About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower last week on poor weekly export sales as hot and dry conditions in the western Great Plains should return after a little rain in the last couple of days. Futures seem to have hit a wall against moves to higher prices and are now correcting lower. It is also hot and dry in India and crops grown there are thought to be under stress as well. There were ideas that production potential is slipping further due to the hot and dry weather in West Texas and the rest of the western Great Plains. Chinese demand could become less due to the Covid lockdowns there be trimming imports due to Covid and has closed a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation. China port closures and domestic difficulties caused by renewed Covid lockdowns are causing ideas of less demand.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures and Southeast will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 135.61 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,088 bales, from 1,088 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 134.50 and 130.00 July. Support is at 136.20, 134.60, and 133.30 July, with resistance of 142.80, 145.00 and 147.10 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 24, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 282,284
: Positions :
: 58,966 12,187 69,990 56,020 180,900 78,378 11,170 263,355 274,247: 18,930 8,037
: Changes from: May 17, 2022 (Change in open interest: -2,968) :
: -3,656 1,237 281 2,440 -3,999 -624 222 -1,560 -2,260: -1,408 -708
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.9 4.3 24.8 19.8 64.1 27.8 4.0 93.3 97.2: 6.7 2.8
: Total Traders: 287 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 130 40 84 54 62 48 20 251 189:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher last week and made new highs for the move. July was the leader to the upside as the market apparently needs juice. Logistics on imports is once again a problem with a lot of boats stuck off shore in China. Oranges production could have been affected but it is not likely that there was any major damage from freezing temperatures in Brazil. There are concerns that another freeze could develop but there is nothing in the forecast for now. The market is short Oranges and short juice production but is also worried about domestic demand destruction as pills are becoming cheaper again. The greening disease has taken its toll on the US crop and the previous Brazil crop was down significantly due to drought. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good, but it is drier now and some trees are developing stress. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 197.00 and 216.00 July. Support is at 178.00, 173.00, and 166.00 July, with resistance at 187.00, 189.00, and 195.00 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 24, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 14,445 :
: Positions :
: 1,041 10,797 3,027 39 13 4,480 61 548 871 154 2,084 :
: Changes from: May 17, 2022 :
: -581 -391 23 -67 0 150 0 71 -26 4 26 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.2 74.7 21.0 0.3 0.1 31.0 0.4 3.8 6.0 1.1 14.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 62 :
: 13 15 5 . . 24 . 6 8 5 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed higher and London closed a little lower in consolidation trading, with New York firm on concerns for more freezing temperatures for Brazil. Both markets closed higher for the week and London looks like a bottom is forming on the weekly charts. There is nothing in the forecast yet for any new freeze in Brazil but the Winter season is here. The Ukraine war is supporting ideas of less demand from Europe generally and Ukraine and Russia. Demand from China is thought to be less due to the war against Covid. Deliveries from Vietnam and Brazil Robusta are noted to be decreasing as the harvest is now complete, but selling was active in previous months.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.081 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 196.65 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 232.00, 240.00, and 243.00 July. Support is at 223.00, 218.00, and 215.00 July, and resistance is at 230.00, 233.00 and 237.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2360 July. Support is at 2080, 2050, and 2030 July, and resistance is at 2120, 2130, and 2140 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 24, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 260,137
: Positions :
: 26,574 8,804 71,838 96,457 157,014 56,604 15,347 251,473 253,003: 8,664 7,134
: Changes from: May 17, 2022 (Change in open interest: 1,660) :
: -3,373 162 3,673 1,078 -2,689 652 -105 2,030 1,040: -369 620
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.2 3.4 27.6 37.1 60.4 21.8 5.9 96.7 97.3: 3.3 2.7
: Total Traders: 372 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 108 67 120 125 123 43 25 329 292:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/24/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
113,784 62,227 73,918 3,154 11,290 2,072
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 54.7% 65.0% 2.8% 9.9% 1.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
129 41 38 10 5 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
21,287 5,147 4,848 4,390 2,251 9,867
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
18.7% 4.5% 4.3% 3.9% 2.0% 8.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
27 14 12 10 8 17
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,939 4,391
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.2% 3.9%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York closed lower last week but London closed higher on reports that the freeze event in Brazil cause only minimal damage and as India has limited exports of White Sugar to 10 million tons for the current marketing year. India said it could have over 6 million tons in ending stocks due to the move but it has been very hot and very dry there so the production for the next crop might be much less. Support for London also came from ideas of little Sugar coming from Brazil as the mills there are processing for Ethanol. Ideas are still that prices for Sugar are relatively cheap in the world market. But the bulls have not been able to sustain a rally attempt.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with obje3ctives of 1870, 1800, and 1780 July. Support is at 1920, 1890, and 1870 July and resistance is at 1970, 2000, and 2020 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 574.00 and 588.00 August. Support is at 548.00, 546.00, and 536.00 August and resistance is at 566.00, 572.00, and 578.00 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 24, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,009,888
: Positions :
: 133,993 45,246 210,235 266,522 645,070 303,763 59,774 914,513 960,325: 95,375 49,564
: Changes from: May 17, 2022 (Change in open interest: 18,169) :
: 3,814 -3,899 13,841 1,315 8,213 2,831 1,305 21,801 19,460: -3,633 -1,292
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.3 4.5 20.8 26.4 63.9 30.1 5.9 90.6 95.1: 9.4 4.9
: Total Traders: 253 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 78 43 86 69 77 42 18 229 189:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/24/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
75,914 24,531 61,534 8,783 3,482 2,433
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 32.3% 81.1% 11.6% 4.6% 3.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
109 31 38 7 2 4
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
26,534 2,172 2,771 3,546 260 608
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
35.0% 2.9% 3.7% 4.7% 0.3% 0.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
40 3 14 7 4 6
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,708 2,654
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
8.8% 3.5%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London moved lower again yesterday but then closed higher in consolidation trading and chart patterns are sideways for the weekly charts but still down on the daily charts. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa for the year. The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa. Current reports from Ivory Coast indicate that the weather is a good mix of sun and rain so a good midcrop production is expected. The weather is good in Southeast Asia. Ghana arrivals have been below year ago levels. Cocoa arrivals in Ivory Coast are now 1.874 million tons, now down 4.5% from last year.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to bel0ow normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.255 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2360 July. Support is at 2390, 2370, and 2340 July, with resistance at 2470, 2490, and 2530 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1680 and 1650 July. Support is at 1700, 1680, and 1650 July, with resistance at 1740, 1770, and 1790 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 24, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 343,225
: Positions :
: 49,630 66,037 87,634 124,938 147,567 63,577 29,866 325,780 331,104: 17,446 12,121
: Changes from: May 17, 2022 (Change in open interest: 8,464) :
: -551 11,199 3,124 5,401 -5,368 428 -736 8,401 8,219: 63 245
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.5 19.2 25.5 36.4 43.0 18.5 8.7 94.9 96.5: 5.1 3.5
: Total Traders: 258 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 80 77 83 54 39 32 20 216 177:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/24/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
306,686 167,186 180,981 31,733 36,664 19,473
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 54.5% 59.0% 10.3% 12.0% 6.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
149 50 44 13 9 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
28,952 17,172 18,910 9,735 836 29,846
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
9.4% 5.6% 6.2% 3.2% 0.3% 9.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
21 25 18 17 5 19
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
851 2,804
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.3% 0.9%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322