About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher in response to the USDA crop reports that showed deteriorating crop conditions for US Wheat and on news that India had announced an export ban for Wheat. India has exempted Egypt from the ban and will honor previous commitments. It had been expected to offer up to 12 million tons to the world market. Ukraine exports were reduced due to the war. USDA reduced production estimates for Hard Red Winter Wheat in the US due to the hot and dry conditions in the western Great Plains and reduced Spring Wheat production estimates due to delayed planting. Spring Wheat planting remains much behind normal and overall Spring Wheat planting could be reduced because of the delayed planting pace. The weather forecast looks improved for the planting of the US and Canadian Spring Wheat crops. Trends are up in all three markets on the daily charts.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers in western areas. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 1342 July. Support is at 1247, 1222, and 1198 July, with resistance at 1284, 1296, and 1308 July. Trends in Kansas City are up with no objectives. Support is at 1352, 1325, and 12599 July, with resistance at 1380, 1392, and 1404 July. Trends in Minneapolis are up with no objectives. Support is at 1356, 1340, and 1336 July, and resistance is at 1413, 1420, and 1432 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher for much of the day, but collapsed to close sharply lower in the last 15 minutes of trade. It is hot and dry in India and it is possible that Rice production will be affected. Rice is a highly political grain for India and the government goes out of its way to subsidize the crop production and support Rice farmers. It usually allows for export prices to fall and often sells it Rice internationally at below costs of production. Prices could rally significantly in the world market if India can’t export. USDA issued a price positive WASDE report that highlighted less production, demand, and ending stocks for next year from the current year. Production was estimated at 182.7 million cwt and ending stocks were estimated at 33.2 million cwt. Trends for both have been down for at least the last two years.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1703, 1675, and 1661 July and resistance is at 1751, 1814, and 1828 July.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – May 18
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 15.10 9.56 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 14.90 10.17 0.00
Brokens 9.58 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:
U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 51.88/18.02 6.96
Medium Grain/Short Grain 62.00/9.70 7.46

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed lower yesterday as USDA showed much improved planting progress and on forecasts for better planting weather this week. Oats closed higher. Warm temperatures are being reported in the Midwest this week and ideas are that planting progress is about to increase rapidly. Many think the top end of the yield has been taken off the Corn crop due to the delayed planting. It already thinks there is reduced planted area because of the March planning intentions reports from USDA and the bad planting weather. The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter. China has a Covid outbreak again and has closed some cities and some ports in response. The moves are harsh but China has a no tolerance policy about the pandemic. The closings of cities and ports will hurt the economy as people can’t make or spend money and hurt imports as there will be fewer places to unload cargoes. However, China has been a very big buyer of US Corn over the last couple of weeks as they need the feed and Ukraine cannot currently offer any supply.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 832 and 867 July. Support is at 797, 778, and 769 July, and resistance is at 814, 824, and 828 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 668 and 729 July Support is at 627, 612, and 592 July, and resistance is at 659, 672, and 685 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher along with Soybean Oil, but Soybean Meal closed lower in consolidation trading yesterday. The market rallied in sympathy with the grains and especially the Wheat.. There are still fears of a cooling economy and forecasts for much improved planting weather this week, but the delayed planting pace helped support the market. Soybean Oil remains well supported as demand is holding strong amid very tight supplies of vegetable oils here and around the world. There are still worries about Chinese demand because of Covid lockdowns there. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America. They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs. Most of the current buying is for next year. Ideas are that the Chinese economy could slow down due to the Covid lockdowns there and cause the country to purchase less Soybeans in the world market.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 229,200 tons
