About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – May 16
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL May May 17, 2022 2 May 11, 2022
SOYBEAN OIL May May 17, 2022 13 Apr 28, 2022
CORN May May 17, 2022 60 May 12, 2022
KC HRW WHEAT May May 17, 2022 12 May 13, 2022
WHEAT May May 17, 2022 1 May 13, 2022

DJ Wheat Futures Surge After India Confirms Export Ban — Market Talk
0922 ET – Wheat futures on the CBOT are up 4.9% in pre-market trading this morning, after India confirmed its ban on wheat exports over the weekend. The ban comes after estimates from the country showed a sizable decrease in its new crop due to drought conditions. Traders say that the new ban puts an additional strain on the world export market, considering that India was expected to be an alternative to Russia and Ukraine amid the ongoing war there. “India’s banning of future wheat exports will dominate price discovery on Monday,” says AgResource in a note. Meanwhile, corn futures are up 2.1% and soybeans rise 0.9%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com; @kirkmaltais)

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were sharply higher last week on poor overall crop conditions for the HRW crops in the western Great Plains and HRS in the Northern Plains and into the Canadian Prairies and in response to the USDA production and WASDE estimates. The world ending stocks estimates were especially bullish as USDA forecast record trade volumes for world Wheat. Ukraine exports were reduced due to the war. USDA reduced production estimates for Hard Red Winter Wheat in the US due to the hot and dry conditions in the western Great Plains and reduced Spring Wheat production estimates due to delayed planting. Spring Wheat planting remains much behind normal and overall Spring Wheat planting could be reduced because of the delayed planting pace. The weather forecast looks improved for the planting of the US and Canadian Spring Wheat crops as it should be warmer but there was a big storm in the Dakotas last week that blew topsoil from the region. Trends are turning up in all three markets on the daily charts. Russia have been offering into the world market at relatively cheap prices but the Wheat is moving from the Black Sea although a lot of ships are scared to go on those waters. Ukraine can rail Wheat to Romania for shipment and has been doing this, but there have been a lot of news stories about the Russian theft of Ukrainian grain. There are forecasts for some light precipitation to fall in HRW growing areas of the western Great Plains this week and more moderate weather is forecast for the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies. The northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies should get showers. The western US Great Plains remained too dry and crop conditions were very poor.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers in western areas. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 1234 and 1342 July. Support is at 1143, 1107, and 1083 July, with resistance at 1264, 1276, and 1288 July. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 1329 July. Support is at 1259, 1200, and 1179 July, with resistance at 1296, 12308, and 1380 July. Trends in Minneapolis are up with no objectives. Support is at 1280, 1226, and 1203 July, and resistance is at 1336, 1348, and 1360 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 10, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 424,000
: Positions :
: 44,776 80,479 117,307 47,543 161,845 181,067 27,315 390,693 386,947: 33,307 37,053
: Changes from: May 3, 2022 (Change in open interest: -1,804) :
: 1,300 -937 -1,991 467 2,910 -4,448 -2,785 -4,672 -2,804: 2,868 1,000
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.6 19.0 27.7 11.2 38.2 42.7 6.4 92.1 91.3: 7.9 8.7
: Total Traders: 355 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 95 80 114 79 115 51 23 287 275:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 10, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 197,589
: Positions :
: 29,567 20,094 38,640 34,362 111,287 70,525 5,964 173,095 175,986: 24,494 21,603
: Changes from: May 3, 2022 (Change in open interest: 3,789) :
: -527 -1,867 3,792 880 1,066 -1,798 -23 2,347 2,968: 1,442 822
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.0 10.2 19.6 17.4 56.3 35.7 3.0 87.6 89.1: 12.4 10.9
: Total Traders: 231 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 49 40 58 66 88 36 15 183 174:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 10, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 77,191 :
