About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
WASHINGTON–The following are key numbers from USDA’s crop report and
how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a
Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. Corn, Soybean Production (million bushels)
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range
Corn 14,460 14,779 14,414-15,115
Soybean 4,640 4,604 4,435-4,653
***
U.S. Stockpiles (million bushels)
2021-22 Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA April
Corn 1,440 1,404 1,310-1,440 1,440
Soybeans 235 222 175-260 260
Wheat 655 681 650-713 678
2022-23 Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA April
Corn 1,360 1,305 988-1,627 na
Soybeans 310 319 200-488 na
Wheat 619 655 560-725 na
***
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2021-22 Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA April
Corn 309.4 303.7 298.5-308.0 305.5
Soybeans 85.2 89.0 86.5-90.5 89.6
Wheat 279.7 278.3 275.0-282.5 278.4
2022-23 Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA April
Corn 305.1 295.6 278.0-307.7 na
Soybeans 99.6 98.0 89.4-107.8 na
Wheat 267.0 271.6 261.0-286.8 na
***
2022-23 Wheat Production (million bushels)
Thursday’s Average Range
Estimate
All Wheat 1,729 1,789 1,635-1,915
Winter Wheat 1,174 1,245 1,146-1,359
Hard Red Winter 590 683 568-779
Soft Red Winter 364 365 340-393
White Winter 230 199 166-237
***
2021-22 Brazil Production (million metric tons)
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA April
Corn 116.0 113.9 110.0-116.5 116.0
Soybeans 125.0 124.5 123.0-125.4 125.0
2021-22 Argentina Production (million metric tons)
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA April
Corn 53.0 52.1 50.0-53.0 53.0
Soybeans 42.0 42.8 41.0-44.0 43.5

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – May 12
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soyoil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound) bales.
Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
======U.S.====== ================WORLD=======================
Ending Stocks Exports Production
22/23 21/22 20/21: 22/23 21/22 20/21: 22/23 21/22 20/21
Soybeans 310.0 235.0 257.0:170.01 155.57 164.51:394.69 349.37 368.12
Brazil na na na: 88.50 82.75 81.65:149.00 125.00 139.50
Argentina na na na: 4.70 2.75 5.20: 51.00 42.00 46.20
China na na na: 0.10 0.10 0.07: 17.50 16.40 19.60
Soyoil 1,706 1,976 2,131: 12.75 12.25 12.57: 61.43 59.11 59.17
Corn 1,360 1,440 1,235:182.70 197.79 182.97: 1,181 1,216 1,129
China na na na: 0.02 0.02 0.00:271.00 272.55 260.67
Argentina na na na: 41.00 39.00 40.94: 55.00 53.00 52.00
S.Africa na na na: 3.70 3.20 3.80: 17.30 16.30 16.95
Cotton(a) 2.90 3.40 3.15: 47.56 45.54 48.51:121.06 118.45 111.48
All Wheat 619 655 845:204.89 199.89 203.34:774.83 779.29 775.72
China na na na: 0.90 0.85 0.76:135.00 136.95 134.25
European
Union na na na: 36.00 31.00 29.74:136.50 138.42 126.69
Canada na na na: 24.00 15.50 26.43: 33.00 21.65 35.18
Argentina na na na: 14.00 15.50 11.53: 20.00 22.15 17.64
Australia na na na: 24.00 27.50 23.85: 30.00 36.30 33.30
Russia na na na: 39.00 33.00 39.10: 80.00 75.16 85.35
Ukraine na na na: 10.00 19.00 16.85: 21.50 33.01 25.42
Sorghum 24.0 33.0 20.0: na na na: na na na
Barley 80.0 57.0 71.0: na na na: na na na
Oats 34.0 28.0 38.0: na na na: na na na
Rice 33.2 37.5 43.7: 54.20 52.64 50.93:514.63 512.86 509.31

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – May 13
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL May May 16, 2022 12 May 11, 2022
ROUGH RICE May May 16, 2022 48 May 12, 2022
KC HRW WHEAT May May 16, 2022 13 May 12, 2022
OATS May May 16, 2022 1 May 02, 2022
WHEAT May May 16, 2022 27 May 09, 2022

