About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday as the focus once again was on bad world conditions and US conditions for the world demand. The US western Great Plains got some rainfall and the rains fell in some of the areas most in need of some precipitation. It is turning warmer and drier farther north to give hope to Spring Wheat farmers that they can plant crops. Europe is too hot and dry and India and Pakistan are both getting major heat waves and dry conditions. India has exempted Egypt from the ban and will honor previous commitments. It had been expected to offer up to 12 million tons to the world market. Ukraine exports were reduced due to the war and the trade is hoping for improved production in the EU to make up the difference. USDA reduced production estimates for Hard Red Winter Wheat in the US recently due to the hot and dry conditions in the western Great Plains and reduced Spring Wheat production estimates due to delayed planting. Only Russia says it has a very big crop coming and many will not buy from there because of the sanctions..
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers in western areas. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 1129 and 1046 July. Support is at 1107, 1083, and 1068 July, with resistance at 12175, 1209, and 1212 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 1203 and 1123 July. Support is at 1200, 1179, and 1154 July, with resistance at 1259, 1291, and 1303 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 1176 July. Support is at 1253, 1249, and 1235 July, and resistance is at 1280, 14322, and 1340 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower but closed in the middle of the daily range. The planting pace is catching up to normal, but acreage estimates are still down for the next crop. Some traders note that it will be difficult to move Rice at current price levels and they are worried about domestic and export demand moving forward. It is hot and dry in India and it is possible that Rice production will be affected. Rice is a highly political grain for India and the government goes out of its way to subsidize the crop production and support Rice farmers.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1706, 1692, and 1661 July and resistance is at 1746, 1749, and 1782 July.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – May 25
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 15.27 9.67 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 15.07 10.28 0.00
Brokens 9.69 —- —-

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed lower on confirmation on Monday night that farmers are making rapid progress in getting Corn planted. The weather was variable last week with periods of rain and very cool temperatures and then warm and dry conditions and more of the same is expected this week. Many think the top end of the yield has been taken off the Corn crop due to the delayed planting. It already thinks there is reduced planted area because of the March planning intentions reports from USDA and the bad planting weather. The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter. China has a Covid outbreak and has closed some cities and some ports in response. Brazil and China have reached agreement on phytosanitary rules so that Brazil can now export Corn to China.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 757, 743, and 739 July. Support is at 753, 739, and 729 July, and resistance is at 788, 797, and 810 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 695, 729, and 736 July Support is at 658, 644, and 625 July, and resistance is at 685, 698, and 709 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher as the US cash market needs some sales from producers. New crop Soybeans and Soybean Oil were lower for the week despite strength in Palm Oil futures. There are still fears of a cooling economy and forecasts for much improved planting weather this week. Soybean Oil remains well supported as demand is holding strong amid very tight supplies of vegetable oils here and around the world. There are still worries about Chinese demand because of Covid lockdowns there. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America. They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs. Most of the current buying is for next year. Ideas are that the Chinese economy could slow down due to the Covid lockdowns there and cause the country to purchase less Soybeans in the world market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1674, 1645, and 1640 July, and resistance is at 1720, 1734, and 1741 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 418.00, 408.00, and 406.00 July, and resistance is at 433.00 436.00, and 439.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 7860, 7700, and 7360 July, with resistance at 8200, 8250, and 8460 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today on ideas of less Malaysian production due to worker shortages from Covid and on the potential for strong exports for the month from Malaysia. The government is now imposing a domestic reserve on exporters. Some analysts think Palm Oil is topping out anyway due to reduced demand ideas. Hopes for better demand from India keep the market supported. A new Covid outbreak is reported in China and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports. The economy could slow down and affect demand. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was higher. It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting but better planting weather is coming now. StatsCan said that Canadian farmers intend to reduce planted area for Canola this year and use the area to plant Wheat instead. There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well. Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 1164.00, 1154.00, and 1129.00 July, with resistance at 1200.00, 1214.00, and 1219.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 6680 and 7080 August. Support is at 6280, 6170, and 6000 August, with resistance at 6530, 6870, and 7000 August.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May
105 July
205 July
120 July
138 July

