About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower on Friday and lower after a choppy week on fears about demand. The weekly export sales report was not strong on Thursday morning. New crop months were lower as hot and dry conditions in the western Great Plains continue for now. It is also hot and dry in India and crops grown there are thought to be under stress as well. There are ideas that production potential is slipping further due to the hot and dry weather in West Texas and the rest of the western Great Plains. USDA estimated production for the coming year at 16.50 million bales and this was below trade expectations. USDA said that planted area was less than had been previously forecast due to the hot and dry weather in the western Great Plains. Chinese demand could become less due to the Covid lockdowns there be trimming imports due to Covid and has closed a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation. China has been buying even with the port closures and domestic difficulties caused by renewed Covid lockdowns.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 137.27 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,088 bales, from 1,088 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 141.10, 140.70, and 134.60 July, with resistance of 145.00, 148.80 and 151.90 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 17, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 285,252
: Positions :
: 62,622 10,950 69,710 53,581 184,899 79,002 10,949 264,915 276,507: 20,338 8,745
: Changes from: May 10, 2022 (Change in open interest: 6,937) :
: -3,835 -606 3,193 5,273 2,750 740 834 5,372 6,171: 1,566 766
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 22.0 3.8 24.4 18.8 64.8 27.7 3.8 92.9 96.9: 7.1 3.1
: Total Traders: 281 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 129 34 81 54 61 49 20 256 175:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little higher on Friday and for the week on demand concerns and trends are still mixed on the daily charts. A freeze was possible in center south parts of Brazil and Oranges production could have been affected. USDA increased its Florida and US production estimates by about 2 million boxes to 40.2 million boxes last week. USDA had been cutting production in previous estimates. The market is short Oranges and short juice production but is also worried about domestic demand destruction as pills are becoming cheaper again. The greening disease has taken its toll on the US crop and the previous Brazil crop was down significantly due to drought. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good, but it is drier now and some tree stress could develop soon. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get isolated showers and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 312 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 166.00, 164.00, and 160.00 July, with resistance at 173.00, 179.00, and 182.00 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 17, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 14,874 :
: Positions :
: 1,622 11,188 3,004 106 13 4,330 61 477 898 150 2,058 :
: Changes from: May 10, 2022 :
: 538 198 227 106 5 -36 61 -17 -98 -67 108 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.9 75.2 20.2 0.7 0.1 29.1 0.4 3.2 6.0 1.0 13.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 61 :
: 15 14 5 . . 23 . 4 8 5 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed lower and held to a sideways range on the charts. There was some early buying in response to new production estimates from Brazil. Some selling was seen on ideas that a Brazil freeze will cause a little harm to trees or fruit. CONAB estimates total Brazil production at 53.4 million bags, down from its previous estimate of 55.7 million. Arabica production was estimated at 35.7 million bags and Robusta production was estimated at 17.7 million bags. It could freeze in at least Parana and crops could be damaged as much below normal temperatures are forecast for this weekend. However, how cold and where is the question and ideas are that Coffee will escape with no damage. The Ukraine war is supporting ideas of less demand from Europe generally and Ukraine and Russia. Demand from China is thought to be less due to the war against Covid. Deliveries from Vietnam and Brazil Robusta are noted to be decreasing as the harvest is now complete, but selling was active in previous months.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.104 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 192.53 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with below normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 213.00, 209.00, and 205.00 July, and resistance is at 221.00, 224.00 and 229.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2030, 2010, and 1990 July, and resistance is at 2100, 2120, and 2130 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 17, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 37,500 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 258,477 :
: Positions :
: 89,504 127,838 30,813 30,651 8,374 36,008 6,954 18,910 10,731 4,133 55,103 :
: Changes from: May 10, 2022 :
: -10,647 -2,617 -612 2,194 -1,077 2,187 -7,568 -1,754 -348 -110 -1,664 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 34.6 49.5 11.9 11.9 3.2 13.9 2.7 7.3 4.2 1.6 21.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 379 :
: 112 105 21 18 21 85 32 65 57 40 57 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/17/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
122,244 70,333 78,340 2,825 12,277 1,881
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 57.5% 64.1% 2.3% 10.0% 1.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
132 42 40 9 7 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
21,824 4,869 5,000 4,253 5,958 10,480
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
17.9% 4.0% 4.1% 3.5% 4.9% 8.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
28 13 12 7 12 15
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,648 3,439
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.6% 2.8%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week with freezing temperatures possible through this weekend in Brazil. Ideas are that prices for Sugar are relatively cheap in the world market. Sugarcane production could easily be affected in central-south areas. The price action implies renewed demand for White Sugar has appeared in the world market. Increased offers from India and Thailand are expected if the market rallies. Pakistan is also increasing its offers due to good crops there. All are primarily exporters of White Sugar while Brazil exports more Raw Sugar. Thailand expects to produce about 10 million tons of sugar this year, up 33% from last year. India said it could export more than 9.0 million tons of Sugar. Brazil mills are crushing for Ethanol at this time and not Sugar
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal. India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2030 and 2100 July. Support is at 1940, 1920, and 1890 July and resistance is at 2020, 2040, and 2050 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 548.00, 542.00, and 536.00 August and resistance is at 560.00, 566.00, and 572.00 August.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 17, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 112,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 991,720 :
: Positions :
: 260,378 470,629 136,199 179,454 36,141 216,816 34,966 87,259 37,718 14,214 118,202 :
: Changes from: May 10, 2022 :
: 19,265 40,209 1,433 15,394 -622 7,019 -15,996 11,437 3,268 6,117 4,233 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 26.3 47.5 13.7 18.1 3.6 21.9 3.5 8.8 3.8 1.4 11.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 245 :
: 59 62 15 14 19 71 21 54 32 18 35 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/17/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
72,395 24,958 59,758 8,726 3,826 2,286
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 34.5% 82.5% 12.1% 5.3% 3.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
102 32 38 7 3 4
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
24,278 2,218 1,756 3,303 130 135
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
33.5% 3.1% 2.4% 4.6% 0.2% 0.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
35 3 12 6 1 3
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,953 2,286
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
9.6% 3.2%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London moved lower again last week and chart patterns are sideways for the weekly charts. The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa. Current reports from Ivory Coast indicate that the weather is a good mix of sun and rain so a good midcrop production is expected. The weather is good in Southeast Asia. Ghana arrivals have been below year ago levels, but Ivory Coast arrivals are ahead of last year.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.120 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2360 July. Support is at 2410, 2370, and 2340 July, with resistance at 2470, 2490, and 2530 July. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1730, 1710, and 1680 July. Support is at 1740, 1720, and 1710 July, with resistance at 1770, 1790, and 1810 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 17, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 10 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 334,761 :
: Positions :
: 107,317 135,290 24,722 11,580 15,959 62,100 60,870 35,848 15,894 7,800 55,539 :
: Changes from: May 10, 2022 :
: 4,331 672 196 617 1,764 -2,093 2,230 3,539 788 -895 2,528 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 32.1 40.4 7.4 3.5 4.8 18.6 18.2 10.7 4.7 2.3 16.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 255 :
: 46 32 19 . 14 50 63 53 38 26 33 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/17/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
298,433 163,487 180,007 26,309 36,745 19,213
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 54.8% 60.3% 8.8% 12.3% 6.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
141 51 45 14 8 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
31,874 13,122 19,610 9,856 103 26,743
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
10.7% 4.4% 6.6% 3.3% 0.0% 9.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
22 20 18 17 3 15
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
1,341 2,890
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.4% 1.0%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322