped 1.1%, “triggered by limited global import demand and good global availability prospects, mostly stemming from a bumper crop in India,” it said.

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher yesterday as the fund selling eased but the focus remained on Russia and its offer to allow ships into Ukrainian ports to take grain. USDA noted mostly stable conditions for the Winter Wheat crops yesterday but noted Spring Wheat planting remained far behind average. The government in Russia said again that it was willing to discuss terms with the west for shipments of Ukraine grain to get safe passage, but ideas are that the terms Russia will ask for will be so onerous that they will be rejected. The UN said negotiations are making progress but there was still a long way to go before any deal could be concluded. Minneapolis Spring Wheat futures were lower in sympathy with the Winter Wheat markets but the weather remained bad for planting in the northern Great Plains and the Canadian Prairies. It is dry today but there have been several days of rain in both states this week. The US western Great Plains got some rainfall and the rains fell in some of the areas most in need of some precipitation. It is turning warmer and drier farther north to give hope to Spring Wheat farmers that they can plant crops. Europe is too hot and dry and India and Pakistan are both getting major heat waves and dry conditions. India has exempted Egypt from the ban and will honor previous commitments. It had been expected to offer up to 12 million tons to the world market. Ukraine exports were reduced due to the war and the trade is hoping for improved production in the EU to make up the difference.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Northern areas should see isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers in eastern areas. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 1026 July. Support is at 1023, 1018, and 981 July, with resistance at 1090, 1115, and 1134 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 1094 July. Support is at 1113, 1087, and 10568 July, with resistance at 1192, 1213, and 1257 July. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 1176 July. Support is at 1180, 1155, and 1130 July, and resistance is at 1239, 1256, and 1288 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower again yesterday on follow through selling from the good progress and condition of the crops shown by USDA in the Tuesday reports. There are still ideas of less production of US Rice this year but the good conditions are starting to limit loss ideas. Trends are trying to turn up on the daily charts but are still mixed overall. The planting pace is catching up to normal, but acreage estimates are still down for the next crop. Some traders note that it will be difficult to move Rice at current price levels and they are worried about domestic and export demand moving forward. The export sales reports in recent weeks have shown less demand. It was hot and dry in India and it is possible that Rice production will be affected. Isolated showers and cooler temperatures are now reported. Rice is a highly political grain for India and the government goes out of its way to subsidize the crop production and support Rice farmers.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1684, 1672, and 1661 July and resistance is at 1764, 1782, and 1815 July.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed higher as the fund selling eased. The government iun Russia said again that it was willing to discuss terms with the west for shipments of Ukraine grain to get safe passage, but ideas are that the terms Russia will ask for will be so onerous that they will be rejected. The UN said it is negotiating with Russia and progress is being made but that any deal was still far away. USDA noted that planting progress for US crops is almost average. The areas left to be planted are primarily in the Dakotas and might not get planted as the insurance planting dates have passed. The risk to plant now would be much higher without the insurance and the high costs of inputs. There are also pockets of area left to be planted in the big production states. The weather was variable last week with periods of rain and very cool temperatures and then warm and dry conditions and more of the same is expected this week. Many think the top end of the yield has been taken off the Corn crop due to the delayed planting. It already thinks there is reduced planted area because of the March planning intentions reports from USDA and the bad planting weather. The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter. China has a Covid outbreak and has closed some cities and some ports in response.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 101,600 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 711 July. Support is at 715, 696, and 683 July, and resistance is at 741, 755, and 7861 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 601, 573, and 571 July. Support is at 644, 625, and 607 July, and resistance is at 663, 680, and 685 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and ther products were higher. Soybean Oil found support in part from talk that President Biden plans to retroactively increase bio fuels use to help bring down the prices of Crude Oil and petroleum products. There is less Chinese demand for Soy products due to the lockdowns there although China did buy US Soybeans yesterday. Soybean Oil is not going to restaurants as quickly as in the past due to Covid lockdowns and Meal demand is down as well as less meat is being produced for the same reason. There are still fears of a cooling economy and forecasts for much improved planting weather this week as the weather will be warm and dry, then rainy and cooler. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America. They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs. Most of the current buying is for next year. Ideas are that the Chinese economy could slow down due to the Covid lockdowns there and cause the country to purchase less Soybeans in the world market and these ideas got some confirmation last week as the economic numbers from China indicate the potential for a shrinking economy.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1752 and 1816 July. Support is at 1706, 1674, and 1665 July, and resistance is at 1749,46768, and 1780 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 408.00 and 390.00 July. Support is at 408.00, 406.00, and 395.00 July, and resistance is at 426.00 429.00, and 436.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 8500, and 8680 July. Support is at 7660, 7360, and 7170 July, with resistance at 8200, 8250, and 8200 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher again yesterday. Futures are higher overall on ideas of less Malaysian production due to worker shortages from Covid and on the potential for strong exports for the month from Malaysia. The Indonesian government is now imposing a domestic reserve on exporters. Some analysts think Palm Oil is topping out anyway due to reduced demand ideas. Hopes for better demand from India keep the market supported, but Chinese demand could be less. A new Covid outbreak is reported in China and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports. The economy could slow down and affect demand. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was lower despite the strength in Chicago. The crops are going in the ground and the growing conditions are much improved. It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting but better planting weather is coming now as it is now much warmer. StatsCan said that Canadian farmers intend to reduce planted area for Canola this year and use the area to plant Wheat instead. There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well. Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight. Demand remains a problem as Canola is high priced but the diplomatic spat with China over the arrested Huawei executive seems to be in the past now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 1126.00, 1122.00, and 1108.00 July, with resistance at 1177.00, 1195.00, and 1200.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 6030, 5830, and 5700 September, with resistance at 6450, 6640, and 6760 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry today. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May
103 July
195 July
120 July
146 July

June
103 July
195 July
120 July
146 July

July
97 July
175 July
80 July
158 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 2
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures for June 2, 2022.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 1,199.80 46.50 Jul 22 up 8.50
Basis: Thunder Bay 1,186.90 45.00 Jul 22 dn 11.40
Basis: Vancouver 1,206.90 65.00 Jul 22 dn 11.40
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 3
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1687.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1577.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1467.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1690.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1580.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1470.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 1610.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 1320.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 6800.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 404.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.387)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322