About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Wheat Production Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2022-23 U.S. wheat production, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated production forecasts at noon on Thursday.
2022-23 WHEAT PRODUCTION
Average Range USDA 2021-22
All Wheat 1,789 1,635-1,915 1,646
Winter Wheat 1,245 1,146-1,359 1,277
Hard Red Winter 683 568-779 749
Soft Red Winter 365 340-393 361
White Winter 199 166-237 167
All Wheat Winter Wheat Hard-Red Soft-Red White
AgriSompo North America 1,905
Allendale 1,872 1,359 779 358 222
DC Analysis 1,803 1,197 660 365 172
Doane 1,775 1,175 600 350 225
EDF Man 1,767 1,300 700 380 220
Futures International 1,915 1,323 700 393 230
Grain Cycles 1,819 1,287 759 340 188
Linn 1,810 1,220 685 375 170
Sid Love Consulting 1,782 1,237 650 350 237
Midland Research 1,744 1,194 629 375 190
Northstar 1,700 1,200 655 370 175
Prime-Ag 1,683
RJ O’Brien 1,221 641 358 222
Risk Mgmt Commodities 1,635 1,225 705 350 170
StoneX 1,672 1,146 568 375 203
US Commodities 1,860 1,260 748 360 166
Western Milling 1,848 1,274 683 365 226
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,817 1,300 762 370 169

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2022 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Thursday.
U.S. Corn, Soybean Production (million bushels)
Average Range USDA 2021
Corn Production 14,779 14,414-15,115 15,115
Soybean Production 4,604 4,435-4,653 4,435
Corn Soybean
Production Production
AgriSompo North America 14,715 4,565
AgriSource 14,700 4,650
Allendale 14,824 4,641
DC Analysis 14,788 4,640
Doane 14,600 4,635
EDF Man 14,752 4,635
Futures International 14,825 4,640
Grain Cycles 14,842 4,635
Linn 14,575 4,591
Sid Love Consulting 14,414 4,500
Midland Research 14,680 4,630
Northstar 14,660 4,544
Prime-Ag 14,833 4,590
Risk Mgmt Commodities 15,115 4,435
StoneX 14,867 4,632
US Commodities 15,077 4,589
Vantage RM 14,806 4,642
Western Milling 14,905 4,653
Zaner Ag Hedge 14,815 4,638

DJ U.S. May Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2021-22 and 2022-23, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
U.S. 2021-22 Stockpiles (millions)
Average Range USDA April
Corn 1,404 1,310-1,440 1,440
Soybeans 222 175-260 260
Wheat 681 650-713 678
U.S. 2022-23 Stockpiles (millions)
Average Range USDA April
Corn 1,305 988-1,627 N/A
Soybeans 319 200-488 N/A
Wheat 655 560-725 N/A
2021-22 2022-23
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Agrisompo North America 1,365 200 674 1,180 200 689
AgriSource 1,440 220 665 1,225 300
Allendale 1,430 225 698 1,419 283 720
DC Analysis 1,390 210 693 1,225 255 610
Doane 1,365 220 650 1,250 350 560
EDF Man 1,440 240 713 1,320 325 691
Futures International 1,390 225 663 1,450 350 652
Grain Cycles 1,440 250 688 1,422 413 683
Linn 1,310 185 688 1,400 315 725
Sid Love Consulting 1,440 260 678
Midland Research 1,340 210 700 1,155 250 615
Northstar 1,430 220 700
Prime-Ag 1,440 240 678 1,300 400 600
RJ O’Brien 1,434 217 668 1,165 275 601
Risk Mgmt Commodities 1,400 230 688 1,450 325 635
StoneX 1,423 196 678 988 488 570
US Commodities 1,415 175 688 1,627 214 721
Vantage RM 1,415 245 665 1,280 380 682
Western Milling 1,386 235 664 1,111 243 697
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,390 235 688 1,524 375 691