: Positions :
: 29,320 59,669 1,864 1,127 352 19,274 1,017 760 6,762 496 3,201 :
: Changes from: May 3, 2022 :
: 1,389 1,950 58 70 -10 -116 193 60 527 -157 862 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 38.0 77.3 2.4 1.5 0.5 25.0 1.3 1.0 8.8 0.6 4.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 108 :
: 44 44 5 . 4 22 4 5 10 5 9 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher last week and closed a new highs for the move on the daily and weekly charts. USDA issued a price positive WASDE report that highlighted less production, demand, and ending stocks for next year from the current year. Production was estimated at 182.7 million cwt and ending stocks were estimated at 33.2 million cwt. Trends for both have been down for at least the last two years. Funds and other speculators have been the best sellers lately on demand concerns and as planting and growing conditions improved in the US. There still was slow progress in Rice planting and emergence in the US, but improved weather this week could allow producers to start to catch up. The slow progress and wet and cold conditions in Arkansas have many looking for a lower planted area and all planted area is expected to be less, anyway, due to high input costs against the price of Rice.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1791 and 1865 July. Support is at 1717, 1703, and 1675 July and resistance is at 1764, 1776, and 1788 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 10, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 11,657 :
: Positions :
: 5,074 8,449 207 0 0 2,071 570 0 477 871 967 :
: Changes from: May 3, 2022 :
: -138 -267 4 0 0 138 2 -1 12 -62 -7 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 43.5 72.5 1.8 0.0 0.0 17.8 4.9 0.0 4.1 7.5 8.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 59 :
: 20 17 . 0 0 15 . 0 6 7 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher last week on slow planting progress and despite forecasts for better planting weather this week. Oats closed a little lower. USDA cited the slow planting progress in cutting yield estimates to 177 bushels per acre from the trend line yield of 181.5 bushels per acre. The yield estimate is within the thinking of the trade, but USDA has started there with the May estimate and the timing was very unusual. USDA has always made those adjustments later in the crop year and has started with the trend line yield in previous years. Very warm temperatures are being reported in the Midwest this week and ideas are that planting progress is about to increase rapidly. Planting progress will be faster, but fields still need to dry out so it could still be a couple of days before many producers can work the fields. The crop planting progress is very slow now due to the cold and wet Spring seen here and the market started to worry about yield loss soon. Many think the top end of the yield has been taken off the Corn crop due to the delayed planting. It already thinks there is reduced planted area because of the March planning intentions reports from USDA and the bad planting weather. The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter. China has a Covid outbreak again and has closed some cities and some ports in response. The moves are harsh but China has a no tolerance policy about the pandemic. The closings of cities and ports will hurt the economy as people can’t make or spend money and hurt imports as there will be fewer places to unload cargoes. However, China has been a very big buyer of US Corn over the last couple of weeks as they need the feed and Ukraine cannot currently offer any supply. President Biden has said he will permit the use of higher ethanol blends in gasoline this Summer in an effort to control inflation and high fuel prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 769, 753, and 739 July, and resistance is at 801, 814, and 824 July. Trends in Oats are mixed Support is at 592, 586, and 565 July, and resistance is at 627, 647, and 659 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 10, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,168,588
: Positions :
: 325,677 76,345 565,891 487,722 1,172,765 588,518 106,755 1,967,808 1,921,756: 200,780 246,833
: Changes from: May 3, 2022 (Change in open interest: -4,310) :
: -21,586 5,912 30,678 -2,121 -36,689 -2,489 -2,067 4,482 -2,166: -8,792 -2,144
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.0 3.5 26.1 22.5 54.1 27.1 4.9 90.7 88.6: 9.3 11.4
