About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher on dry conditions in the western Great Plains but futures were held in check due to weaker demand ideas. The trade is worried about Chinese demand due to the Covid lockdowns there. India will now try to increase imports as world and US Cotton is now lower cost to importers as import taxes have been removed, but prices for imported Cotton are still very high. Production of the next US crop is at risk now due to dry weather in general for the western Great Plains. China could be trimming imports due to Covid and is also closing down a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation. China has been buying even with the port closures and domestic difficulties caused by renewed Covid lockdowns.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 137.94 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,101 bales, from 1,101 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 14160, 134.50, and 130.00 July. Support is at 140.70, 137.60, and 136.20 July, with resistance of 148.70, 152.90 and 155.90 July.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little higher and held some support on the daily charts. It was a narrow rang and light volume day. The market is short Oranges and short juice production but is also worried about domestic demand destruction as pills are becoming cheaper again. The greening disease has taken its toll on the US crop and the previous Brazil crop was down significantly due to drought. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good, but it is drier now and some tree stress could develop soon. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get isolated showers and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 169.00, 164.00, and 163.00 July, with resistance at 179.00, 182.00, and 187.00 July.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were both lower yesterday on what appeared to be selling from speculators. The Brazilian Real was higher yesterday and so was the US Dollar. There are fears of a cooling economy and less demand due to actions last week from the Fed. The Ukraine war is also supporting ideas of less demand from Europe generally and Ukraine and Russia. Arabica offers have started to increase as the Brazilian Real has turned a little weaker, and there are still some Robusta offers hitting London. Ideas are that demand could get hurt as inflation and central bank actions hurt buying power from consumers. Demand from China is thought to be less due to the war against Covid. Deliveries from Vietnam and Brazil Robusta are noted to be decreasing as the harvest is now complete, but selling was active in previous months. Vietnam said it has exported 739,046 tons of Coffee this year, up 26.2% from last year. Indonesian offers are higher now after a slow start to the selling campaign due to plentiful stocks inside the country. Good growing conditions for the next crop in Brazil are still around but some regions could be turning too dry again.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.105 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 183.47 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see isolated showers. ICE NY said that 0 delivery notices were tendered against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 478 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 196.00 July. Support is at 204.00, 201.00, and 198.00 July, and resistance is at 210.00, 213.00 and 215.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1980 and 1900 July. Support is at 2010, 1990, and 1960 July, and resistance is at 2060, 2080, and 2130 July.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower again yesterday and moved once again with world petroleum prices and also with US Dollar strength. The US Dollar was strong and has been strong to drive up the price in local currencies of the importers and exporters, but the sell side knows futures have fallen and are holding. Increased offers from India and Thailand are expected if the market rallies. Pakistan is also increasing its offers due to good crops there. Thailand expects to produce about 10 million tons of sugar this year, up 33% from last year. India said it could export more than 9.0 million tons of Sugar. Brazil could also have better Sugarcane production this year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1850, 1810, and 1790 July and resistance is at 1920, 1940, and 1950 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 515.00, 508.00, and 499.00 August and resistance is at 532.00, 534.00, and 542.00 August.

DJ Brazil Sugar Crush Down 19.7% in 2H April After Fewer Mills Opened
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian sugar mills in the country’s center-south region crushed less cane in the second half of April compared with a year earlier as fewer mills were functioning this year, according to industry group Unica.
Center-south mills crushed 23.8 million metric tons of cane in the period, a decrease of 19.7% from the same period a year earlier, Unica said Tuesday. They produced 934,000 tons of sugar, down 38.7%, and made 1.1 billion liters of ethanol, a decline of 15.8%.
The production mix for the second half of April was 37.2% sugar to 62.8% ethanol, compared with 44.5% sugar and 55.5% ethanol in the same period a year ago.
In the period from April 1 through April 30, mills in the region crushed 29.1 million tons of cane, down 29.1% from the same period a year earlier. Sugar production fell 50.6% to 1.1 million tons, and ethanol output declined 26.9% to 1.5 billion liters.
The production mix for the season through April 30 was 35.4% sugar to 64.6% ethanol, compared with 42.7% sugar and 57.3% ethanol in the same period a year earlier.
The number of mills in operation reached 180 by the end of April, compared with 207 mills in the same period a year earlier, according to Unica.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were lower yesterday on new selling by speculators and commercials. The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa. Current reports from Ivory Coast indicate that the weather is a good mix of sun and rain so a good midcrop production is expected. The weather is good in Southeast Asia. Ghana arrivals have been below year ago levels, but Ivory Coast arrivals are ahead of last year. Ivory Coast arrivals are now 1.770 million tons, down 3.2% from last year.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.081 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 273 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2360 July. Support is at 2420, 2410, and 2370 July, with resistance at 2480, 2510, and 2570 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1730, 1710, and 1680 July. Support is at 1760, 1740, and 1720 July, with resistance at 1800, 1820, and 1840 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322