About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was mixed as the US stock markets recovered and traded sideways and fears about demand returned. The export sales report was not strong, but July closed higher. New crop months were lower on forecasts for some precipitation in west Texas. but hot and dry conditions in the western Great Plains continue for now. It is also hot and dry in India and crops grown there are thought to be under stress as well. There are ideas that production potential is slipping further due to the hot and dry weather in West Texas and the rest of the western Great Plains. USDA estimated production for the coming year at 16.50 million bales and this was below trade expectations. USDA said that planted area was less than had been previously forecast due to the hot and dry weather in the western Great Plains. Chinese demand could become less due to the Covid lockdowns there be trimming imports due to Covid and has closed a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation. China has been buying even with the port closures and domestic difficulties caused by renewed Covid lockdowns.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 142.70 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,088 bales, from 1,088 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 145.00, 142.10, and 141.10 July, with resistance of 151.90, 155.90 and 156.80 July.

DJ On-Call Cotton – May 19
As of May 13. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Jul 22 50,498 55,727 -5,229 4,681 5,387 -706
Oct 22 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 22 54,378 54,581 -203 23,546 23,621 -75
Mar 23 6,665 6,668 -3 2,840 2,836 4
May 23 4,783 4,329 454 142 142 0
Jul 23 9,611 8,892 719 17 17 0
Dec 23 4,017 3,869 148 10,586 10,343 243
Mar 24 0 0 0 0 0 0
May 24 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jul 24 0 0 0 220 220 0
Dec 24 0 0 0 249 249 0
Total 129,952 134,066 -4,114 42,281 42,815 -534
Open Open Change
Int Int
Jul 22 84,975 90,788 -5,813
Oct 22 33 42 -9
Dec 22 80,527 79,397 1,130
Mar 23 15,764 15,118 646
May 23 5,421 4,508 913
Jul 23 5,367 5,019 348
Dec 23 10,052 10,157 -105
Mar 24 36 36 0
May 24 22 22 0
Jul 24 28 28 0
Dec 24 33 32 1
Total 202,258 205,147 -2,889

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little lower again yesterday on demand concerns and trends are still mixed on the daily charts. A freeze is possible in center south parts of Brazil and Oranges production could be affected later this week. USDA increased its Florida and US production estimates by about 2 million boxes to 40.2 million boxes last week. USDA had been cutting production in previous estimates. The market is short Oranges and short juice production but is also worried about domestic demand destruction as pills are becoming cheaper again. The greening disease has taken its toll on the US crop and the previous Brazil crop was down significantly due to drought. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good, but it is drier now and some tree stress could develop soon. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get isolated showers and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 312 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 166.00, 164.00, and 160.00 July, with resistance at 173.00, 179.00, and 182.00 July.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher in response to new production estimates from Brazil. Some buying was seen on ideas that a Brazil freeze will cause a little harm to trees or fruit. London closed higher in sympathy with New York. CONAB estimates total Brazil production at 53.4 million bags, down from its previous estimate of 55.7 million. Arabica production was estimated at 35.7 million bags and Robusta production was estimated at 17.7 million bags. It could freeze in at least Parana and crops could be damaged as much below normal temperatures are forecast for this weekend. However, how cold and where is the question and ideas are that Coffee will escape with no damage. The Ukraine war is supporting ideas of less demand from Europe generally and Ukraine and Russia. Demand from China is thought to be less due to the war against Covid. Deliveries from Vietnam and Brazil Robusta are noted to be decreasing as the harvest is now complete, but selling was active in previous months.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.108 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 193.49 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with below normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 213.00, 209.00, and 205.00 July, and resistance is at 221.00, 224.00 and 229.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2030, 2010, and 1990 July, and resistance is at 2090, 2120, and 2130 July.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed a little lower again yesterday in consolidation trading with freezing temperatures possible through this weekend in Brazil. Ideas are that prices for Sugar are relatively cheap in the world market. Sugarcane production could easily be affected in central-south areas. The price action implies renewed demand for White Sugar has appeared in the world market. Increased offers from India and Thailand are expected if the market rallies. Pakistan is also increasing its offers due to good crops there. All are primarily exporters of White Sugar while Brazil exports more Raw Sugar. Thailand expects to produce about 10 million tons of sugar this year, up 33% from last year. India said it could export more than 9.0 million tons of Sugar. Brazil mills are crushing for Ethanol at this time and not Sugar
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal. India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2030 and 2100 July. Support is at 1940, 1920, and 1890 July and resistance is at 2020, 2040, and 2050 July. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 548.00, 542.00, and 536.00 August and resistance is at 560.00, 566.00, and 572.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London moved lower again. The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa. Current reports from Ivory Coast indicate that the weather is a good mix of sun and rain so a good midcrop production is expected. The weather is good in Southeast Asia. Ghana arrivals have been below year ago levels, but Ivory Coast arrivals are ahead of last year.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.052 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2410, 2370, and 2340 July, with resistance at 2490, 2530, and 2570 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1740, 1720, and 1710 July, with resistance at 1770, 1790, and 1810 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322