Jack Scoville
Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
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Grains Report 05/24/2022
DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – May 23
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING MAY 19, 2022
— METRIC TONS —
—————————————————————————
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 05/19/2022 05/12/2022 05/20/2021 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 10,156 33,143
CORN 1,699,092 1,060,330 1,746,162 40,833,287 49,077,116
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 324 509
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 600 6,514
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 198,848 199,428 163,697 5,975,689 5,969,124
SOYBEANS 575,781 802,575 222,107 49,092,750 56,462,600
SUNFLOWER 0 0 144 2,260 240
WHEAT 309,501 348,937 598,941 19,685,018 25,011,937
Total 2,783,222 2,411,270 2,731,051 115,600,084 136,561,183
————————————————————————–
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA
DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-May 23
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 58.702 million pounds, in April, 3.4% above the previous
month, and 66.7% above April 2021, the U.S. Department Agriculture
said Monday.
In thousand pounds.
public
Apr 30 Mar 31 Apr 30 Mar 31 warehouse
2022 2022 2021 2021 stocks/Apr
pork bellies 58,702 56,779 35,204 35,398
orange juice 488,627 479,589 754,911 664,497
french fries 958,353 965,174 921,247 950,494
other potatoes 214,785 212,819 196,239 196,076
chicken rstr (whole) 12,473 13,181 14,740 13,103
ham 98,182 74,105 80,389 60,776
total pork 530,244 485,929 456,921 451,042 448,519
total beef 531,728 535,839 448,854 482,990 519,917
total red meat 1,089,224 1,048,456 937,571 967,931 994,362
total chicken 770,320 778,563 723,132 739,826
total turkey 331,839 308,087 362,510 350,589
total poultry 1,104,057 1,088,421 1,088,516 1,093,198 1,004,812
===============================================================================
Crop Progress
Date
22-May
15-May
2021
Avg
Cotton Planted
54
37
47
51
Corn Planted
72
49
89
79
Corn Emerged
39
14
61
51
Soybeans Planted
50
30
73
55
Soybeans Emerged
21
9
38
28
Sorghum Planted
26
22
26
30
Rice Planted
91
88
94
89
Rice Emerged
66
53
74
71
Peanuts Planted
65
47
58
64
Sugarbeets Planted
50
37
99
95
Sunflowers Planted
5
1
20
15
Oats Planted
77
67
95
90
Oats Emerged
58
45
82
74
Winter Wheat Headed
63
48
65
65
Spring Wheat Planted
49
39
93
83
Spring Wheat Emerged
29
16
63
50
Barley Planted
71
61
90
85
Barley Emerged
47
32
62
55
Crop Condition
Very Poor
Poor
Fair
Good
Excellent
Winter Wheat This Week
22
18
32
24
4
Winter Wheat Last Week
24
17
32
24
3
Winter Wheat Last Year
5
13
35
39
8
Rice This Week
0
2
28
60
10
Rice Last Week
Rice Last Year
0
3
26
58
13
Oats This Week
15
11
29
40
5
Oats Last Week
Oats Last Year
4
10
33
47
6
Pastures and Ranges This Week
24
26
28
20
2
Pastures and Ranges Last Week
25
24
29
20
2
Pastures and Ranges Last Year
18
21
33
24
4
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday in range trading as the focus once again was on bad world conditions and US conditions for the world demand. Europe is too hot and dry and India and Pakistan are both getting major heat waves and dry conditions. India has exempted Egypt from the ban and will honor previous commitments. It had been expected to offer up to 12 million tons to the world market. Ukraine exports were reduced due to the war and the trade is hoping for improved production in the EU to make up the difference. USDA reduced production estimates for Hard Red Winter Wheat in the US recently due to the hot and dry conditions in the western Great Plains and reduced Spring Wheat production estimates due to delayed planting. Only Russia says it has a very big crop coming and many will not buy from there because of the sanctions..
