About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – May 17
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
CORN May May 17, 2022 2 May 12, 2022

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – May 16
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING MAY 12, 2022
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 05/12/2022 05/05/2022 05/13/2021 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 10,156 33,143
CORN 1,036,549 1,477,246 1,994,436 39,102,991 47,330,954
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 324 509
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 600 6,514
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 199,012 270,492 59,949 5,776,425 5,805,427
SOYBEANS 784,187 504,441 310,408 48,498,581 56,240,493
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 2,260 96
WHEAT 348,048 262,919 660,298 19,376,283 24,412,996
Total 2,367,796 2,515,098 3,025,091 112,767,620 133,830,132
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

Crop Progress
Date 15-May 8-May 2021 Avg
Cotton Planted 37 24 36 37
Corn Planted 49 22 78 67
Corn Emerged 14 5 36 32
Soybeans Planted 30 12 58 39
Soybeans Emerged 9 3 19 12
Sorghum Planted 26 22 26 30
Rice Planted 80 66 85 79
Rice Emerged 53 37 61 60
Peanuts Planted 47 25 38 45
Sugarbeets Planted 37 26 98 86
Sunflowers Planted 5 1 5
Oats Planted 67 55 91 82
Oats Emerged 45 36 71 62
Winter Wheat Headed 49 33 51 53
Spring Wheat Planted 39 27 83 67
Spring Wheat Emerged 16 9 44 30
Barley Planted 61 48 81 73
Barley Emerged 32 22 47 38

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Winter Wheat This Week 24 17 32 24 3
Winter Wheat Last Week 21 18 32 26 3
Winter Wheat Last Year 6 13 33 41 7

Pastures and Ranges This Week 25 24 29 20 2
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 26 26 26 20 2
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 19 24 32 22 1

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were sharply higher to limit up on news that India had announced an export ban for Wheat. It had been expected to offer up to 12 million tons but now will only honor deals already closed. Further support came on poor overall crop conditions for the HRW crops in the western Great Plains and HRS in the Northern Plains and into the Canadian Prairies and in response to the USDA production and WASDE estimates that show an increasingly tight situation here and around the world. The world ending stocks estimates were especially bullish as USDA forecast record trade volumes for world Wheat. Ukraine exports were reduced due to the war. USDA reduced production estimates for Hard Red Winter Wheat in the US due to the hot and dry conditions in the western Great Plains and reduced Spring Wheat production estimates due to delayed planting. Spring Wheat planting remains much behind normal and overall Spring Wheat planting could be reduced because of the delayed planting pace. The weather forecast looks improved for the planting of the US and Canadian Spring Wheat crops. Trends are up in all three markets on the daily charts.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers in western areas. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 1342 July. Support is at 1222, 1198, and 1143 July, with resistance at 1248, 1260, and 1272 July. Trends in Kansas City are up with no objectives. Support is at 1325, 1292, and 1259 July, with resistance at 1356, 1368, and 1380 July. Trends in Minneapolis are up with no objectives. Support is at 1356, 1336, and 1280 July, and resistance is at 1396, 1408, and 1420 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher and closed a new highs for the move on the daily and weekly charts. It is hot and dry in India and it is possible that Rice production will be affected. Rice is a highly political grain for India and the government goes out of its way to subsidize the crop production and support Rice farmers. It usually allows for export prices to fall and often sells it Rice internationally at below costs of production. Prices could rally significantly in the world market if India can’t export. USDA issued a price positive WASDE report that highlighted less production, demand, and ending stocks for next year from the current year. Production was estimated at 182.7 million cwt and ending stocks were estimated at 33.2 million cwt. Trends for both have been down for at least the last two years. Funds and other speculators have been the best sellers lately on demand concerns and as planting and growing conditions improved in the US. There still was slow progress in Rice planting and emergence in the US, but improved weather this week could allow producers to start to catch up. The slow progress and wet and cold conditions in Arkansas have many looking for a lower planted area and all planted area is expected to be less, anyway, due to high input costs against the price of Rice.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1865 July. Support is at 1717, 1703, and 1675 July and resistance is at 1764, 1776, and 1788 July.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed higher yesterday in sympathy with Wheat and on slow planting progress and despite forecasts for better planting weather this week. Oats closed higher. USDA cited the slow planting progress in cutting yield estimates to 177 bushels per acre from the trend line yield of 181.5 bushels per acre. The yield estimate is within the thinking of the trade, but USDA has started there with the May estimate and the timing was very unusual. USDA has always made those adjustments later in the crop year and has started with the trend line yield in previous years. Very warm temperatures are being reported in the Midwest this week and ideas are that planting progress is about to increase rapidly. Many think the top end of the yield has been taken off the Corn crop due to the delayed planting. It already thinks there is reduced planted area because of the March planning intentions reports from USDA and the bad planting weather. The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter. China has a Covid outbreak again and has closed some cities and some ports in response. The moves are harsh but China has a no tolerance policy about the pandemic. The closings of cities and ports will hurt the economy as people can’t make or spend money and hurt imports as there will be fewer places to unload cargoes. However, China has been a very big buyer of US Corn over the last couple of weeks as they need the feed and Ukraine cannot currently offer any supply.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 832 and 867 July. Support is at 797, 778, and 769 July, and resistance is at 8014, 824, and 828 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 668 and 729 July Support is at 627, 612, and 592 July, and resistance is at 659, 672, and 685 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher along with Soybean Meal, but Soybean Oil closed lower again yesterday. The market rallied in sympathy with the grains and especially the Wheat.. There are still fears of a cooling economy and forecasts for much improved planting weather this week, but the delayed planting pace helped support the market. Soybean Oil remains well supported as demand is holding strong amid very tight supplies of vegetable oils here and around the world. Almost summer like conditions are being reported this week after weeks of cold and wet weather for the Midwest so planting progress should increase. There are still many wet fields so the planting progress for Corn and Soybeans might not be as strong as the trade expects when USDA reports again next Monday. There are still worries about Chinese demand because of Covid lockdowns there. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America. They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs. Most of the current buying is for next year. Ideas are that the Chinese economy could slow down due to the Covid lockdowns there and cause the country to purchase less Soybeans in the world market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1640, 1629, and 1622 July, and resistance is at 1679, 1708, and 1734 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 419.00 and 432.00 July. Support is at 406.00, 395.00, and 393.00 July, and resistance is at 418.00 429.00, and 436.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 8120, 7910, and 7800 July, with resistance at 8460, 8680, and 8800 July.