: Total Traders: 913 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 233 105 214 365 468 55 31 733 747:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher along with Soybean Meal, but Soybean Oil closed slightly lower last week. The market rallied on stronger demand ideas and even with the neutral to bearish USDA data released on Thursday. USDA estimated high production at 4.640 billion bushels, but demand ideas were strong and the ending stocks estimate was 310 million bushels, from 235 million in the current crop year. South American production estimates were also increased.. There are still fears of a cooling economy and forecasts for much improved planting weather this week, but the delayed planting pace helped support the market yesterday. Soybean Oil remains well supported as demand is holding strong amid very tight supplies of vegetable oils here and around the world. Almost summer like conditions are being reported this week after weeks of cold and wet weather for the Midwest so planting progress should increase. There are still many wet fields so the planting progress for Corn and Soybeans might not be as strong as the trade expects when USDA reports again next Monday. There are still worries about Chinese demand because of Covid lockdowns there. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America. They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs. Most of the current buying is for next year. Ideas are that the Chinese economy could slow down due to the Covid lockdowns there and cause the country to purchase less Soybeans in the world market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1629, 1605, and 1578 July, and resistance is at 1657, 1679, and 1705 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 406.00, 395.00, and 393.00 July, and resistance is at 418.00 429.00, and 436.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 8120, 7910, and 7800 July, with resistance at 8400, 8460, and 8680 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 10, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 895,823
: Positions :
: 115,958 50,091 212,483 269,602 496,634 238,727 49,084 836,771 808,293: 59,052 87,530
: Changes from: May 3, 2022 (Change in open interest: 7,150) :
: -11,884 2,850 8,742 16,575 -5,704 -4,037 1,330 9,395 7,219: -2,245 -69
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.9 5.6 23.7 30.1 55.4 26.6 5.5 93.4 90.2: 6.6 9.8
: Total Traders: 614 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 153 106 170 197 268 55 28 479 509:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 10, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 437,582
: Positions :
: 81,518 17,267 80,652 105,908 302,383 130,318 16,521 398,396 416,823: 39,186 20,759
: Changes from: May 3, 2022 (Change in open interest: 12,397) :
: 2,018 -846 5,987 4,180 10,355 -1,093 -358 11,091 15,138: 1,306 -2,741
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.6 3.9 18.4 24.2 69.1 29.8 3.8 91.0 95.3: 9.0 4.7
: Total Traders: 276 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 86 32 65 75 96 42 22 225 196:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 10, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 409,858
: Positions :
: 58,569 25,452 66,185 107,000 283,530 127,606 10,830 359,359 385,996: 50,499 23,862
: Changes from: May 3, 2022 (Change in open interest: -423) :
: -10,732 5,837 5,415 6,316 -12,778 -2,328 3,696 -1,329 2,170: 906 -2,593
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.3 6.2 16.1 26.1 69.2 31.1 2.6 87.7 94.2: 12.3 5.8
: Total Traders: 269 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 62 45 60 92 100 39 12 227 186:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week but the most active August contract traded in a range. Ideas are that demand for Malaysian Palm Oil is weaker and that monthly stocks are increasing. The Indonesian ban on Palm Oil products imports is now in effect and a ban on Crude Palm Oil exports is coming, according to the Indonesian government. The industry estimates the ban could last through the month of May, but the government has made no such prediction. Hopes for better demand from India keep the market supported. A new Covid outbreak is reported in China and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports. The economy could slow down and affect demand. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was higher last week and made new highs for the move. Trends turned up on the daily charts on Friday. It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting. StatsCan said that Canadian farmers intend to reduce planted area for Canola this year and use the area to plant Wheat instead. There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well. Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 1202.00 and 1248.00 July. Support is at 1167.00, 1154.00, and 1129.00 July, with resistance at 1201.00, 1215.00, and 1228.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 6360, 6020, and 5840 August, with resistance at 6510, 6530, and 6870 August.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 10, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 152,262 :