DJ May World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2021-22 and 2022-23, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2021-22
Average Range USDA April
Corn 303.7 298.5-308.0 305.5
Soybeans 89.0 86.5-90.5 89.6
Wheat 278.3 275.0-282.5 278.4
2022-23
Average Range USDA April
Corn 295.6 278.0-307.7 N/A
Soybeans 98.0 89.4-107.8 N/A
Wheat 271.6 261.0-286.8 N/A
2021-22 2022-23
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSompo North America 299.0 89.4 280.5 278.0 90.5 261.0
Allendale 305.1 88.1 278.9 298.6 94.4 271.1
EDF Man 305.0 90.0 278.0 292.0 101.0 279.0
Futures International 304.0 89.0 275.0 288.0 105.0 271.0
Grain Cycles 304.0 89.5 278.0 285.0 101.0 271.0
Linn 298.5 86.5 279.0 300.0 101.5 273.0
Midland Research 305.0 88.0 282.5 287.0 98.0 268.0
Northstar 301.0 88.5 275.0 307.0 94.0 262.0
Prime-Ag 305.0 89.0 279.0 300.0 95.0 275.0
Risk Mgmt Commodities 303.5 90.5 276.4
StoneX 308.0 90.1 280.4 300.2 107.8 263.0
US Commodities 304.5 89.0 278.0 304.0 89.4 278.0
Western Milling 306.0 89.0 279.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 303.1 88.9 277.0 307.7 98.4 286.8

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – May 9
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING MAY 5, 2022
— METRIC TONS —
—————————————————————————
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 05/05/2022 04/28/2022 05/06/2021 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 73 0 10,156 33,143
CORN 1,392,685 1,696,181 1,716,299 37,981,881 45,336,518
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 324 509
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 600 6,514
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 270,492 217,881 125,111 5,577,413 5,745,478
SOYBEANS 503,414 604,711 277,090 47,713,343 55,930,085
SUNFLOWER 0 288 96 2,260 96
WHEAT 236,847 392,443 563,598 19,000,508 23,752,698
Total 2,403,438 2,911,577 2,682,194 110,286,485 130,805,041
—————————————————————————
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.

Crop Progress
Date 8-May 1-May 2021 Avg
Cotton Planted 24 16 24 24
Corn Planted 22 14 64 50
Corn Emerged 5 3 10 15
Soybeans Planted 8 3 22 13
Soybeans Emerged 3 9 4
Sorghum Planted 22 20 22 26
Rice Planted 66 45 73 67
Rice Emerged 37 24 50 49
Peanuts Planted 25 10 21 26
Sugarbeets Planted 26 18 95 69
Oats Planted 55 45 83 71
Oats Emerged 36 31 58 50
Winter Wheat Headed 33 23 36 40
Spring Wheat Planted 19 13 46 28
Spring Wheat Emerged 9 5 27 15
Barley Planted 48 36 68 55
Barley Emerged 22 10 30 22

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Winter Wheat This Week 21 18 32 26 3
Winter Wheat Last Week 22 21 30 24 3
Winter Wheat Last Year 5 13 33 42 7

Pastures and Ranges This Week 26 26 26 20 2
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 29 27 26 17 1
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 2024 32 22 2 2

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – May 10
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL May May 11, 2022 50 Apr 22, 2022
ROUGH RICE May May 11, 2022 16 May 09, 2022
KC HRW WHEAT May May 11, 2022 2 May 04, 2022
WHEAT May May 11, 2022 72 May 03, 2022