June
105 July
205 July
120 July
138 July

July
103 July
195 July
80 July
135 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 24
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 1,178.30 7.00 Jul 2022 up 21.30
Track Thunder Bay 1,220.90 35.00 Jul 2022 up 14.60
Track Vancouver 1,240.90 55.00 Jul 2022 up 14.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 25
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1717.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1552.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1447.50 -30.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1720.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1555.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1450.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 1630.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 1390.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 7050.00 — Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 425.00 -07.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.39)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 25
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 110,180 lots, or 6.96 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 6,378 6,403 6,347 6,357 6,356 6,373 17 79,290 148,533
Sep-22 6,272 6,289 6,227 6,247 6,240 6,260 20 18,842 50,438
Nov-22 6,006 6,044 5,980 6,003 5,983 6,013 30 11,377 27,206
Jan-23 5,978 6,012 5,955 5,974 5,953 5,988 35 647 5,158
Mar-23 5,891 5,950 5,847 5,928 5,887 5,904 17 16 130
May-23 5,899 5,943 5,899 5,911 5,874 5,916 42 8 32
Corn
Turnover: 871,632 lots, or 25.60 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 2,912 2,921 2,883 2,900 2,922 2,901 -21 127,444 270,110
Sep-22 2,954 2,966 2,923 2,943 2,969 2,942 -27 634,173 1,231,195
Nov-22 2,942 2,947 2,900 2,933 2,950 2,928 -22 18,928 87,136
Jan-23 2,965 2,970 2,935 2,954 2,971 2,951 -20 61,916 111,272
Mar-23 2,969 2,976 2,929 2,954 2,980 2,949 -31 26,025 43,240
May-23 3,007 3,012 2,950 2,976 3,017 2,977 -40 3,146 3,884
Soymeal
Turnover: 756,961 lots, or 30.74 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 4,185 4,200 4,142 4,187 4,186 4,175 -11 39,167 173,274
Aug-22 4,208 4,214 4,157 4,204 4,208 4,188 -20 24,619 178,430
Sep-22 4,125 4,126 4,069 4,106 4,113 4,097 -16 543,951 1,301,862
Nov-22 4,029 4,032 3,976 4,003 4,023 4,002 -21 23,909 101,806
Dec-22 3,974 3,983 3,935 3,961 3,968 3,962 -6 11,676 40,294
Jan-23 3,900 3,908 3,853 3,870 3,896 3,878 -18 96,024 331,820
Mar-23 3,747 3,755 3,713 3,730 3,749 3,737 -12 5,817 20,382
May-23 3,629 3,630 3,595 3,610 3,630 3,621 -9 11,798 22,388
Palm Oil
Turnover: 683,112 lots, or 81.67 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-22 14,822 14,988 14,712 14,868 14,704 14,856 152 773 1,536
Jul-22 13,460 13,600 13,356 13,450 13,222 13,484 262 28,349 54,063
Aug-22 12,486 12,608 12,388 12,456 12,338 12,492 154 11,052 40,532
Sep-22 11,996 12,014 11,816 11,870 11,806 11,916 110 602,504 357,178
Oct-22 11,696 11,708 11,534 11,584 11,536 11,628 92 10,489 27,352
Nov-22 11,488 11,506 11,328 11,370 11,350 11,422 72 6,504 11,304
Dec-22 11,172 11,172 11,140 11,140 11,172 11,156 -16 2 118
Jan-23 11,168 11,178 10,992 11,016 11,044 11,072 28 22,539 57,852
Feb-23 10,996 10,996 10,958 10,958 10,990 10,976 -14 2 55
Mar-23 10,888 10,890 10,874 10,890 10,924 10,884 -40 4 163
Apr-23 11,044 11,044 10,822 10,822 10,834 10,902 68 4 105
May-23 10,810 10,850 10,664 10,678 10,740 10,742 2 890 1,666
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 579,254 lots, or 66.67 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 11,868 11,928 11,780 11,912 11,792 11,870 78 18,260 75,601
Aug-22 11,720 11,762 11,630 11,740 11,616 11,712 96 18,559 66,170
Sep-22 11,550 11,610 11,460 11,572 11,450 11,544 94 468,653 454,236
Nov-22 11,340 11,380 11,250 11,360 11,250 11,330 80 13,701 31,438
Dec-22 11,240 11,274 11,146 11,238 11,162 11,226 64 5,823 9,352
Jan-23 11,142 11,172 11,042 11,138 11,058 11,128 70 42,294 62,232
Mar-23 10,986 11,016 10,890 10,972 10,912 10,974 62 9,357 8,675
May-23 10,658 10,756 10,620 10,708 10,658 10,694 36 2,607 2,491
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322