: Positions :
: 81,262 117,501 1,880 3,130 666 48,452 5,219 7,687 2,185 8,734 7,519 :
: Changes from: May 3, 2022 :
: 614 -4,416 -1 -107 29 -2,923 232 280 -442 1,120 -1,252 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 53.4 77.2 1.2 2.1 0.4 31.8 3.4 5.0 1.4 5.7 4.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 300 :
: 45 68 . 6 . 52 16 16 48 89 43 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May
105 July
205 July
120 July
138 July

June
105 July
205 July
120 July
138 July

July
103 July
195 July
80 July
135 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 13
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 1152.00 0.00 July 2022 dn 0.30
Basis: Thunder Bay 1226.00 45.00 July 2022 up 29.00
Basis: Vancouver 1246.00 65.00 July 2022 up 29.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 16
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 124,850 lots, or 7.79 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 6,268 6,277 6,268 6,277 6,240 6,271 31 122 176
Jul-22 6,298 6,330 6,282 6,296 6,277 6,303 26 88,162 131,939
Sep-22 6,160 6,214 6,160 6,180 6,134 6,188 54 22,415 36,407
Nov-22 5,910 5,950 5,902 5,926 5,894 5,926 32 13,031 20,999
Jan-23 5,865 5,911 5,864 5,890 5,856 5,889 33 1,039 3,598
Mar-23 5,848 5,867 5,835 5,867 5,821 5,862 41 81 405
Corn
Turnover: 513,352 lots, or 15.31 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 2,899 2,907 2,896 2,896 2,889 2,900 11 168 5,752
Jul-22 2,943 2,953 2,931 2,950 2,938 2,943 5 74,369 345,571
Sep-22 2,993 3,002 2,978 3,000 2,990 2,992 2 389,512 1,253,691
Nov-22 2,955 2,974 2,948 2,968 2,954 2,962 8 16,458 74,710
Jan-23 2,967 2,988 2,957 2,982 2,964 2,975 11 22,999 96,850
Mar-23 2,969 2,996 2,965 2,984 2,966 2,977 11 9,846 31,577
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,061,147 lots, or 43.40 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 – – – 4,209 4,056 4,209 153 0 0
Jul-22 4,150 4,259 4,146 4,255 4,129 4,213 84 72,063 214,199
Aug-22 4,166 4,249 4,140 4,239 4,114 4,206 92 38,343 151,505
Sep-22 4,040 4,146 4,040 4,141 4,017 4,106 89 804,323 1,326,221
Nov-22 3,952 4,070 3,952 4,070 3,917 4,010 93 37,208 82,612
Dec-22 3,904 4,025 3,887 4,025 3,867 3,961 94 8,456 30,770
Jan-23 3,828 3,911 3,821 3,905 3,793 3,879 86 92,117 252,712
Mar-23 3,702 3,761 3,683 3,761 3,683 3,733 50 8,637 17,348
Palm Oil
Turnover: 799,295 lots, or 92.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 15,000 15,100 14,900 15,100 14,730 14,994 264 20 1,425
Jun-22 13,618 13,750 13,494 13,580 13,622 13,576 -46 2,147 3,955
Jul-22 12,580 12,764 12,480 12,610 12,628 12,598 -30 16,229 61,410
Aug-22 12,044 12,206 11,892 12,028 12,028 12,014 -14 7,027 35,826
Sep-22 11,672 11,818 11,508 11,640 11,606 11,630 24 716,590 309,304
Oct-22 11,480 11,594 11,296 11,448 11,412 11,436 24 12,699 20,709
Nov-22 11,316 11,432 11,112 11,300 11,250 11,274 24 8,850 6,783
Dec-22 11,076 11,270 11,040 11,164 11,142 11,150 8 26 132
Jan-23 10,998 11,162 10,906 11,076 10,992 11,012 20 35,655 51,000
Feb-23 10,762 11,000 10,762 10,806 10,808 10,884 76 10 71
Mar-23 10,810 11,136 10,710 10,844 10,764 10,858 94 29 129
Apr-23 10,718 10,890 10,670 10,752 10,720 10,748 28 13 89
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 601,801 lots, or 68.20 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 11,582 11,582 11,580 11,580 11,244 11,580 336 50 1,916
Jul-22 11,512 11,714 11,488 11,660 11,438 11,614 176 19,723 89,311
Aug-22 11,442 11,582 11,358 11,496 11,364 11,472 108 19,376 59,419
Sep-22 11,326 11,472 11,246 11,372 11,222 11,352 130 498,057 413,407
Nov-22 11,158 11,292 11,078 11,200 11,080 11,182 102 21,554 27,531
Dec-22 10,978 11,180 10,978 11,112 10,978 11,076 98 5,504 7,529
Jan-23 10,930 11,094 10,886 11,014 10,864 10,984 120 25,839 38,460
Mar-23 10,670 10,970 10,670 10,900 10,760 10,866 106 11,698 3,424
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322