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were sharply higher yesterday on poor overall crop conditions for the HRW crops in the western Great Plains and in response to the USDA production and WASDE estimates. The world ending stocks estimates were especially bullish as USDA forecast record trade volumes for world Wheat. Ukraine exports were reduced due to the war. USDA reduced production ewtimates for Hard Red Winter Wheat in the US due to the hot and dry conditions in the western Great Plains and reduced Spring Wheat production estimates due to delayed planting. Spring Wheat planting remains much behind normal and overall Spring Wheat planting could be reduced because of the delayed planting pace. The weather forecast looks improved for the planting of the US and Canadian Spring Wheat crops as it should be warmer. Trends are turning up in all three markets on the daily charts. Russia have been offering into the world market at relatively cheap prices but the Wheat is moving from the Black Sea although a lot of ships are scared to go on those waters. Ukraine can rail Wheat to Romania for shipment and has been doing this, but there have been a lot of news stories about the Russian theft of Ukrainian grain. There are forecasts for some light precipitation to fall in HRW growing areas of the western Great Plains this week and more moderate weather is forecast for the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies. The northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies should get showers. The western US Great Plains remained too dry and crop conditions were very poor.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers in western areas. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 1234 and 1342 July. Support is at 1143, 1107, and 1083 July, with resistance at 1190, 1224, and 1278 July. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 1329 July. Support is at 1259, 1200, and 1179 July, with resistance at 1272, 1284, and 1296 July. Trends in Minneapolis are up with no objectives. Support is at 1249, 1226, and 1203 July, and resistance is at 1326, 1338, and 1350 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower again for much of the day for the third day in a row yesterday, but then rebounded to close higher, also for the third day in a row. USDA issued a price positive WASDE report that highlighted less production, demand, and ending stocks for next year from the current year. Production was estimated at 182.7 million cwt and ending stocks were estimated at 33.2 million cwt. Trends for both have been down for at least the last two years. Funds and other speculators have been the best sellers lately on demand concerns and as planting and growing conditions improved in the US. There still was slow progress in Rice planting and emergence in the US, but improved weather this week could allow producers to start to catch up. The slow progress and wet and cold conditions in Arkansas have many looking for a lower planted area and all planted area is expected to be less, anyway, due to high input costs against the price of Rice.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1703, 1675, and 1661 July and resistance is at 1735, 1749, and 1772 July.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed higher again yesterday on slow planting progress and despite forecasts for better planting weather this week. USDA cited the slow planting progress in cutting yield estimates to 177 bushels per acre from the trend line yield of 181.5 bushels per acre. The yield estimate is within the thinking of the trade, but USDA has started there with the May estimate and the timing was very unusual. USDA has always made those adjustments later in the crop year and has started with the trend line yield in previous years. Some position squaring was noted before the release of the WASDE reports later today. Very warm temperatures are being reported in the Midwest this week and ideas are that planting progress is about to increase rapidly. Planting progress will be faster, but fields still need to dry out so it could still be a couple of days before many producers can work the fields. The crop planting progress is very slow now due to the cold and wet Spring seen here and the market started to worry about yield loss soon. Many think the top end of the yield has been taken off the Corn crop due to the delayed planting. It already thinks there is reduced planted area because of the March planning intentions reports from USDA and the bad planting weather. The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter. China has a Covid outbreak again and has closed some cities and some ports in response. The moves are harsh but China has a no tolerance policy about the pandemic. The closings of cities and ports will hurt the economy as people can’t make or spend money and hurt imports as there will be fewer places to unload cargoes. However, China has been a very big buyer of US Corn over the last couple of weeks as they need the feed and Ukraine cannot currently offer any supply. President Biden has said he will permit the use of higher ethanol blends in gasoline this Summer in an effort to control inflation and high fuel prices.
Overnight News: China bought 612,000 tons of US Corn
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 779, 769, and 753 July, and resistance is at 801, 814, and 824 July. Trends in Oats are mixed Support is at 586, 565, and 542 July, and resistance is at 647, 659, and 672 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher yesterday but Soybean Oil was lower and Soybean Meal closed mixed. USDA estimated high production at 4.640 billion bushels, but demand ideas were strong and the ending stocks estimate was 310 million bushels, from 235 million in the current crop year. South American production estimates were also increased.. There are still fears of a cooling economy and forecasts for much improved planting weather this week, but the delayed planting pace helped support the market yesterday. Soybean Oil remains well supported as demand is holding strong amid very tight supplies of vegetable oils here and around the world. Almost summer like conditions are being reported this week after weeks of cold and wet weather for the Midwest so planting progress should increase. There are still many wet fields so the planting progress for Corn and Soybeans might not be as strong as the trade expects when USDA reports again next Monday. There are still worries about Chinese demand because of Covid lockdowns there. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America. They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs. Most of the current buying is for next year. Ideas are that the Chinese economy could slow down due to the Covid lockdowns there and cause the country to purchase less Soybeans in the world market.
Overnight News: China bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1523 July. Support is at 1578, 1569, and 1561 July, and resistance is at 1657, 1679, and 1705 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 384.00 and 335.00 July. Support is at 393.00, 386.00, and 381.00 July, and resistance is at 408.00 418.00, and 429.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 8120, 7910, and 7800 July, with resistance at 8350, 8400, and 8460 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today on strong outside markets. The Indonesian ban on Palm Oil products imports is now in effect and a ban on Crude Palm Oil exports is coming, according to the Indonesian government. The industry estimates the ban could last through the month of May, but the government has made no such prediction. Hopes for better demand from India keep the market supported. A new Covid outbreak is reported in China and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports. The economy could slow down and affect demand. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was a little lower yesterday as USDA raised world production estimates for oilseeds and oils. It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting but warmer temperatures are reported this week. There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well. Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 1129.00, 1122.00, and 1108.00 July, with resistance at 1168.00, 1182.00, and 1201.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 6260, 6180, and 6150 July, with resistance at 6750, 6850, and 7230 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May
115May
210 May 120 May
140 May