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1645, 1640, and 1629 July, and resistance is at 1679, 1708, and 1734 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 419.00 and 432.00 July. Support is at 406.00, 395.00, and 393.00 July, and resistance is at 419.00 429.00, and 436.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 8190, 8120, and 7910 July, with resistance at 8460, 8680, and 8800 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower yesterday but the most active August contract traded in a range. Ideas are that demand for Malaysian Palm Oil is weaker and that monthly stocks are increasing. Futures traded higher this morning on the uncertain prospects for the export ban in Indonesia to continue. Indonesian farmers are now protesting lower prices but the government is holding firm. The Indonesian ban on Palm Oil products imports is now in effect and a ban on Crude Palm Oil exports is in effect, according to the Indonesian government. The industry estimates the ban could last through the month of May, but the government has made no such prediction. Hopes for better demand from India keep the market supported. A new Covid outbreak is reported in China and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports. The economy could slow down and affect demand. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was lower yesterday in consolidation trading. Trends turned up on the daily charts on Friday. It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting but better planting weather is coming now. StatsCan said that Canadian farmers intend to reduce planted area for Canola this year and use the area to plant Wheat instead. There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well. Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 1248.00 July. Support is at 1182.00, 1167.00, and 1154.00 July, with resistance at 1219.00, 1228.00, and 1240.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 6060, 6020, and 5840 August, with resistance at 6340, 6510, and 6530 August.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May 105 July 205 July 120 July 138 July
June 105 July 205 July 120 July 138 July
July 103 July 195 July 80 July 135 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 17
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 1196.00 0.00 July 2022 up 15.00
Basis: Thunder Bay 1225.00 35.00 July 2022 dn 16.00
Basis: Vancouver 1245.00 55.00 July 2022 dn 16.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 18
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Jun 1647.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1492.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1425.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1650.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1495.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1427.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 1565.00 — Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 1370.00 — Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 6750.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 436.00 — Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.39)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 18
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 89,591 lots, or 5.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 6,248 6,279 6,234 6,246 6,260 6,214 -46 44 0
Jul-22 6,282 6,309 6,246 6,264 6,274 6,271 -3 68,384 125,673
Sep-22 6,170 6,184 6,124 6,141 6,149 6,149 0 11,464 38,837
Nov-22 5,902 5,948 5,879 5,892 5,901 5,897 -4 9,219 24,464
Jan-23 5,881 5,902 5,846 5,861 5,865 5,875 10 465 3,973
Mar-23 5,858 5,858 5,829 5,829 5,832 5,844 12 15 413
Corn
Turnover: 398,447 lots, or 11.96 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 2,914 2,914 2,914 2,914 2,908 2,914 6 100 0
Jul-22 2,958 2,969 2,952 2,959 2,958 2,961 3 60,297 348,638
Sep-22 3,012 3,020 3,001 3,007 3,008 3,011 3 297,511 1,274,932
Nov-22 2,986 2,992 2,974 2,981 2,981 2,985 4 12,412 76,406
Jan-23 2,995 3,005 2,987 2,991 2,993 2,997 4 17,749 100,051
Mar-23 3,000 3,007 2,994 3,000 2,996 3,000 4 10,378 33,891
Soymeal
Turnover: 821,029 lots, or 33.85 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 – – – 4,140 4,209 4,140 -69 0 0
Jul-22 4,240 4,262 4,223 4,230 4,238 4,243 5 53,392 203,929
Aug-22 4,237 4,270 4,232 4,240 4,234 4,248 14 31,558 157,231
Sep-22 4,142 4,160 4,127 4,133 4,128 4,143 15 612,240 1,370,126
Nov-22 4,048 4,074 4,039 4,046 4,043 4,054 11 25,592 86,322
Dec-22 3,986 4,003 3,972 3,979 3,976 3,988 12 7,092 31,654
Jan-23 3,899 3,931 3,893 3,902 3,889 3,911 22 84,659 252,013
Mar-23 3,743 3,773 3,735 3,748 3,734 3,754 20 6,496 17,859
Palm Oil
Turnover: 716,892 lots, or 82.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 16,360 16,390 15,400 15,516 14,900 15,270 370 140 0
Jun-22 13,368 13,650 13,316 13,522 13,394 13,504 110 1,051 2,834
Jul-22 12,442 12,560 12,412 12,476 12,460 12,480 20 15,592 57,938
Aug-22 11,868 11,970 11,812 11,876 11,884 11,882 -2 5,517 35,837
Sep-22 11,480 11,610 11,424 11,514 11,494 11,512 18 656,747 321,254
Oct-22 11,310 11,406 11,234 11,306 11,312 11,304 -8 9,380 22,315
Nov-22 11,162 11,258 11,074 11,170 11,194 11,168 -26 8,439 7,571
Dec-22 11,098 11,108 11,030 11,032 11,138 11,074 -64 11 134
Jan-23 10,930 11,030 10,856 10,928 10,976 10,940 -36 19,984 52,639
Feb-23 10,800 10,800 10,800 10,800 10,740 10,800 60 3 63
Mar-23 10,686 10,800 10,686 10,752 10,788 10,756 -32 19 137
Apr-23 10,634 10,704 10,634 10,698 10,622 10,680 58 9 91
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 460,544 lots, or 51.97 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 11,478 11,478 11,478 11,478 11,580 11,438 -142 11 0
Jul-22 11,548 11,602 11,502 11,518 11,566 11,552 -14 14,447 88,390
Aug-22 11,418 11,476 11,366 11,388 11,420 11,420 0 10,322 60,789
Sep-22 11,312 11,356 11,256 11,276 11,312 11,306 -6 384,561 406,593
Nov-22 11,152 11,202 11,102 11,122 11,144 11,146 2 12,357 26,914
Dec-22 11,040 11,144 11,012 11,036 11,058 11,050 -8 4,892 7,796
Jan-23 10,960 11,038 10,906 10,932 10,960 10,968 8 29,031 35,596
Mar-23 10,824 10,900 10,800 10,814 10,836 10,844 8 4,923 3,535
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322