About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Global Grain Production to Hit Record in 2021/22
By Yusuf Khan
Global production of grains is to hit a record in the current season, according to a new International Grains Council report.
Global grain production is forecast to reach 2.291 billion metric tons in 2021/22, largely boosted by corn production, the IGC said Thursday.
Corn production is forecast to be 1.214 billion tons, wheat 781 million tons, rice 514 million tons and soybeans 349 million tons.
The IGC expects consumption to rise in the current season to 2.286 billion tons from 2.232 billion tons in 2020/21 – about 2% higher.
The increase in consumption is forecast to “fall slightly short of the increase in supply, leading to a modest increase in carryover stocks, to 607 million tons,” the IGC said. This was “partly reflecting ongoing restricted shipments by Ukraine,” it said, with world trade forecast to contract by 2%, to 416 million tons.
The IGC’s wheat price index rose 9.3% month-on-month compared to April, with supply concerns from the Black Sea driving price hikes globally.

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – May 19
For the week ended May 12, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 8.5 325.6 19438.2 25648.9 1579.1 2757.8
hrw -34.8 91.6 7475.2 8716.5 592.0 693.5
srw 2.9 13.5 2878.3 1875.3 200.2 679.5
hrs 63.0 120.8 5522.6 7751.5 553.7 793.7
white -22.6 99.6 3366.2 6625.1 232.8 526.7
durum 0.0 0.0 196.0 680.4 0.5 64.4
corn 435.3 588.5 58926.0 68021.2 16004.8 5579.8
soybeans 752.7 149.5 59208.2 61463.3 10487.5 11375.1
soymeal 293.1 0.0 10361.4 9889.5 2709.5 386.9
soyoil -0.5 0.0 665.3 665.0 107.1 0.0
upland cotton 110.9 25.4 14861.8 15375.4 5561.5 3055.4
pima cotton 2.3 2.7 472.0 784.7 100.3 50.2
sorghum -67.3 0.0 6765.5 7349.1 1421.9 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 20.5 28.6 5.2 8.6
rice 13.1 0.0 2657.4 3104.4 435.1 2.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower in response to big weakness in US stock markets causing new concerns about the economic health pf the US and around the world The USDA crop reports on Monday showed deteriorating crop conditions for US Wheat and the Kansas Crop Tour going on this week is confirming the bad growing conditions and poor yield prospects. India has exempted Egypt from the ban and will honor previous commitments. It had been expected to offer up to 12 million tons to the world market. Ukraine exports were reduced due to the war and the trade is hoping for improved production in the EU to make up the difference. USDA reduced production estimates for Hard Red Winter Wheat in the US last week due to the hot and dry conditions in the western Great Plains and reduced Spring Wheat production estimates due to delayed planting.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers in western areas. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 1342 July. Support is at 1198, 1143, and 1107 July, with resistance at 1284, 1296, and 1308 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1299, 1292, and 1259 July, with resistance at 1379, 1392, and 1404 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1280, 1246, and 1203 July, and resistance is at 1395, 1413, and 1420 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower along with the other markets on demand concerns and worries about the health of the US economy and those around the world caused by the high prices of many goods. It is hot and dry in India and it is possible that Rice production will be affected. Rice is a highly political grain for India and the government goes out of its way to subsidize the crop production and support Rice farmers. It usually allows for export prices to fall and often sells it Rice internationally at below costs of production. Prices could rally significantly in the world market if India can’t export.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1661, 1658, and 1635 July and resistance is at 1736, 1749, and 1782 July.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed lower yesterday on weakness in the US stock markets that caused concerns about a recession forming due to the current inflation to increase. USDA showed much improved planting progress on Monday and forecasts call for better planting weather this week. Warm temperatures are being reported in the Midwest this week and ideas are that planting progress is about to increase rapidly. Many think the top end of the yield has been taken off the Corn crop due to the delayed planting. It already thinks there is reduced planted area because of the March planning intentions reports from USDA and the bad planting weather. The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter. China has a Covid outbreak and has closed some cities and some ports in response.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 778, 769, and 753 July, and resistance is at 797, 810, and 814 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 668 and 729 July Support is at 627, 612, and 592 July, and resistance is at 659, 672, and 685 July.

DJ U.S. Ethanol Stocks Decline
By Kirk Maltais
Inventories of ethanol in the U.S. fell within the last week, according to the latest data from the EIA.
In its latest weekly report, the EIA said that U.S. ethanol stocks fell back below the 24 million barrel mark, to 23.79 million barrels from 24.14 million barrels last week. This weeks’ total falls on the low end of expectations from analysts surveyed by Dow Jones, with analysts forecasting stocks of between 23.78 million barrels and 24.29 million barrels.
Daily production, meanwhile, stayed unchanged from last weeks’ figure at 991,000 barrels a day. Analysts were mixed in their expectations for production, estimating anywhere from 970,000 barrels to 1 million barrels.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were lower in sympathy with a falling US stock market yesterday. There are still fears of a cooling economy and forecasts for much improved planting weather this week. Soybean Oil remains well supported as demand is holding strong amid very tight supplies of vegetable oils here and around the world. There are still worries about Chinese demand because of Covid lockdowns there. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America. They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs. Most of the current buying is for next year. Ideas are that the Chinese economy could slow down due to the Covid lockdowns there and cause the country to purchase less Soybeans in the world market.
Overnight News
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1645, 1640, and 1629 July, and resistance is at 1687, 1708, and 1734 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 406.00, 395.00, and 393.00 July, and resistance is at 419.00 429.00, and 436.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 7910, 7850, and 7700 July, with resistance at 8250, 8460, and 8680 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower as Indonesia said that it will lift its export ban on Monday. Hopes for better demand from India keep the market supported. A new Covid outbreak is reported in China and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports. The economy could slow down and affect demand. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was lower yesterday along with Chicago. Trends turned up on the daily charts on Friday. It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting but better planting weather is coming now. StatsCan said that Canadian farmers intend to reduce planted area for Canola this year and use the area to plant Wheat instead. There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well. Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 1141.00, 1129.00, and 1122.00 July, with resistance at 1167.00, 1186.00, and 1214.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 6060, 6020, and 5840 August, with resistance at 6340, 6510, and 6530 August.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May
105 July
205 July
120 July
138 July

