About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower again in response to new concerns about the economic health pf the US and around the world The charts show that futures closed a gap on the chargts from the beginning of the week and then closed above the gap, so some buying might be possible today. The USDA crop reports on Monday showed deteriorating crop conditions for US Wheat and the Kansas Crop Tour going on this week is confirming the bad growing conditions and poor yield prospects. India has exempted Egypt from the ban and will honor previous commitments. It had been expected to offer up to 12 million tons to the world market. Ukraine exports were reduced due to the war and the trade is hoping for improved production in the EU to make up the difference. USDA reduced production estimates for Hard Red Winter Wheat in the US last week due to the hot and dry conditions in the western Great Plains and reduced Spring Wheat production estimates due to delayed planting.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers in western areas. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 1143, 1107, and 1083 July, with resistance at 1247, 1284, and 1296 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 1278, 1259, and 1200 July, with resistance at 1379, 1392, and 1404 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 1310, 1249, and 1235 July, and resistance is at 1412, 1424, and 1436 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher as the US stock market started to hold and as Crude Oil worked higher. The planting pace is thought to be catching up to normal, but acreage estimates are still down for the next crop. Some traders note that it will be difficult to move Rice at current price levels and they are worried about domestic and export demand moving forward. It is hot and dry in India and it is possible that Rice production will be affected. Rice is a highly political grain for India and the government goes out of its way to subsidize the crop production and support Rice farmers. It usually allows for export prices to fall and often sells it Rice internationally at below costs of production. Prices could rally significantly in the world market if India can’t export.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1672, 1661, and 1658 July and resistance is at 1736, 1749, and 1782 July.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed mixed, with July a little higher but new crop months lower on ideas that farmers are making rapid progress in getting Corn planted. The weather has been variable this week with periods of rain and then warm and dry conditions. USDA showed much improved planting progress on Monday and forecasts call for better planting weather into next week. Many think the top end of the yield has been taken off the Corn crop due to the delayed planting. It already thinks there is reduced planted area because of the March planning intentions reports from USDA and the bad planting weather. The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter. China has a Covid outbreak and has closed some cities and some ports in response.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 773, 769, and 753 July, and resistance is at 797, 810, and 814 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 668 and 729 July Support is at 6122, 592, and 586 July, and resistance is at 659, 672, and 685 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher as the US cash market needs some sales from producers. Soyb4ean Oil was lowr in response to news that Inonesia will allow exports of Palm Oil again starting Monday. There are still fears of a cooling economy and forecasts for much improved planting weather this week. Soybean Oil remains well supported as demand is holding strong amid very tight supplies of vegetable oils here and around the world. There are still worries about Chinese demand because of Covid lockdowns there. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America. They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs. Most of the current buying is for next year. Ideas are that the Chinese economy could slow down due to the Covid lockdowns there and cause the country to purchase less Soybeans in the world market.
Overnight News
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1645, 1640, and 1629 July, and resistance is at 1700, 1734, and 1741 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 430.00, 432.00, and 442.00 July. Support is at 418.00, 408.00, and 406.00 July, and resistance is at 436.00 439.00, and 441.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 7500 and 6950 July. Support is at 7860, 7700, and 7360 July, with resistance at 8250, 8460, and 8680 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher as Indonesia once again imposed a domestic sales policy on the market. The government is now imposing a domestic reserve on exporters. Some analysts think Palm Oil is topping out anyway due to reduced demand ideas. Hopes for better demand from India keep the market supported. A new Covid outbreak is reported in China and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports. The economy could slow down and affect demand. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was lower yesterday along with Chicago and Malaysia. Trends turned up on the daily charts on Friday. It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting but better planting weather is coming now. StatsCan said that Canadian farmers intend to reduce planted area for Canola this year and use the area to plant Wheat instead. There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well. Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 1129.00, 1126.00, and 1122.00 July, with resistance at 1167.00, 1186.00, and 1214.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 5670 and 5340 August. Support is at 5840, 5780, and 5640 August, with resistance at 6130, 6340, and 6510 August.

DJ Malaysia May 1-20 Palm Oil Exports Up 32.6%, SGS Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the May 1-20 period are estimated to be up 32.6% on month at 838,692 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Friday.
The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
May 1-20 April 1-20
RBD Palm Olein 285,722 164,691
RBD Palm Oil 84,322 61,900
RBD Palm Stearin 60,992 56,619
Crude Palm Oil 168,568 132,585
Total* 838,692 632,588
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.
SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de Surveillance Group.

