About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday on poor weekly export sales as hot and dry conditions in the western Great Plains should return after a little rain in the last couple of days. It is also hot and dry in India and crops grown there are thought to be under stress as well. There were ideas that production potential is slipping further due to the hot and dry weather in West Texas and the rest of the western Great Plains. Chinese demand could become less due to the Covid lockdowns there be trimming imports due to Covid and has closed a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation. China port closures and domestic difficulties caused by renewed Covid lockdowns are causing ideas of less demand.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures and Southeast will get scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 135.61 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,088 bales, from 1,088 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 134.60, 132.30, and 130.20 July, with resistance of 147.10, 148.80 and 151.90 July.

DJ On-Call Cotton – May 26
As of May 20. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Jul 22 42,172 50,498 -8,326 3,854 4,681 -827
Oct 22 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 22 56,973 54,378 2,595 23,704 23,546 158
Mar 23 6,645 6,665 -20 2,916 2,840 76
May 23 5,204 4,783 421 142 142 0
Jul 23 10,095 9,611 484 17 17 0
Dec 23 4,427 4,017 410 10,709 10,586 123
Mar 24 0 0 0 0 0 0
May 24 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jul 24 0 0 0 220 220 0
Dec 24 0 0 0 249 249 0
Mar 22 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 125,516 129,952 -4,436 41,811 42,281 -470
Open Open Change
Int Int
Jul 22 77,236 84,975 -7,739
Oct 22 39 33 6
Dec 22 83,720 80,527 3,193
Mar 23 17,941 15,764 2,177
May 23 6,051 5,421 630
Jul 23 5,999 5,367 632
Dec 23 10,365 10,052 313
Mar 24 106 36 70
May 24 24 22 2
Jul 24 42 28 14
Dec 24 55 33 22
Mar 22 2 0 2
Total 201,580 202,258 -678

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher yesterday and made new highs for the move. July was the leader to the upside as the market apparently needs juice. Logistics on imports is once again a problem with a lot of boats stuck off shore in China. Oranges production could have been affected but it is not likely that there was any major damage from freezing temperatures in Brazil. There are concerns that another freeze could develop but there is nothing in the forecast for now. The market is short Oranges and short juice production but is also worried about domestic demand destruction as pills are becoming cheaper again. The greening disease has taken its toll on the US crop and the previous Brazil crop was down significantly due to drought. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good, but it is drier now and some tree are developing stress. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 197.00 and 216.00 July. Support is at 178.00, 173.00, and 166.00 July, with resistance at 187.00, 189.00, and 195.00 July.
COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher on concerns for more freezing temperatures for Brazil. There is nothing in the forecast yet but the Winter season is here. It looks like some new demand hit the market. The Ukraine war is supporting ideas of less demand from Europe generally and Ukraine and Russia. Demand from China is thought to be less due to the war against Covid. Deliveries from Vietnam and Brazil Robusta are noted to be decreasing as the harvest is now complete, but selling was active in previous months.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.081 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 196.65 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 229.00, 232.00, and 240.00 July. Support is at 223.00, 218.00, and 215.00 July, and resistance is at 229.00, 230.00 and 233.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2360 July. Support is at 2080, 2050, and 2030 July, and resistance is at 2120, 2130, and 2140 July.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York closed lower again yesterday but London closed higher again on reports that the freeze event in Brazil cause only minimal damage and as India has limited exports of White Sugar to 10 million tons for the current marketing year. India said it could have over 6 million tons n ending stocks due to the move but it has been very hot and very dry there so the production for the next crop might be much less. Support for London also came from ideas of little Sugar coming from Brazil as the mills there are processing for Ethanol. Ideas are still that prices for Sugar are relatively cheap in the world market. But the bulls have not been able to sustain a rally attempt.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with obje3ctives of 1870, 1800, and 1780 July. Support is at 1920, 1890, and 1870 July and resistance is at 1970, 2000, and 2020 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 574.00 and 588.00 August. Support is at 548.00, 546.00, and 536.00 August and resistance is at 566.00, 572.00, and 578.00 August.

DJ Sugar Market to Swing to Surplus in 2021-22
By Yusuf Khan
The sugar market is anticipated to swing to a small surplus in 2021, according to the International Sugar Organization, as increasing exports from Brazil outweigh the inflation effects of the Ukraine war.
The 2021-22 season is now expected to deliver a small surplus of 0.24 million metric tons, versus the deficit of 1.93 million tons the ISO said it was expecting in February.
In particular, sugar production is likely to rise to 174.03 million tons for the full season while consumption is expected to be 173.79 million tons. Both of these are increases on the 2020-21 season, when 168.98 tons were produced and 171.03 tons were consumed.
Rising exports from India have also improved the balance of trade for sugar, from a surplus of 0.20 million tons in February to 1.29 million tons in May’s report. The ISO said that higher export availability from Brazil is likely to ensure the market remains well-supplied for the rest of the season, despite the Russian invasion of Ukraine pushing commodity prices higher and underpinning higher labor and supply-chain costs.
“The current sugar-market situation has shifted further towards bearish, with the production/consumption balance now showing a small surplus and increasing export volumes from Brazil in coming months,” it said.
Prices have been broadly higher this year, with raw sugar futures on Thursday hitting $0.19 a pound compared with $0.17 a pound on 26 May 2021. That said, sugar has seen fairly sharp swings, reaching a high of 20 cents a pound twice this year, while also dropping to 18 cents a pound in February.
For the 2022-23 season the ISO expects this surplus to widen to 2.77 million tons, with production at 177.370 million tons and consumption at 174.60 million tons for the sugar year starting in October.
Ethanol production in 2022 is projected to reach 110.3 billion liters, up 5.1 billion liters from 2021. Higher consumption and production are expected this year in Brazil, India and the U.S.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London moved lower again yesterday but then closed higher in consolidation trading and chart patterns are sideways for the weekly charts but still down on the daily charts. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa for the year. The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa. Current reports from Ivory Coast indicate that the weather is a good mix of sun and rain so a good midcrop production is expected. The weather is good in Southeast Asia. Ghana arrivals have been below year ago levels. Cocoa arrivals in Ivory Coast are now 1.874 million tons, now down 4.5% from last year.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to bel0ow normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.255 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2360 July. Support is at 2390, 2370, and 2340 July, with resistance at 2470, 2490, and 2530 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1680 and 1650 July. Support is at 1700, 1680, and 1650 July, with resistance at 1740, 1770, and 1790 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322