About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – May 23

COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.

INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND

WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.

NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE

GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT

                  REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING MAY 19, 2022

                            — METRIC TONS —

—————————————————————————

                                                   CURRENT     PREVIOUS

             ———– WEEK ENDING ———-  MARKET YEAR  MARKET YEAR

  GRAIN      05/19/2022  05/12/2022  05/20/2021    TO DATE     TO DATE

BARLEY              0           0           0       10,156       33,143

CORN        1,699,092   1,060,330   1,746,162   40,833,287   49,077,116

FLAXSEED            0           0           0          324          509

MIXED               0           0           0            0            0

OATS                0           0           0          600        6,514

RYE                 0           0           0            0            0

SORGHUM       198,848     199,428     163,697    5,975,689    5,969,124

SOYBEANS      575,781     802,575     222,107   49,092,750   56,462,600

SUNFLOWER           0           0         144        2,260          240

WHEAT         309,501     348,937     598,941   19,685,018   25,011,937

Total       2,783,222   2,411,270   2,731,051  115,600,084  136,561,183

————————————————————————–

CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND

FLAXSEED;  SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.

INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-May 23

    WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers

totaled 58.702 million pounds, in April, 3.4% above the previous

month, and 66.7% above April 2021, the U.S. Department Agriculture

said Monday.

    In thousand pounds.

                                                                   public

                       Apr 30     Mar 31     Apr 30      Mar 31   warehouse

                         2022       2022       2021       2021   stocks/Apr

pork bellies           58,702     56,779     35,204     35,398

orange juice          488,627    479,589    754,911    664,497

french fries          958,353    965,174    921,247    950,494

other potatoes        214,785    212,819    196,239    196,076

chicken rstr (whole)   12,473     13,181     14,740     13,103

ham                    98,182     74,105     80,389     60,776

total pork            530,244    485,929    456,921    451,042     448,519

total beef            531,728    535,839    448,854    482,990     519,917

total red meat      1,089,224  1,048,456    937,571    967,931     994,362

total chicken         770,320    778,563    723,132    739,826

total turkey          331,839    308,087    362,510    350,589

total poultry       1,104,057  1,088,421  1,088,516  1,093,198   1,004,812

===============================================================================

Crop Progress

Date

22-May

15-May

2021

Avg

Cotton Planted

54

37

47

51

Corn Planted

72

49

89

79

Corn Emerged

39

14

61

51

Soybeans Planted

50

30

73

55

Soybeans Emerged

21

9

38

28

Sorghum Planted

26

22

26

30

Rice Planted

91

88

94

89

Rice Emerged

66

53

74

71

Peanuts Planted

65

47

58

64

Sugarbeets Planted

50

37

99

95

Sunflowers Planted

5

1

20

15

Oats Planted

77

67

95

90

Oats Emerged

58

45

82

74

Winter Wheat Headed

63

48

65

65

Spring Wheat Planted

49

39

93

83

Spring Wheat Emerged

29

16

63

50

Barley Planted

71

61

90

85

Barley Emerged

47

32

62

55

Crop Condition

Very Poor

Poor

Fair

Good

Excellent

Winter Wheat This Week

22

18

32

24

4

Winter Wheat Last Week

24

17

32

24

3

Winter Wheat Last Year

5

13

35

39

8

Rice This Week

0

2

28

60

10

Rice Last Week

Rice Last Year

0

3

26

58

13

Oats This Week

15

11

29

40

5

Oats Last Week

Oats Last Year

4

10

33

47

6

Pastures and Ranges This Week

24

26

28

20

2

Pastures and Ranges Last Week

25

24

29

20

2

Pastures and Ranges Last Year

18

21

33

24

4

WHEAT

General Comments:   Wheat markets were higher yesterday in range trading as the focus once again was on bad world conditions and US conditions for the world demand.  Europe is too hot and dry and India and Pakistan are both getting major heat waves and dry conditions.  India has exempted Egypt from the ban and will honor previous commitments.  It had been expected to offer up to 12 million tons to the world market.  Ukraine exports were reduced due to the war and the trade is hoping for improved production in the EU to make up the difference.  USDA reduced production estimates for Hard Red Winter Wheat in the US recently due to the hot and dry conditions in the western Great Plains and reduced Spring Wheat production estimates due to delayed planting.  Only Russia says it has a very big crop coming and many will not buy from there because of the sanctions.. 

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers or dry conditions.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers in western areas.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 1129 and 1046 July.  Support is at 1169, 1143, and 1107 July, with resistance at 1212, 1247, and 1284 July.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 1203 and 1123 July.  Support is at 1252, 1200, and 1179 July, with resistance at 1303, 1379, and 1397 July.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 1255 and 1176 July.  Support is at 1276, 1249, and 1235 July, and resistance is at 1340, 1412, and 1424 July.