DJ Malaysia May 1-20 Palm Oil Exports 794,527 Tons, Up 30%, AmSpec Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the May 1-20 period are estimated up 30% on month at 794,527 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Friday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
May 1-20 April 1-20
RBD Palm Olein 294,655 174,643
RBD Palm Oil 84,822 66,460
RBD Palm Stearin 60,101 51,812
Crude Palm Oil 157,714 155,785
Total* 794,527 610,728
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May
105 July
205 July
120 July
138 July

June
105 July
205 July
120 July
138 July

July
103 July
195 July
80 July
135 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 19
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 1159.10 7.00 July 2022 dn 37.90
Basis: Thunder Bay 1185.00 35.00 July 2022 dn 2.10
Basis: Vancouver 1205.00 55.00 July 2022 dn 2.10
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 20
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1647.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1482.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1412.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1650.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1485.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1415.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 1560.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 1360.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 6750.00 +70.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 427.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.387)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 20
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 84,676 lots, or 5.28 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 6,263 6,314 6,263 6,310 6,263 6,293 30 65,280 137,928
Sep-22 6,160 6,185 6,144 6,182 6,145 6,162 17 11,023 41,399
Nov-22 5,889 5,936 5,889 5,931 5,895 5,916 21 7,589 25,335
Jan-23 5,893 5,908 5,875 5,904 5,866 5,892 26 707 4,450
Mar-23 5,851 5,868 5,851 5,868 5,835 5,865 30 69 351
May-23 5,833 5,851 5,824 5,851 5,818 5,836 18 8 23
Corn
Turnover: 460,418 lots, or 13.76 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 2,943 2,959 2,936 2,959 2,954 2,948 -6 74,538 346,181
Sep-22 2,995 3,012 2,986 3,010 3,003 2,998 -5 347,574 1,258,205
Nov-22 2,963 2,979 2,961 2,979 2,977 2,971 -6 12,932 79,604
Jan-23 2,978 2,995 2,972 2,995 2,988 2,984 -4 15,054 97,754
Mar-23 2,981 3,002 2,981 3,000 2,997 2,993 -4 9,195 35,344
May-23 3,018 3,027 3,010 3,025 3,026 3,022 -4 1,125 1,725
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,017,608 lots, or 4.20 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 4,199 4,273 4,199 4,260 4,224 4,251 27 63,041 196,886
Aug-22 4,223 4,295 4,223 4,282 4,240 4,267 27 41,017 168,429
Sep-22 4,117 4,176 4,110 4,174 4,129 4,155 26 724,993 1,397,725
Nov-22 4,016 4,073 4,009 4,071 4,032 4,047 15 31,320 91,210
Dec-22 3,963 4,027 3,960 4,023 3,969 3,997 28 8,521 33,669
Jan-23 3,880 3,945 3,877 3,941 3,891 3,919 28 134,287 278,916
Mar-23 3,734 3,796 3,733 3,788 3,740 3,767 27 8,150 18,613
May-23 3,645 3,695 3,642 3,693 3,653 3,671 18 6,279 5,329
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,344,139 lots, or 15.41 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-22 13,588 14,366 13,588 14,246 13,902 13,994 92 2,525 2,460
Jul-22 12,398 12,982 12,194 12,982 12,502 12,488 -14 46,503 60,536
Aug-22 11,838 12,216 11,570 12,192 11,858 11,780 -78 13,179 36,110
Sep-22 11,302 11,784 11,210 11,762 11,464 11,442 -22 1,223,010 348,931
Oct-22 11,204 11,550 11,020 11,530 11,256 11,208 -48 13,475 23,365
Nov-22 10,866 11,378 10,866 11,356 11,120 11,046 -74 7,866 9,044
Dec-22 10,622 11,222 10,620 11,222 10,960 10,914 -46 43 126
Jan-23 10,800 11,102 10,650 11,068 10,892 10,856 -36 36,822 57,270
Feb-23 10,608 10,928 10,596 10,928 10,808 10,670 -138 41 60
Mar-23 10,656 10,934 10,530 10,914 10,728 10,674 -54 43 154
Apr-23 10,566 10,900 10,492 10,756 10,668 10,708 40 49 113
May-23 10,510 10,784 10,310 10,760 10,580 10,558 -22 583 526
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 819,909 lots, or 92.22 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 11,482 11,776 11,350 11,776 11,482 11,560 78 22,019 86,463
Aug-22 11,288 11,566 11,216 11,518 11,352 11,392 40 18,048 62,205
Sep-22 11,150 11,442 11,092 11,428 11,240 11,268 28 696,427 426,775
Nov-22 10,998 11,260 10,932 11,240 11,082 11,082 0 13,459 27,795
Dec-22 10,898 11,172 10,840 11,158 10,992 11,026 34 5,860 8,389
Jan-23 10,820 11,100 10,750 11,060 10,904 10,950 46 52,260 42,995
Mar-23 10,706 10,952 10,638 10,930 10,782 10,806 24 11,550 5,266
May-23 10,600 10,778 10,504 10,756 10,646 10,676 30 286 219
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322