Alerts History
• 16-May-2022 11:00:08 AM – U.S. APRIL SOYOIL STOCKS 1.814 BILLION LBS – NOPA
• 16-May-2022 11:00:08 AM – U.S. APRIL SOYBEAN CRUSH 169.788 MILLION BUSHELS – NOPA
NOPA April soybean crush below expectations at 169.788 mln bushels – Reuters News
16-May-2022 11:00:13 AM
To view this story on Refinitiv Workspace, click here
• NOTE: For a table detailing NOPA data by region, see Eikon page 0#SEED-US-STAT
By Karl Plume
CHICAGO, May 16 (Reuters) – The U.S. soybean crush dropped by more than expected in April, while the end-of-month soyoil supply thinned to the lowest in seven months, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Monday.
NOPA members, which account for around 95% of soybeans processed in the United States, crushed 169.788 million bushels of soybeans last month, down 6.6% from the 181.759 million bushels crushed in March but up 5.9% from the April 2021 crush of 160.310 million bushels. It was the second-largest April crush on record for NOPA members, behind only 2020.
The crush had been expected to drop to 172.370 million bushels, according to the average of estimates from 10 analysts. Estimates ranged from 169.448 million to 177.000 million bushels, with a median of 171.825 million bushels. (Full Story)
The processing pace slowed in April despite strong margins and adequate crushing supplies as several plants were idled for seasonal maintenance, analysts said.
Soyoil supplies among NOPA members as of April 30 fell to 1.814 billion lbs, the smallest end-of-month stocks since September. The stocks were down 4.9% from 1.908 billion lbs at the end of March but up 6.6% from the end of April 2021, when NOPA members held stocks totaling 1.702 billion lbs.
Soyoil supplies at the end of April were expected to have tightened to 1.839 billion pounds, according to the average of estimates gathered from seven analysts. Estimates ranged from 1.648 billion to 1.950 billion, with a median of 1.860 billion.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week but the most active August contract traded in a range. Ideas are that demand for Malaysian Palm Oil is weaker and that monthly stocks are increasing. The Indonesian ban on Palm Oil products imports is now in effect and a ban on Crude Palm Oil exports is coming, according to the Indonesian government. The industry estimates the ban could last through the month of May, but the government has made no such prediction. Hopes for better demand from India keep the market supported. A new Covid outbreak is reported in China and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports. The economy could slow down and affect demand. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was higher yesterday and made new highs for the move. Trends turned up on the daily charts on Friday. It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting but better planting weather is coming now. StatsCan said that Canadian farmers intend to reduce planted area for Canola this year and use the area to plant Wheat instead. There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well. Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 1248.00 July. Support is at 1182.00, 1167.00, and 1154.00 July, with resistance at 1215.00, 1228.00, and 1240.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 6360, 6020, and 5840 August, with resistance at 6510, 6530, and 6870 August.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May 105 July 205 July 120 July 138 July
June 105 July 205 July 120 July 138 July
July 103 July 195 July 80 July 135 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 16
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 1181.00 0.00 July 2022 up 29.00
Basis: Thunder Bay 1241.00 45.00 July 2022 up 15.00
Basis: Vancouver 1261.00 65.00 July 2022 up 15.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 17
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
