Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was much higher as hot and dry conditions in the western Great Plains continue. It is also hot and dry in India and crops grown there are thought to be under stress as well. There are ideas that production potential is slipping further due to the hot and dry weather in West Texas and the rest of the western Great Plains. USDA estimated production for the coming year at 16.50 million bales and this was below trade expectations. Demand was also cut, but ending stocks were estimated at just 2.9 million bales for the new crop year, down from 3.4 million in the current crop year. USDA said that planted area was less than had been previously forecast due to the hot and dry weather in the western Great Plains. The trade is worried about Chinese demand due to the Covid lockdowns there. India will now try to increase imports as world and US Cotton is now lower cost to importers as import taxes have been removed, but prices for imported Cotton are still very high. Production of the next US crop is at risk now due to dry weather in general for the western Great Plains. China could be trimming imports due to Covid and is also closing down a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation. China has been buying even with the port closures and domestic difficulties caused by renewed Covid lockdowns.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 145.65 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,100 bales, from 1,100 bales yesterday. USDA said that Cotton is now 37% planted, from 24% last week, 36% last year, and 37% average.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 153.20, 159.80, and 161.80 July. Support is at 146.60, 145.00, and 142.10 July, with resistance of 152.90, 155.90 and 156.80 July.
General Comments: FCOJ was higher yesterday and trends turned mixed on the daily charts. A feeze is possible in center south parts f Brazil and Oranges production could be affected later this week. USDA increased its Florida and US production estimates by about 2 million boxes to 40.2 million boxes. USDA had been cutting production in previous estimates. The market is short Oranges and short juice production but is also worried about domestic demand destruction as pills are becoming cheaper again. The greening disease has taken its toll on the US crop and the previous Brazil crop was down significantly due to drought. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good, but it is drier now and some tree stress could develop soon. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get isolated showers and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 170.00, 166.00, and 163.00 July, with resistance at 179.00, 182.00, and 187.00 July.
General Comments: New York closed sharply higher on some forecasts for a Brazil freeze. London closed higher in sympathy with New York. It could freeze in at least Parana and crops could be damaged as much below normal temperatures are forecast for later this week. The export pace from Cecafe was 2.8 million bags, down 24% from the previous year. There are fears of a cooling economy and less demand due to actions last week from the Fed, but strong earnings reports from coffee shop chains imply that demand is holding together well. The Ukraine war is also supporting ideas of less demand from Europe generally and Ukraine and Russia. Demand from China is thought to be less due to the war against Covid. Deliveries from Vietnam and Brazil Robusta are noted to be decreasing as the harvest is now complete, but selling was active in previous months. Indonesian offers are higher now after a slow start to the selling campaign due to plentiful stocks inside the country. Good growing conditions for the next crop in Brazil are still around but some regions could be turning too dry again. Colombia Coffee Federation said last week that production could be between 12.0 and 12.5 million bags this year after heavy rains fell during the crop development.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.114 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 189.84 ct/lb. Brazil will get isolated to scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see isolated showers. ICE NY said that 65 delivery notices were tendered against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 543 contracts. GCA stocks are now 5.906 million bags, from 5.820 million last month.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 229.00, 232.00, and 240.00 July. Support is at 220.00, 217.00, and 209.00 July, and resistance is at 230.00, 233.00 and 237.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2040, 2010, and 1990 July, and resistance is at 2090, 2130, and 2140 July.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday with freezing temperatures possible later this week in Brazil. Sugarcane production could easily be affected in central-south areas.. The price action implies renewed demand for White Sugar has appeared in the world market. The US Dollar was strong and has been strong to drive up the price in local currencies of the importers and exporters, but the sell side knows futures have fallen and are holding. Increased offers from India and Thailand are expected if the market rallies. Pakistan is also increasing its offers due to good crops there. All are primarily exporters of White Sugar while Brazil exports more Raw Sugar. Thailand expects to produce about 10 million tons of sugar this year, up 33% from last year. India said it could export more than 9.0 million tons of Sugar. Brazil could also have better Sugarcane production this year. Brazil mills are crushing for Ethanol at this time and not Sugar. The overall crush pace is down significantly due to mills being closed. The crush was down 19.7% last month at 23.8 million tons of cane and the production mix is now 35.4% Sugar and 64.6% Ethanol.
Overnight News: Brazil will get isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures. USDA said that Sugarbeets are now 37% planted, from 26% last week, 98% last year, and 86% average.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1970, 1980, and 2030 July. Support is at 1920, 1890, and 1870 July and resistance is at 1990, 2010, and 2040 July. Trends in London are up with objectives of 551.00 August. Support is at 536.00, 532.00, and 521.00 August and resistance is at 554.00, 560.00, and 566.00 August.
General Comments: New York and London were higher. The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa. Current reports from Ivory Coast indicate that the weather is a good mix of sun and rain so a good midcrop production is expected. The weather is good in Southeast Asia. Ghana arrivals have been below year ago levels, but Ivory Coast arrivals are ahead of last year. Ivory Coast arrivals are now 1.770 million tons, down 3.2% from last year.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.055 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2650 July. Support is at 2460, 2410, and 2370 July, with resistance at 2570, 2620, and 2650 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1830, 1880, and 1920 July. Support is at 1790, 1770, and 1750 July, with resistance at 1820, 1840, and 1850 July.