Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was higher yesterday as hot and dry conditions in the western Great Plains should return after a little rain in the last couple of days. It is also hot and dry in India and crops grown there are thought to be under stress as well. There were ideas that production potential is slipping further due to the hot and dry weather in West Texas and the rest of the western Great Plains. There were also reports of an uptick in demand for Cotton yesterday. Chinese demand could become less due to the Covid lockdowns there be trimming imports due to Covid and has closed a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation. China has been buying even with the port closures and domestic difficulties caused by renewed Covid lockdowns.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures and Southeast will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 140.16 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,088 bales, from 1,088 bales yesterday. USDA said that weekly net Upland Cotton export sales were 37,000 bales this year and 95,400 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 4,100 bales this year and 1,30 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 144.80, 142.80, and 140.70 July, with resistance of 148.80, 151.90 and 155.90 July.
General Comments: FCOJ was lower yesterday in consolidation trading and trends are still mixed on the daily charts. July was the leader to the upside as the market apparently needs a little juice. A freeze was possible in center south parts of Brazil and Oranges production could have been affected but it is not likely that there was any major damage. The market is short Oranges and short juice production but is also worried about domestic demand destruction as pills are becoming cheaper again. The greening disease has taken its toll on the US crop and the previous Brazil crop was down significantly due to drought. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good, but it is drier now and some tree are developing stress. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get isolated showers and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 312 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 173.00, 166.00, and 163.00 July, with resistance at 179.00, 182.00, and 187.00 July.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher with London the leader to the upside and held to a sideways range on the charts. It looks like some new demand hit the market. Some selling was seen on ideas that a Brazil freeze will cause a little harm to trees or fruit. The Ukraine war is supporting ideas of less demand from Europe generally and Ukraine and Russia. Demand from China is thought to be less due to the war against Covid. Deliveries from Vietnam and Brazil Robusta are noted to be decreasing as the harvest is now complete, but selling was active in previous months.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.090 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 192.06 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with below normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 209.00, 205.00, and 201.00 July, and resistance is at 219.00, 221.00 and 224.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2050, 2030, and 2010 July, and resistance is at 2100, 210, and 2130 July .
General Comments: New York closed a little lower again yesterday but London closed higher again on reports that the freeze event in Brazil cause only minimal damage and as India has limited exports of White Sugar to 10 million tons for the current marketing year. India said it could have over 6 million tons n ending stocks due to the move but it has been very hot and very dry there so the production for the next crop might be much less. Support for London also came from ideas of little Sugar coming from Brazil as the mills there are processing for Ethanol. Ideas are still that prices for Sugar are relatively cheap in the world market. But the bulls have not been able to sustain a rally attempt.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal. India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1940, 1920, and 1890 July and resistance is at 2000, 2020, and 2040 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 560.00, 548.00, and 546.00 August and resistance is at 566.00, 572.00, and 578.00 August.
General Comments: New York and London moved lower yesterday in consolidation trading and chart patterns are sideways for the weekly charts but still down on the daily charts. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa for the year. The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa. Current reports from Ivory Coast indicate that the weather is a good mix of sun and rain so a good midcrop production is expected. The weather is good in Southeast Asia. Ghana arrivals have been below year ago levels. Cocoa arrivals in Ivory Coast are now 1.874 million tons, now down 4.5% from last year.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to bel0ow normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.228 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2360 July. Support is at 2370, 2340, and 2310 July, with resistance at 2430, 2470, and 2490 July. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1680 and 1650 July. Support is at 1680, 1650, and 1620 July, with resistance at 1720, 1740, and 1770 July.