May 1687.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 1632.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1482.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1417.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1690.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 1635.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1485.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1420.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1570.00 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1380.00 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 6750.00 -150.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 447.00 -09.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.3)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 17
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 100,367 lots, or 6.23 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 6,269 6,270 6,247 6,268 6,271 6,260 -11 110 47
Jul-22 6,296 6,302 6,259 6,277 6,303 6,274 -29 71,492 130,047
Sep-22 6,200 6,200 6,132 6,152 6,188 6,149 -39 16,490 37,735
Nov-22 5,930 5,930 5,882 5,899 5,926 5,901 -25 11,878 23,486
Jan-23 5,881 5,891 5,850 5,864 5,889 5,865 -24 378 3,658
Mar-23 5,844 5,846 5,821 5,846 5,862 5,832 -30 19 411
Corn
Turnover: 604,480 lots, or 18.13 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 2,905 2,914 2,905 2,914 2,900 2,908 8 183 73
Jul-22 2,946 2,971 2,941 2,958 2,943 2,958 15 90,449 352,022
Sep-22 2,998 3,022 2,991 3,010 2,992 3,008 16 470,401 1,291,698
Nov-22 2,968 2,995 2,966 2,984 2,962 2,981 19 12,706 75,902
Jan-23 2,978 3,006 2,976 2,994 2,975 2,993 18 20,573 96,903
Mar-23 2,975 3,009 2,975 2,997 2,977 2,996 19 10,168 32,768
Soymeal
Turnover: 736,292 lots, or 30.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 – – – 4,209 4,209 4,209 0 0 0
Jul-22 4,235 4,253 4,222 4,240 4,213 4,238 25 47,432 209,633
Aug-22 4,233 4,247 4,217 4,236 4,206 4,234 28 27,971 154,648
Sep-22 4,141 4,143 4,110 4,129 4,106 4,128 22 550,046 1,338,930
Nov-22 4,051 4,059 4,027 4,036 4,010 4,043 33 30,781 85,293
Dec-22 4,003 4,003 3,960 3,970 3,961 3,976 15 7,308 31,104
Jan-23 3,905 3,905 3,873 3,892 3,879 3,889 10 65,249 247,512
Mar-23 3,757 3,760 3,720 3,736 3,733 3,734 1 7,505 17,442
Palm Oil
Turnover: 876,300 lots, or 10.08 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 14,900 14,900 14,900 14,900 14,994 14,900 -94 16 1,409
Jun-22 13,582 13,666 13,236 13,274 13,576 13,394 -182 1,960 3,042
Jul-22 12,630 12,688 12,250 12,358 12,598 12,460 -138 17,411 59,241
Aug-22 12,040 12,106 11,670 11,784 12,014 11,884 -130 6,984 35,676
Sep-22 11,640 11,736 11,280 11,416 11,630 11,494 -136 799,712 321,070
Oct-22 11,458 11,524 11,100 11,216 11,436 11,312 -124 11,305 21,395
Nov-22 11,290 11,374 10,970 11,090 11,274 11,194 -80 9,477 7,062
Dec-22 11,178 11,186 11,040 11,050 11,150 11,138 -12 9 132
Jan-23 11,080 11,150 10,784 10,880 11,012 10,976 -36 29,385 52,421
Feb-23 10,862 10,862 10,712 10,712 10,884 10,740 -144 17 65
Mar-23 10,860 10,860 10,666 10,722 10,858 10,788 -70 16 138
Apr-23 10,704 10,704 10,550 10,684 10,748 10,622 -126 8 91
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 582,839 lots, or 65.81 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 – – – 11,580 11,580 11,580 0 0 1,911
Jul-22 11,674 11,686 11,446 11,534 11,614 11,566 -48 19,979 89,375
Aug-22 11,516 11,530 11,320 11,400 11,472 11,420 -52 15,214 60,428
Sep-22 11,372 11,414 11,206 11,286 11,352 11,312 -40 484,616 403,730
Nov-22 11,220 11,236 11,056 11,108 11,182 11,144 -38 17,333 26,899
Dec-22 11,136 11,148 10,974 11,016 11,076 11,058 -18 6,391 7,490
Jan-23 11,030 11,062 10,880 10,928 10,984 10,960 -24 31,465 38,969
Mar-23 10,930 10,930 10,760 10,806 10,866 10,836 -30 7,841 3,395
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

ere.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322