About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday as it rained in western Texas to help the crops. The weekly export sales report was not strong on Thursday morning. New crop months were lower as hot and dry conditions in the western Great Plains continue for now. It is also hot and dry in India and crops grown there are thought to be under stress as well. There were ideas that production potential is slipping further due to the hot and dry weather in West Texas and the rest of the western Great Plains, but these ideas changed overnight with some rains. USDA estimated production for the coming year at 16.50 million bales and this was below trade expectations. USDA said that planted area was less than had been previously forecast due to the hot and dry weather in the western Great Plains. Some of this area might now get planted. Chinese demand could become less due to the Covid lockdowns there be trimming imports due to Covid and has closed a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation. China has been buying even with the port closures and domestic difficulties caused by renewed Covid lockdowns.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures and Southeast will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 138.54 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,088 bales, from 1,088 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 140.70, 134.76, and 132.30 July, with resistance of 145.00, 148.80 and 151.90 July.

General Comments: FCOJ was higher again yesterday and trends are still mixed on the daily charts. July was the leader to the upside as the market apparently needs a little juice. A freeze was possible in center south parts of Brazil and Oranges production could have been affected but it is not likely that there was any major damage. The market is short Oranges and short juice production but is also worried about domestic demand destruction as pills are becoming cheaper again. The greening disease has taken its toll on the US crop and the previous Brazil crop was down significantly due to drought. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good, but it is drier now and some tree are developing stress. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get isolated showers and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 312 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 173.00, 166.00, and 163.00 July, with resistance at 179.00, 182.00, and 187.00 July.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack for Week Ended May 7
Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
4/23/2022 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
5/7/2022 5/8/2021 % Change
Carry Over
Bulk 198.71 285.06 -30.3%
Retail/Institutional 4.40 5.21 -15.5%
Total 203.11 290.27 -30.0%
Bulk 1.51 1.66 -8.9%
Retail/Institutional 1.68 1.30 29.3%
Total Pack 3.20 2.96 7.9%
Reprocessed -2.82 -2.34 20.8%
Pack from Fruit 0.37 0.63 -40.5%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.09 0.10 -1.1%
Imports – Foreign 10.18 4.44 129.4%
Domestic Receipts 0.44 0.53 -16.1%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.24 0.01 3909.6%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.46 0.00 NA
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.02 0.01 109.3%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 208.64 289.46 -27.9%
Retail/Institutional 6.09 6.52 -6.6%
Total 214.73 295.97 -27.4%
Domestic 4.93 4.09 20.4%
Exports 0.41 0.70 -40.9%
Total (Bulk) 5.34 4.79 11.5%
Domestic 0.75 1.21 -38.3%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 0.75 1.21 -38.3%
Total Movement 6.09 6.00 1.4%
Bulk 203.30 284.67 -28.6%
Retail/Institutional 5.34 5.31 0.7%
Ending Inventory 208.65 289.97 -28.0%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
7-May-22 8-May-21 % Change
Carry Over
Bulk 226.65 254.09 -10.8%
Retail/Institutional 6.08 5.56 9.4%
Total 232.73 259.65 -10.4%
Bulk 61.09 66.96 -8.8%
Retail/Institutional 37.13 31.95 16.2%
Total Pack 98.22 98.91 -0.7%
Reprocessed -77.93 -69.67 11.9%
Pack from Fruit 20.30 29.24 -30.6%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -1.87 -0.73 154.4%
Imports – Foreign 132.13 153.73 -14.1%
Domestic Receipts 4.30 8.03 -46.4%
Receipts of Florida Produ
from Non-Reporting Entit 6.13 1.18 420.0%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 2.55 6.58 -61.3%
Reprocessed FCTJ 2.74 1.32 107.0%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 355.79 421.49 -15.6%
Retail/Institutional 43.22 37.51 15.2%
Total 399.00 459.00 -13.1%
Bulk 139.47 124.24 12.3%
Domestic 13.01 12.58 3.4%
Exports 152.48 136.82 11.4%
Total (Bulk)
Domestic 37.87 32.20 17.6%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 37.87 32.20 17.6%
Total Movement 190.36 169.02 12.6%
Bulk 203.30 284.67 -28.6%
Retail/Institutional 5.34 5.31 0.7%
Ending Inventory 208.65 289.97 -28.0%

General Comments: New York and London closed lower and held to a sideways range on the charts. Price action has been weak overall. Some selling was seen on ideas that a Brazil freeze will cause a little harm to trees or fruit. The Ukraine war is supporting ideas of less demand from Europe generally and Ukraine and Russia. Demand from China is thought to be less due to the war against Covid. Deliveries from Vietnam and Brazil Robusta are noted to be decreasing as the harvest is now complete, but selling was active in previous months.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.099 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 189.18 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with below normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 209.00, 205.00, and 201.00 July, and resistance is at 216.00, 219.00 and 221.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2030, 2010, and 1990 July, and resistance is at 2060, 2100, and 2120 July.

General Comments: New York closed a little lower again yesterday but London closed higher on reports that the freeze event in Brazil cause only minimal damage. Support for London came from ideas of little Sugar coming from Brazil as the mills there are processing for Ethanol. Ideas are still that prices for Sugar are relatively cheap in the world market. But the bulls have not been able to sustain a rally attempt. Increased offers from India and Thailand are mentioned. Pakistan is also increasing its offers due to good crops there. All are primarily exporters of White Sugar while Brazil exports more Raw Sugar. Thailand expects to produce about 10 million tons of sugar this year, up 33% from last year. India said it could export more than 9.0 million tons of Sugar. Brazil mills are crushing for Ethanol at this time and not Sugar
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal. India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1940, 1920, and 1890 July and resistance is at 2000, 2020, and 2040 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 548.00, 542.00, and 536.00 August and resistance is at 562.00, 566.00, and 572.00 August.

General Comments: New York closed lower and London moved higher yesterday in consolidation trading and chart patterns are sideways for the weekly charts but still down on the daily charts. The moves in the markets were currency related. The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa. Current reports from Ivory Coast indicate that the weather is a good mix of sun and rain so a good midcrop production is expected. The weather is good in Southeast Asia. Ghana arrivals have been below year ago levels. Cocoa arrivals in Ivory Coast are now 1.874 million tons, now down 4.5% from last year.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to bel0ow normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.185 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2410, 2370, and 2340 July, with resistance at 2470, 2490, and 2530 July. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1710, 1680, and 1650 July. Support is at 1710, 1680, and 1650 July, with resistance at 1740, 1770, and 1790 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322