Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-May 23
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 58.702 million pounds, in April, 3.4% above the previous
month, and 66.7% above April 2021, the U.S. Department Agriculture
In thousand pounds.
Apr 30 Mar 31 Apr 30 Mar 31 warehouse
2022 2022 2021 2021 stocks/Apr
pork bellies 58,702 56,779 35,204 35,398
orange juice 488,627 479,589 754,911 664,497
french fries 958,353 965,174 921,247 950,494
other potatoes 214,785 212,819 196,239 196,076
chicken rstr (whole) 12,473 13,181 14,740 13,103
ham 98,182 74,105 80,389 60,776
total pork 530,244 485,929 456,921 451,042 448,519
total beef 531,728 535,839 448,854 482,990 519,917
total red meat 1,089,224 1,048,456 937,571 967,931 994,362
total chicken 770,320 778,563 723,132 739,826
total turkey 331,839 308,087 362,510 350,589
total poultry 1,104,057 1,088,421 1,088,516 1,093,198 1,004,812
Date 22-May 15-May 2021 Avg
Cotton Planted 54 37 47 51
Corn Planted 72 49 89 79
Corn Emerged 39 14 61 51
Soybeans Planted 50 30 73 55
Soybeans Emerged 21 9 38 28
Sorghum Planted 26 22 26 30
Rice Planted 91 88 94 89
Rice Emerged 66 53 74 71
Peanuts Planted 65 47 58 64
Sugarbeets Planted 50 37 99 95
Sunflowers Planted 5 1 20 15
Oats Planted 77 67 95 90
Oats Emerged 58 45 82 74
Winter Wheat Headed 63 48 65 65
Spring Wheat Planted 49 39 93 83
Spring Wheat Emerged 29 16 63 50
Barley Planted 71 61 90 85
Barley Emerged 47 32 62 55
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Winter Wheat This Week 22 18 32 24 4
Winter Wheat Last Week 24 17 32 24 3
Winter Wheat Last Year 5 13 35 39 8
Rice This Week 0 2 28 60 10
Rice Last Week
Rice Last Year 0 3 26 58 13
Oats This Week 15 11 29 40 5
Oats Last Week
Oats Last Year 4 10 33 47 6
Pastures and Ranges This Week 24 26 28 20 2
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 25 24 29 20 2
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 18 21 33 24 4
General Comments: Cotton was higher yesterday in recovery trading and on US Dollar weakness. The Dollar moved sharply lower and helped demand ideas for US Cotton. The weekly export sales report was not strong on Thursday morning. New crop months were lower as hot and dry conditions in the western Great Plains continue for now. It is also hot and dry in India and crops grown there are thought to be under stress as well. There are ideas that production potential is slipping further due to the hot and dry weather in West Texas and the rest of the western Great Plains. USDA estimated production for the coming year at 16.50 million bales and this was below trade expectations. USDA said that planted area was less than had been previously forecast due to the hot and dry weather in the western Great Plains. Chinese demand could become less due to the Covid lockdowns there be trimming imports due to Covid and has closed a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation. China has been buying even with the port closures and domestic difficulties caused by renewed Covid lockdowns.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 137.75 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,088 bales, from 1,088 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 140.70, 134.76, and 132.30 July, with resistance of 145.00, 148.80 and 151.90 July.
General Comments: FCOJ was higher again yesterday and trends are still mixed on the daily charts. A freeze was possible in center south parts of Brazil and Oranges production could have been affected but it is not likely that there was any major damage. The market is short Oranges and short juice production but is also worried about domestic demand destruction as pills are becoming cheaper again. The greening disease has taken its toll on the US crop and the previous Brazil crop was down significantly due to drought. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good, but it is drier now and some tree stress could develop soon. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get isolated showers and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 312 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 173.00, 166.00, and 163.00 July, with resistance at 179.00, 182.00, and 187.00 July.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower and held to a sideways range on the charts. There was some early buying in response to new production estimates from Brazil. Some selling was seen on ideas that a Brazil freeze will cause a little harm to trees or fruit. CONAB estimates total Brazil production at 53.4 million bags, down from its previous estimate of 55.7 million. Arabica production was estimated at 35.7 million bags and Robusta production was estimated at 17.7 million bags. It could freeze in at least Parana and crops could be damaged as much below normal temperatures are forecast for this weekend. However, how cold and where is the question and ideas are that Coffee will escape with no damage. The Ukraine war is supporting ideas of less demand from Europe generally and Ukraine and Russia. Demand from China is thought to be less due to the war against Covid. Deliveries from Vietnam and Brazil Robusta are noted to be decreasing as the harvest is now complete, but selling was active in previous months.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.104 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 192.53 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with below normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 213.00, 209.00, and 205.00 July, and resistance is at 221.00, 224.00 and 229.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2030, 2010, and 1990 July, and resistance is at 2100, 2120, and 2130 July.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday on reports that the freeze event in Brazil cause only minimal damage. Ideas are still that prices for Sugar are relatively cheap in the world market. But the bulls have not been able to sustain a rally attempt Increased offers from India and Thailand are mentioned. Pakistan is also increasing its offers due to good crops there. All are primarily exporters of White Sugar while Brazil exports more Raw Sugar. Thailand expects to produce about 10 million tons of sugar this year, up 33% from last year. India said it could export more than 9.0 million tons of Sugar. Brazil mills are crushing for Ethanol at this time and not Sugar
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal. India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1940, 1920, and 1890 July and resistance is at 2020, 2040, and 2050 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 548.00, 542.00, and 536.00 August and resistance is at 562.00, 566.00, and 572.00 August.
General Comments: New York and London moved higher yesterday in consolidation trading and chart patterns are sideways for the weekly charts but still down on the daily charts. The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa. Current reports from Ivory Coast indicate that the weather is a good mix of sun and rain so a good midcrop production is expected. The weather is good in Southeast Asia. Ghana arrivals have been below year ago levels, but Ivory Coast arrivals are ahead of last year.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to bel0ow normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.1671 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2360 July. Support is at 2410, 2370, and 2340 July, with resistance at 2470, 2490, and 2530 July. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1710, 1680, and 1650 July. Support is at 1710, 1680, and 1650 July, with resistance at 1740, 1770, and 1790 July.