RICE:                                              

General Comments:  Rice was higher but closed in the middle of the daily trading range after trading much higher early in the day.  The planting pace is thought to be catching up to normal, but acreage estimates are still down for the next crop.  Some traders note that it will be difficult to move Rice at current price levels and they are worried about domestic and export demand moving forward.  It is hot and dry in India and it is possible that Rice production will be affected.  Rice is a highly political grain for India and the government goes out of its way to subsidize the crop production and support Rice farmers.  It usually allows for export prices to fall and often sells it Rice internationally at below costs of production.  Prices could rally significantly in the world market if India can’t export. 

Overnight News:  The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1786 and 1825 July.  Support is at 1706, 1672, and 1661 July and resistance is at 1749, 1782, and 1815 July.

CORN AND OATS:

General Comments:  Corn closed higher in range trading as ideas continue that farmers are making rapid progress in getting Corn planted.  The weather was variable last week with periods of rain and very cool temperatures and then warm and dry conditions and more of the same is expected this week.  Many think the top end of the yield has been taken off the Corn crop due to the delayed planting.  It already thinks there is reduced planted area because of the March planning intentions reports from USDA and the bad planting weather.  The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter.  China has a Covid outbreak and has closed some cities and some ports in response.

Overnight News: 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 773, 769, and 753 July, and resistance is at 797, 810, and 814 July.  Trends in Oats are mixed  Support is at 625, 607, and 597 July, and resistance is at 644, 659, and 672 July.

SOYBEANS

General Comments:  Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher as the US cash market needs some sales from producers.  Soybean Oil was lower for the week despite news that Indonesia will allow exports of Palm Oil again starting Monday but now with a reserve requirement designed to keep the domestic market well supplied.  There are still fears of a cooling economy and forecasts for much improved planting weather this week.  Soybean Oil remains well supported as demand is holding strong amid very tight supplies of vegetable oils here and around the world.  There are still worries about Chinese demand because of Covid lockdowns there.  China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America.  They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs.  Most of the current buying is for next year.  Ideas are that the Chinese economy could slow down due to the Covid lockdowns there and cause the country to purchase less Soybeans in the world market. 

Overnight News:  Egypt bought 130,000 tons of US Soybeans.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are up with no objectives.  Support is at 1645, 1640, and 1629 July, and resistance is at 1734, 1741, and 1760 July.  Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 430.00, 432.00, and 442.00 July.   Support is at 418.00, 408.00, and 406.00 July, and resistance is at 436.00 439.00, and 441.00 July.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 7500 and 6950 July.  Support is at 7860, 7700, and 7360 July, with resistance at 8250, 8460, and 8680 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments Palm Oil was higher today on ideas of less Malaysian production due to worker shortages from Covid and on the potential for strong exports for the month from Malaysia.  The government is now imposing a domestic reserve on exporters.  Some analysts think Palm Oil is topping out anyway due to reduced demand ideas.  Hopes for better demand from India keep the market supported.  A new Covid outbreak is reported in China and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports.  The economy could slow down and affect demand.  Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production.  Canola was closed for a holiday.   It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting but better planting weather is coming now.  StatsCan said that Canadian farmers intend to reduce planted area for Canola this year and use the area to plant Wheat instead.  There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well.  Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight. 

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 1164.00, 1129.00, and 1126.00 July, with resistance at 1200.00, 1214.00, and 1219.00 July.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed.  Support is at 6170, 6000, and 5930 August, with resistance at 6320, 6340, and 6510 August.

 

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average above normal.

 

 

 

US Gulf Cash Basis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Corn

HRW

SRW

Soybeans

Soybean Meal

Soybean Oil

May

105 July

205 July

120 July

138 July

June

105 July

205 July

120 July

138 July

July

103 July

195 July

80 July

135 July

 

 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 20

     WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices

from ICE Futures.

     Source: ICE Futures

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

                     Price     Basis     Contract     Change

CANOLA

*Par Region         1157.00     7.00     July 2022    dn  2.10

Basis: Thunder Bay  1206.30    35.00     July 2022    up 21.30

Basis: Vancouver    1226.30    55.00     July 2022    up 21.30

     All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

     *Quote for previous day.

     Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,

or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 24

  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

                 Offer       Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jun             1722.50      +40.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep     1562.50      +45.00      Unquoted   –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec     1477.50      +35.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB,     Malaysian ports

                 Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jun             1725.00     +40.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep     1565.00     +45.00      Unquoted    –       –

Oct/Nov/Dec     1480.00     +35.00      Unquoted    –       –

RBD palm stearin, FOB,  Malaysian ports

                 Offer      Change       Bid       Change   Traded

June             1635.00    +20.00       Unquoted  –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

                 Offer       Change       Bid       Change   Traded

June             1400.00     +25.00       Unquoted  –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

                 Offer       Change        Bid        Change   Traded

May              7100.00    +250.00       Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

                 Offer      Change         Bid        Change   Traded

June             432.00     +02.00         Unquoted   –        –

($1=MYR4.394)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 24

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 128,314 lots, or 8.09 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Jul-22     6,330     6,392     6,322     6,377     6,310     6,356        46    98,955   155,205

Sep-22     6,230     6,264     6,208     6,250     6,184     6,240        56    18,616    47,829

Nov-22     5,956     6,011     5,951     6,005     5,929     5,983        54    10,000    26,740

Jan-23     5,938     5,985     5,932     5,967     5,914     5,953        39       653     5,066

Mar-23     5,882     5,914     5,875     5,875     5,869     5,887        18        82       138

May-23     5,861     5,893     5,860     5,860     5,849     5,874        25         8        29

Corn

Turnover: 650,452 lots, or 19.25 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open

                                                  Settle                                  Interest

Jul-22     2,935     2,938     2,910     2,910     2,944     2,922       -22   136,921     299,451

Sep-22     2,984     2,989     2,953     2,955     2,993     2,969       -24   464,164   1,239,299

Nov-22     2,961     2,967     2,936     2,937     2,967     2,950       -17    11,166      83,586

Jan-23     2,983     2,988     2,960     2,961     2,984     2,971       -13    21,706     106,293

Mar-23     2,985     2,995     2,968     2,968     2,994     2,980       -14    15,177      40,124

May-23     3,023     3,027     3,006     3,008     3,023     3,017        -6     1,318       2,981

Soymeal

Turnover: 1,116,628 lots, or 45.61 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open

                                                  Settle                                  Interest

Jul-22     4,239     4,239     4,150     4,162     4,268     4,186       -82    61,145     184,599

Aug-22     4,269     4,269     4,170     4,185     4,298     4,208       -90    22,683     173,103

Sep-22     4,175     4,176     4,071     4,098     4,195     4,113       -82   857,255   1,335,139

Nov-22     4,086     4,086     3,990     4,005     4,099     4,023       -76    24,298      96,538

Dec-22     4,048     4,048     3,942     3,969     4,050     3,968       -82     8,015      36,904

Jan-23     3,954     3,954     3,855     3,880     3,963     3,896       -67   122,366     317,776

Mar-23     3,810     3,810     3,712     3,735     3,814     3,749       -65     7,051      19,381

May-23     3,690     3,690     3,594     3,614     3,694     3,630       -64    13,815      18,674

Palm Oil

Turnover: 792,235 lots, or 94.08 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Jun-22    14,420    14,956    14,420    14,628    14,246    14,704       458     2,964     1,761

Jul-22    13,072    13,396    12,920    13,366    12,832    13,222       390    45,031    57,681

Aug-22    12,208    12,460    12,166    12,436    12,110    12,338       228    10,636    38,073

Sep-22    11,758    11,926    11,670    11,880    11,688    11,806       118   691,262   371,527

Oct-22    11,550    11,642    11,408    11,600    11,458    11,536        78    13,349    26,007

Nov-22    11,360    11,446    11,232    11,404    11,286    11,350        64     6,923    10,818

Dec-22    11,202    11,224    11,054    11,224    11,038    11,172       134        20       118

Jan-23    11,060    11,110    10,958    11,078    11,026    11,044        18    21,143    57,969

Feb-23    10,926    11,016    10,926    11,008    10,928    10,990        62        28        54

Mar-23    11,274    11,274    10,884    10,896    10,940    10,924       -16        97       163

Apr-23    10,818    10,870    10,790    10,836    10,822    10,834        12        12       106

May-23    10,800    10,800    10,662    10,750    10,724    10,740        16       770     1,343

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 477,920 lots, or 54.59 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Jul-22    11,796    11,838    11,714    11,812    11,760    11,792        32    18,697    81,092

Aug-22    11,626    11,680    11,550    11,626    11,564    11,616        52    11,321    64,344

Sep-22    11,490    11,508    11,380    11,480    11,428    11,450        22   388,251   438,091

Nov-22    11,274    11,296    11,194    11,268    11,238    11,250        12    10,410    29,372

Dec-22    11,204    11,204    11,096    11,168    11,148    11,162        14     5,092     8,824

Jan-23    11,102    11,124    10,996    11,072    11,062    11,058        -4    36,280    57,227

Mar-23    10,940    10,958    10,856    10,920    10,922    10,912       -10     6,983     7,599

May-23    10,724    10,724    10,582    10,646    10,692    10,658       -34       886     1,475

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322