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers in western areas. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 1129 and 1046 July. Support is at 1169, 1143, and 1107 July, with resistance at 1212, 1247, and 1284 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 1203 and 1123 July. Support is at 1252, 1200, and 1179 July, with resistance at 1303, 1379, and 1397 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 1255 and 1176 July. Support is at 1276, 1249, and 1235 July, and resistance is at 1340, 1412, and 1424 July.
RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher but closed in the middle of the daily trading range after trading much higher early in the day. The planting pace is thought to be catching up to normal, but acreage estimates are still down for the next crop. Some traders note that it will be difficult to move Rice at current price levels and they are worried about domestic and export demand moving forward. It is hot and dry in India and it is possible that Rice production will be affected. Rice is a highly political grain for India and the government goes out of its way to subsidize the crop production and support Rice farmers. It usually allows for export prices to fall and often sells it Rice internationally at below costs of production. Prices could rally significantly in the world market if India can’t export.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1786 and 1825 July. Support is at 1706, 1672, and 1661 July and resistance is at 1749, 1782, and 1815 July.
CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed higher in range trading as ideas continue that farmers are making rapid progress in getting Corn planted. The weather was variable last week with periods of rain and very cool temperatures and then warm and dry conditions and more of the same is expected this week. Many think the top end of the yield has been taken off the Corn crop due to the delayed planting. It already thinks there is reduced planted area because of the March planning intentions reports from USDA and the bad planting weather. The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter. China has a Covid outbreak and has closed some cities and some ports in response.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 773, 769, and 753 July, and resistance is at 797, 810, and 814 July. Trends in Oats are mixed Support is at 625, 607, and 597 July, and resistance is at 644, 659, and 672 July.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher as the US cash market needs some sales from producers. Soybean Oil was lower for the week despite news that Indonesia will allow exports of Palm Oil again starting Monday but now with a reserve requirement designed to keep the domestic market well supplied. There are still fears of a cooling economy and forecasts for much improved planting weather this week. Soybean Oil remains well supported as demand is holding strong amid very tight supplies of vegetable oils here and around the world. There are still worries about Chinese demand because of Covid lockdowns there. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America. They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs. Most of the current buying is for next year. Ideas are that the Chinese economy could slow down due to the Covid lockdowns there and cause the country to purchase less Soybeans in the world market.
Overnight News: Egypt bought 130,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with no objectives. Support is at 1645, 1640, and 1629 July, and resistance is at 1734, 1741, and 1760 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 430.00, 432.00, and 442.00 July. Support is at 418.00, 408.00, and 406.00 July, and resistance is at 436.00 439.00, and 441.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 7500 and 6950 July. Support is at 7860, 7700, and 7360 July, with resistance at 8250, 8460, and 8680 July.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today on ideas of less Malaysian production due to worker shortages from Covid and on the potential for strong exports for the month from Malaysia. The government is now imposing a domestic reserve on exporters. Some analysts think Palm Oil is topping out anyway due to reduced demand ideas. Hopes for better demand from India keep the market supported. A new Covid outbreak is reported in China and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports. The economy could slow down and affect demand. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was closed for a holiday. It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting but better planting weather is coming now. StatsCan said that Canadian farmers intend to reduce planted area for Canola this year and use the area to plant Wheat instead. There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well. Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 1164.00, 1129.00, and 1126.00 July, with resistance at 1200.00, 1214.00, and 1219.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 6170, 6000, and 5930 August, with resistance at 6320, 6340, and 6510 August.
Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn
HRW
SRW
Soybeans
Soybean Meal
Soybean Oil
May
105 July
205 July
120 July
138 July
June
105 July
205 July
120 July
138 July
July
103 July
195 July
80 July
135 July
DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 20
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 1157.00 7.00 July 2022 dn 2.10
Basis: Thunder Bay 1206.30 35.00 July 2022 up 21.30
Basis: Vancouver 1226.30 55.00 July 2022 up 21.30
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 24
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1722.50 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1562.50 +45.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1477.50 +35.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1725.00 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1565.00 +45.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1480.00 +35.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 1635.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 1400.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 7100.00 +250.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 432.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.394)
DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 24
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 128,314 lots, or 8.09 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 6,330 6,392 6,322 6,377 6,310 6,356 46 98,955 155,205
Sep-22 6,230 6,264 6,208 6,250 6,184 6,240 56 18,616 47,829
Nov-22 5,956 6,011 5,951 6,005 5,929 5,983 54 10,000 26,740
Jan-23 5,938 5,985 5,932 5,967 5,914 5,953 39 653 5,066
Mar-23 5,882 5,914 5,875 5,875 5,869 5,887 18 82 138
May-23 5,861 5,893 5,860 5,860 5,849 5,874 25 8 29
Corn
Turnover: 650,452 lots, or 19.25 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 2,935 2,938 2,910 2,910 2,944 2,922 -22 136,921 299,451
Sep-22 2,984 2,989 2,953 2,955 2,993 2,969 -24 464,164 1,239,299
Nov-22 2,961 2,967 2,936 2,937 2,967 2,950 -17 11,166 83,586
Jan-23 2,983 2,988 2,960 2,961 2,984 2,971 -13 21,706 106,293
Mar-23 2,985 2,995 2,968 2,968 2,994 2,980 -14 15,177 40,124
May-23 3,023 3,027 3,006 3,008 3,023 3,017 -6 1,318 2,981
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,116,628 lots, or 45.61 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 4,239 4,239 4,150 4,162 4,268 4,186 -82 61,145 184,599
Aug-22 4,269 4,269 4,170 4,185 4,298 4,208 -90 22,683 173,103
Sep-22 4,175 4,176 4,071 4,098 4,195 4,113 -82 857,255 1,335,139
Nov-22 4,086 4,086 3,990 4,005 4,099 4,023 -76 24,298 96,538
Dec-22 4,048 4,048 3,942 3,969 4,050 3,968 -82 8,015 36,904
Jan-23 3,954 3,954 3,855 3,880 3,963 3,896 -67 122,366 317,776
Mar-23 3,810 3,810 3,712 3,735 3,814 3,749 -65 7,051 19,381
May-23 3,690 3,690 3,594 3,614 3,694 3,630 -64 13,815 18,674
Palm Oil
Turnover: 792,235 lots, or 94.08 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-22 14,420 14,956 14,420 14,628 14,246 14,704 458 2,964 1,761
Jul-22 13,072 13,396 12,920 13,366 12,832 13,222 390 45,031 57,681
Aug-22 12,208 12,460 12,166 12,436 12,110 12,338 228 10,636 38,073
Sep-22 11,758 11,926 11,670 11,880 11,688 11,806 118 691,262 371,527
Oct-22 11,550 11,642 11,408 11,600 11,458 11,536 78 13,349 26,007
Nov-22 11,360 11,446 11,232 11,404 11,286 11,350 64 6,923 10,818
Dec-22 11,202 11,224 11,054 11,224 11,038 11,172 134 20 118
Jan-23 11,060 11,110 10,958 11,078 11,026 11,044 18 21,143 57,969
Feb-23 10,926 11,016 10,926 11,008 10,928 10,990 62 28 54
Mar-23 11,274 11,274 10,884 10,896 10,940 10,924 -16 97 163
Apr-23 10,818 10,870 10,790 10,836 10,822 10,834 12 12 106
May-23 10,800 10,800 10,662 10,750 10,724 10,740 16 770 1,343
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 477,920 lots, or 54.59 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 11,796 11,838 11,714 11,812 11,760 11,792 32 18,697 81,092
Aug-22 11,626 11,680 11,550 11,626 11,564 11,616 52 11,321 64,344
Sep-22 11,490 11,508 11,380 11,480 11,428 11,450 22 388,251 438,091
Nov-22 11,274 11,296 11,194 11,268 11,238 11,250 12 10,410 29,372
Dec-22 11,204 11,204 11,096 11,168 11,148 11,162 14 5,092 8,824
Jan-23 11,102 11,124 10,996 11,072 11,062 11,058 -4 36,280 57,227
Mar-23 10,940 10,958 10,856 10,920 10,922 10,912 -10 6,983 7,599
May-23 10,724 10,724 10,582 10,646 10,692 10,658 -34 886 1,475
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322