About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – May 26
Winnipeg — The following are Canadian grain handling
summary statistics for the week ended May 22, 2022. Figures in thousands of
metric tons. Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 2950.6 549.9 226.7 281.0 48.2 1174.5 277.8 341.0 6224.2
Week Ago 2696.0 615.6 242.4 291.4 49.3 1223.6 288.3 339.4 6183.5
Year Ago 2339.2 847.5 298.7 525.5 75.1 1689.8 373.1 90.8 6966.0
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 90.5 8.7 13.5 12.4 1.5 107.5 17.7 20.0 300.7
Week Ago 113.9 5.8 20.9 24.1 1.9 106.8 15.6 17.4 339.7
To Date 13062.8 2076.8 1653.7 3275.8 187.3 12357.9 1710.0 614.5 37301.1
Year Ago 17854.0 5125.2 2382.8 4383.6 413.1 17658.5 3368.6 315.6 55037.3
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 230.7 30.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 35.2 10.1 67.9 391.2
Week Ago 287.2 85.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 31.1 8.6 58.9 560.5
To Date 11855.0 2522.1 166.5 1873.5 27.0 5271.0 1075.0 1592.6 29467.6
Year Ago 19005.7 6181.4 544.7 3312.4 210.7 9749.9 2411.9 1162.0 48378.5
EXPORTS
This Week 308.5 118.7 11.3 4.3 1.0 33.3 1.4 58.7 609.9
Week Ago 186.6 47.3 11.1 22.1 0.9 151.3 1.4 107.5 668.7
To Date 9346.7 2118.9 946.3 1826.7 74.0 4595.1 1052.4 1372.2 24867.4
Year Ago 16453.1 5224.5 1554.0 3531.4 289.6 9243.4 2390.6 1013.8 44272.3
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 110.5 7.0 18.1 20.4 1.4 151.3 5.6 92.4 427.3
Week Ago 84.6 3.6 18.9 27.6 1.3 123.5 5.6 53.1 356.7
To Date 3336.9 360.4 726.5 1468.7 59.0 7495.6 243.7 2241.2 17495.8
Year Ago 3289.4 439.4 639.8 910.9 49.2 8666.0 161.4 663.2 16223.9
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canaryseed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower again yesterday as the focus turned to Russia. The weekly export sales report showed poor sales once again. The government there said it was willing to discuss terms with the west for shipments of Ukraine grain to get safe passage, but ideas are that the terms Russia will ask for will be so onerous that they will be rejected. There was knee jerk selling seen when the news came out, then doubts surfaced that any deal could be struck so futures closed well off the lows of the day. The US western Great Plains got some rainfall and the rains fell in some of the areas most in need of some precipitation. It is turning warmer and drier farther north to give hope to Spring Wheat farmers that they can plant crops. Europe is too hot and dry and India and Pakistan are both getting major heat waves and dry conditions. India has exempted Egypt from the ban and will honor previous commitments. It had been expected to offer up to 12 million tons to the world market. Ukraine exports were reduced due to the war and the trade is hoping for improved production in the EU to make up the difference. USDA reduced production estimates for Hard Red Winter Wheat in the US recently due to the hot and dry conditions in the western Great Plains and reduced Spring Wheat production estimates due to delayed planting. Only Russia says it has a very big crop coming and many will not buy from there because of the sanctions..
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers in western areas. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 1046 July. Support is at 1115, 1107, and 1083 July, with resistance at 1175, 1209, and 1212 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 1123 July. Support is at 1192, 1179, and 1154 July, with resistance at 1259, 1291, and 1303 July. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 1176 July. Support is at 1239, 1235, and 1206 July, and resistance is at 1322, 1340, and 1412 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher on ideas of less production of US Rice this year. The planting pace is catching up to normal, but acreage estimates are still down for the next crop. Some traders note that it will be difficult to move Rice at current price levels and they are worried about domestic and export demand moving forward. It is hot and dry in India and it is possible that Rice production will be affected. Rice is a highly political grain for India and the government goes out of its way to subsidize the crop production and support Rice farmers.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1718, 1684, and 1672 July and resistance is at 1746, 1749, and 1782 July.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed lower again on news from Russia and on a bad weekly export sales report. The government there said it was willing to discuss terms with the west for shipments of Ukraine grain to get safe passage, but ideas are that the terms Russia will ask for will be so onerous that they will be rejected. There was knee jerk selling seen when the news came out, then doubts surfaced that any deal could be struck so futures closed well off the lows of the day and July futures actually closed slightly higher. The weather was variable last week with periods of rain and very cool temperatures and then warm and dry conditions and more of the same is expected this week. Many think the top end of the yield has been taken off the Corn crop due to the delayed planting. It already thinks there is reduced planted area because of the March planning intentions reports from USDA and the bad planting weather. The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter. China has a Covid outbreak and has closed some cities and some ports in response. Brazil and China have reached agreement on phytosanitary rules so that Brazil can now export Corn to China.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 743 and 739 July. Support is at 755, 753, and 739 July, and resistance is at 775, 788, and 8797 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 695, 729, and 736 July Support is at 658, 644, and 625 July, and resistance is at 698, 709, and 716 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were sharply higher and made new highs for the move and the products were mixed, with Meal lower but Oil higher. No one is sure why Soybeans rallied so much as they moved to new highs. New wires noted less Chinese demand for Soy products due to the lockdowns there. Soybean Oil is not going to restaurants as quickly as in the past due to Covid lockdowns and meal demand is down as well as less meat is being produced for the same reason. There are still fears of a cooling economy and forecasts for much improved planting weather this week. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America. They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs. Most of the current buying is for next year. Ideas are that the Chinese economy could slow down due to the Covid lockdowns there and cause the country to purchase less Soybeans in the world market and these ides got some confirmation yesterday.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1752 and 1806 July. Support is at 1720, 1697, and 1665 July, and resistance is at 1741, 1768, and 1780 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 418.00, 408.00, and 406.00 July, and resistance is at 433.00 436.00, and 439.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 7740, 7360, and 7170 July, with resistance at 8200, 8250, 6and 8460 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower again today on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation. Futures are higher overall on ideas of less Malaysian production due to worker shortages from Covid and on the potential for strong exports for the month from Malaysia. The government is now imposing a domestic reserve on exporters. Some analysts think Palm Oil is topping out anyway due to reduced demand ideas. Hopes for better demand from India keep the market supported. A new Covid outbreak is reported in China and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports. The economy could slow down and affect demand. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was higher. It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting but better planting weather is coming now. StatsCan said that Canadian farmers intend to reduce planted area for Canola this year and use the area to plant Wheat instead. There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well. Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 1144.00, 1126.00, and 1122.00 July, with resistance at 1191.00, 1200.00, and 1214.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 6340 and 6510 September. Support is at 6170, 6050, and 5830 September, with resistance at 6390, 6640, and 6760 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Showers. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May
103 July
195 July
120 July
146 July

June
103 July
195 July
120 July
146 July

July
97 July
175 July
80 July
158 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 26
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 1,160.60 7.00 Jul 2022 dn 32.30
Track Thunder Bay 1,214.00 35.00 Jul 2022 up 25.40
Track Vancouver 1,234.00 55.00 Jul 2022 up 25.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 27
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1737.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1567.50 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1447.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1740.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1570.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1450.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 1650.00 — Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 1395.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 6950.00 — Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 420.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.377)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 27
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 131,188 lots, or 8.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 6,332 6,388 6,320 6,357 6,358 6,350 -8 87,607 135,923
Sep-22 6,203 6,313 6,200 6,277 6,251 6,266 15 26,239 55,091
Nov-22 5,995 6,103 5,991 6,077 6,014 6,055 41 15,962 28,757
Jan-23 5,966 6,082 5,961 6,043 5,985 6,029 44 1,342 4,983
Mar-23 5,950 6,006 5,950 6,006 5,931 5,989 58 20 98
May-23 5,896 5,963 5,896 5,963 5,913 5,929 16 18 41
Corn
Turnover: 504,868 lots, or 14.80 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 2,892 2,912 2,881 2,901 2,890 2,897 7 68,936 248,367
Sep-22 2,932 2,954 2,920 2,944 2,931 2,938 7 386,619 1,230,802
Nov-22 2,924 2,947 2,908 2,940 2,916 2,926 10 15,411 94,451
Jan-23 2,938 2,955 2,922 2,947 2,933 2,937 4 26,004 111,608
Mar-23 2,936 2,958 2,925 2,948 2,934 2,941 7 6,562 44,950
May-23 2,970 2,990 2,959 2,986 2,964 2,977 13 1,336 4,749
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,119,295 lots, or 46.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 4,193 4,291 4,187 4,276 4,166 4,253 87 57,356 145,457
Aug-22 4,214 4,311 4,208 4,300 4,178 4,272 94 44,804 191,212
Sep-22 4,114 4,216 4,106 4,200 4,080 4,172 92 811,872 1,309,855
Nov-22 4,020 4,098 4,011 4,090 3,982 4,068 86 32,652 112,843
Dec-22 3,978 4,048 3,973 4,028 3,945 4,022 77 12,787 45,710
Jan-23 3,879 3,953 3,876 3,931 3,852 3,929 77 133,790 344,987
Mar-23 3,744 3,808 3,737 3,784 3,716 3,785 69 8,521 22,586
May-23 3,626 3,692 3,624 3,665 3,602 3,669 67 17,513 34,452
Palm Oil
Turnover: 889,718 lots, or 10.83 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-22 15,110 15,766 15,100 15,642 14,906 15,456 550 828 920
Jul-22 13,802 14,216 13,716 13,842 13,464 13,996 532 49,503 45,401
Aug-22 12,618 13,082 12,564 12,770 12,404 12,856 452 17,620 45,150
Sep-22 11,898 12,288 11,846 12,096 11,766 12,096 330 764,240 375,793
Oct-22 11,548 11,878 11,486 11,758 11,466 11,728 262 15,054 30,555
Nov-22 11,358 11,656 11,304 11,544 11,276 11,514 238 8,651 13,399
Dec-22 11,136 11,418 11,124 11,340 11,050 11,308 258 44 133
Jan-23 11,040 11,266 10,960 11,166 10,918 11,146 228 31,450 57,760
Feb-23 10,902 11,114 10,902 11,114 10,880 11,074 194 7 55
Mar-23 10,914 11,064 10,914 11,040 10,766 10,992 226 26 150
Apr-23 10,818 10,936 10,782 10,904 10,706 10,874 168 36 108
May-23 10,616 10,852 10,616 10,756 10,602 10,754 152 2,259 2,767
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 678,370 lots, or 79.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 11,974 12,166 11,878 12,082 11,858 12,030 172 27,169 57,280
Aug-22 11,798 11,998 11,710 11,920 11,692 11,874 182 18,568 68,162
Sep-22 11,570 11,814 11,530 11,740 11,518 11,684 166 551,292 456,813
Nov-22 11,338 11,576 11,314 11,510 11,304 11,462 158 20,858 36,605
Dec-22 11,226 11,456 11,194 11,392 11,194 11,336 142 8,546 11,862
Jan-23 11,156 11,346 11,092 11,272 11,088 11,242 154 37,539 69,973
Mar-23 10,950 11,168 10,934 11,100 10,932 11,082 150 11,114 10,838
May-23 10,656 10,848 10,656 10,746 10,656 10,716 60 3,284 4,033
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322