June
108 July
210 July
120 July
140 July

July
1024 July
200 July
80 July
135 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 11
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 1135.50 0.00 July 2022 dn 21.40
Basis: Thunder Bay 1197.30 45.00 July 2022 up 16.80
Basis: Vancouver 1217.30 65.00 July 2022 up 16.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 13
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
May 1677.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 1627.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1477.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1412.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1680.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 1630.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1480.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1415.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1610.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1420.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 6900.00 -100.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 456.00 -04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.396)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 13
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 146,840 lots, or 9.13 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 6,240 6,240 6,240 6,240 6,105 6,240 135 40 68
Jul-22 6,246 6,312 6,234 6,275 6,208 6,277 69 108,467 129,175
Sep-22 6,089 6,170 6,070 6,149 6,062 6,134 72 23,539 33,365
Nov-22 5,847 5,918 5,847 5,900 5,824 5,894 70 13,094 19,630
Jan-23 5,812 5,882 5,810 5,860 5,792 5,856 64 1,655 3,625
Mar-23 5,778 5,844 5,778 5,840 5,752 5,821 69 45 471
Corn
Turnover: 555,571 lots, or 16.55 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 2,889 2,890 2,889 2,890 2,883 2,889 6 107 12,091
Jul-22 2,923 2,956 2,921 2,945 2,930 2,938 8 91,550 344,601
Sep-22 2,972 3,005 2,967 2,993 2,974 2,990 16 409,622 1,236,371
Nov-22 2,941 2,967 2,940 2,958 2,944 2,954 10 14,958 73,790
Jan-23 2,950 2,975 2,947 2,968 2,953 2,964 11 24,565 97,576
Mar-23 2,952 2,981 2,951 2,971 2,953 2,966 13 14,769 30,905
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,523,932 lots, or 6.09 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 4,056 4,056 4,056 4,056 3,998 4,056 58 1 884
Jul-22 4,045 4,180 4,032 4,157 4,045 4,129 84 86,935 215,287
Aug-22 4,006 4,169 3,998 4,154 4,015 4,114 99 55,218 149,055
Sep-22 3,933 4,077 3,925 4,054 3,942 4,017 75 1,142,813 1,295,288
Nov-22 3,849 3,981 3,841 3,964 3,862 3,917 55 39,525 80,435
Dec-22 3,794 3,926 3,787 3,917 3,805 3,867 62 8,879 30,662
Jan-23 3,727 3,845 3,717 3,828 3,735 3,793 58 179,158 251,837
Mar-23 3,627 3,715 3,618 3,698 3,634 3,683 49 11,403 17,412
Palm Oil
Turnover: 808,705 lots, or 93.86 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 14,500 15,494 14,500 14,880 14,850 14,730 -120 9 1,445
Jun-22 13,450 13,832 13,378 13,710 13,560 13,622 62 2,835 4,598
Jul-22 12,474 12,826 12,324 12,652 12,602 12,628 26 15,724 62,224
Aug-22 11,776 12,200 11,724 12,072 11,994 12,028 34 5,834 36,037
Sep-22 11,380 11,802 11,360 11,672 11,568 11,606 38 732,838 312,578
Oct-22 11,172 11,584 11,172 11,456 11,358 11,412 54 13,015 20,502
Nov-22 11,080 11,400 11,052 11,286 11,176 11,250 74 6,446 6,225
Dec-22 11,142 11,142 11,142 11,142 11,040 11,142 102 1 132
Jan-23 10,840 11,140 10,800 11,018 10,910 10,992 82 31,961 49,611
Feb-23 10,784 10,952 10,784 10,952 10,808 10,808 0 7 69
Mar-23 10,680 10,834 10,646 10,816 10,738 10,764 26 27 125
Apr-23 10,582 10,808 10,582 10,808 10,648 10,720 72 8 89
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 626,130 lots, or 70.14 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 – – – 11,244 11,244 11,244 0 0 1,916
Jul-22 11,238 11,568 11,204 11,560 11,296 11,438 142 19,973 90,151
Aug-22 11,116 11,454 11,116 11,436 11,220 11,364 144 12,163 59,096
Sep-22 11,014 11,342 11,012 11,326 11,124 11,222 98 531,876 409,755
Nov-22 10,880 11,164 10,880 11,152 10,984 11,080 96 15,386 27,946
Dec-22 10,824 11,056 10,824 11,050 10,900 10,978 78 5,183 7,502
Jan-23 10,730 10,960 10,696 10,936 10,810 10,864 54 31,761 36,503
Mar-23 10,630 10,840 10,618 10,820 10,688 10,760 72 9,788 3,103
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322