June
105 July
205 July
120 July
138 July

July
103 July
195 July
80 July
135 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 18
WINNIPEG — May 18 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 1197.00 7.00 July 2022 up 1.00
Basis: Thunder Bay 1187.10 35.00 July 2022 dn 37.90
Basis: Vancouver 1207.10 55.00 July 2022 dn 37.90
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 19
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Jun 1642.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1472.50 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1407.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1645.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1475.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1410.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 1555.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 1355.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 6680.00 -70.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 430.00 -06.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.402)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 19
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 78,729 lots, or 4.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 6,264 6,293 6,238 6,284 6,271 6,263 -8 59,400 132,083
Sep-22 6,130 6,175 6,119 6,160 6,149 6,145 -4 11,924 39,815
Nov-22 5,890 5,916 5,875 5,915 5,897 5,895 -2 6,792 24,421
Jan-23 5,847 5,888 5,843 5,882 5,875 5,866 -9 475 4,209
Mar-23 5,833 5,848 5,801 5,842 5,844 5,835 -9 68 415
May-23 5,836 5,876 5,785 5,817 5,844 5,818 -26 70 20
Corn
Turnover: 484,041 lots, or 14.49 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 2,954 2,967 2,943 2,947 2,961 2,954 -7 73,279 345,061
Sep-22 3,008 3,018 2,992 2,998 3,011 3,003 -8 357,207 1,254,647
Nov-22 2,980 2,990 2,966 2,968 2,985 2,977 -8 17,443 77,872
Jan-23 2,996 3,004 2,975 2,981 2,997 2,988 -9 22,179 96,691
Mar-23 3,003 3,006 2,984 2,989 3,000 2,997 -3 12,063 35,016
May-23 3,004 3,036 3,004 3,018 3,000 3,026 26 1,870 1,021
Soymeal
Turnover: 964,405 lots, or 39.64 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 4,243 4,254 4,197 4,207 4,243 4,224 -19 47,242 202,343
Aug-22 4,250 4,271 4,213 4,225 4,248 4,240 -8 37,070 162,487
Sep-22 4,141 4,162 4,102 4,114 4,143 4,129 -14 751,390 1,356,041
Nov-22 4,055 4,067 4,001 4,015 4,054 4,032 -22 35,204 88,685
Dec-22 3,988 4,004 3,950 3,964 3,988 3,969 -19 9,717 32,608
Jan-23 3,910 3,926 3,867 3,882 3,911 3,891 -20 72,264 255,510
Mar-23 3,753 3,765 3,721 3,752 3,754 3,740 -14 7,952 18,098
May-23 3,680 3,680 3,634 3,646 3,754 3,653 -101 3,566 2,016
Palm Oil
Turnover: 801,625 lots, or 92.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-22 13,500 14,270 13,500 14,134 13,504 13,902 398 2,334 2,786
Jul-22 12,476 12,690 12,336 12,662 12,480 12,502 22 21,688 57,826
Aug-22 11,878 11,984 11,716 11,948 11,882 11,858 -24 7,756 36,337
Sep-22 11,520 11,594 11,324 11,552 11,512 11,464 -48 732,017 323,475
Oct-22 11,330 11,384 11,126 11,322 11,304 11,256 -48 9,851 22,574
Nov-22 11,194 11,248 10,956 11,186 11,168 11,120 -48 7,996 8,296
Dec-22 10,874 11,024 10,874 10,984 11,074 10,960 -114 8 136
Jan-23 10,928 10,990 10,788 10,920 10,940 10,892 -48 19,574 53,178
Feb-23 10,796 10,812 10,796 10,812 10,800 10,808 8 7 59
Mar-23 10,748 10,770 10,634 10,760 10,756 10,728 -28 32 149
Apr-23 10,710 10,716 10,570 10,716 10,680 10,668 -12 40 96
May-23 10,654 10,654 10,456 10,612 10,680 10,580 -100 322 239
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 556,745 lots, or 62.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-22 11,518 11,562 11,406 11,542 11,552 11,482 -70 16,741 87,017
Aug-22 11,388 11,422 11,274 11,406 11,420 11,352 -68 13,987 61,362
Sep-22 11,298 11,316 11,160 11,296 11,306 11,240 -66 469,883 400,289
Nov-22 11,132 11,154 11,016 11,116 11,146 11,082 -64 14,660 27,473
Dec-22 11,038 11,060 10,936 11,018 11,050 10,992 -58 8,280 8,140
Jan-23 10,932 10,974 10,850 10,938 10,968 10,904 -64 22,694 36,147
Mar-23 10,812 10,850 10,730 10,816 10,844 10,782 -62 10,374 4,237
May-23 10,788 10,788 10,602 10,678 10,844 10,646 -198 126 52
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322