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday as the weather forecast looks improved for the planting of the US and Canadian Spring Wheat crops. There was nothing really new for the Winter Wheat markets so they fell in line with the weakness in Corn and Soybeans. Trends are sideways in all three markets on the weekly charts but are turning up in Minneapolis on the daily charts. Russia have been offering into the world market at relatively cheap prices but the Wheat is moving from the Black Sea although a lot of ships are scared to go on those waters. Ukraine can rail Wheat to Romania for shipment and has been doing this. Hard Red Winter Wheat was a little lower on forecasts for some light to moderate precipitation to fall in HRW growing areas of the western Great Plains this week and more moderate weather is forecast for the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies. The western US Great Plains remained too dry and crop conditions were very poor.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers in western areas. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 1089, 1069, and 1047 July, with resistance at 1135, 1143, and 1190 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 1153, 10133, and 1115 July, with resistance at 1189, 1202, and 1259 July. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 1263 July. Support is at 1203, 1180, and 1154 July, and resistance is at 1235, 1242, and 1254 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower again yesterday on demand concerns and as planting and growing conditions improved in the US. There still was slow progress in Rice planting and emergence in the US, but improved weather this week could allow producers to catch up. The slow progress and wet and cold conditions in Arkansas have many looking for a lower planted area and all planted area is expected to be less, anyway, due to high input costs against the price of Rice.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1675, 1658, and 1645 July and resistance is at 1718, 1735, and 1749 July.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower yesterday on forecasts for better planting weather this week. Very warm temperatures are forecast for the Midwest this week and ideas are that planting progress is about to increase. The crop planting progress is very slow now due to the cold and wet Spring seen here and the market started to worry about yield loss soon. It already thinks there is reduced planted area because of the March planning intentions reports from USDA. The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter. China has a Covid outbreak again and has closed some cities and some ports in response. The moves are harsh but China has a no tolerance policy about the pandemic. The closings of cities and ports will hurt the economy as people can’t make or spend money and hurt imports as there will be fewer places to unload cargoes. However, China has been a very big buyer of US Corn over the last couple of weeks as they need the feed and Ukraine cannot currently offer any supply. President Biden has said he will permit the use of higher ethanol blends in gasoline this Summer in an effort to control inflation and high fuel prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objective of 767, 743, and 739 July. Support is at 753, 739, and 729 July, and resistance is at 781, 791, and 814 July. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 573 July Support is at 586, 6565, and 6542 July, and resistance is at 622, 647, and 659 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower yesterday on fears of a cooling economy on forecasts for much improved planting weather this week. Almost summer like conditions are forecast for this week after weeks of cold and wet weather for the Midwest. There were ideas that the world could be headed to a recession. Traders are worried about demand moving forward as the US Dollar is very strong and China is locking down due to Covid. There are still worries about Chinese demand because of Covid lockdowns there. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America and bought Soybeans again yesterday. They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs. Most of the current buying is for next year. Ideas are that the Chinese economy could slow down due to the Covid lockdowns there and cause the country to purchase less Soybeans in the world market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1600 and 1583 July. Support is at 1569, 1561, and 1546 July, and resistance is at 1622, 1657, and 1679 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 384.00 and 335.00 July. Support is at 402.00, 393.00, and 386.00 July, and resistance is at 418.00 429.00, and 436.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 7800, 7700, and 7360 July, with resistance at 8120, 84320, and 8400 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today as the market anticipated increased ending stocks for April from MPOB. The Indonesian ban on Palm Oil products imports is now in effect and a ban on Crude Palm Oil exports is coming, according to the Indonesian government. The industry estimates the ban could last through the month of May, but the government has made no such prediction. Hopes for better demand from India keep the market supported. A new Covid outbreak is reported in China and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports. The economy could slow down and affect demand. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was lower yesterday. It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting. There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well. Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 1122.00, 1108.00, and 1093.00 July, with resistance at 1168.00, 1182.00, and 1201.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 6180, 6150, and 6020 July, with resistance at 7750, 6850, and 7230 July.

DJ Malaysia May 1-10 Palm Oil Exports Rose 38.9% on Month to 376,573 Tons, AmSpec Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports for May 1-10 are estimated to have risen 38.9% from the previous month to 376,573 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Tuesday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
May 1-10 April 1-10
RBD Palm Olein 146,430 97,988
RBD Palm Oil 52,500 52,315
RBD Palm Stearin 25,184 18,762
Crude Palm Oil 44,784 61,285
Total* 376,573 271,201
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Sostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May
115May
210 May 120 May
140 May

June
108 July
210 July
120 July
140 July

July
1024 July
200 July
80 July
135 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 6
WINNIPEG, May 6 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 1,161.10 0.00 Jul 2022 up 16.50
Track Thunder Bay 1,202.60 45.00 Jul 2022 dn 3.50
Track Vancouver 1,222.60 65.00 Jul 2022 dn 3.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 10
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
May 1707.50 -35.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 1617.50 -45.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1482.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1417.50 -20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1710.00 -35.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 1620.00 -45.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1485.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1420.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1615.00 -45.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1435.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 7050.00 -100.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 470.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.38)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 10
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 127,060 lots, or 7.78 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 – – – 6,158 6,158 6,158 0 0 352
Jul-22 6,188 6,208 6,130 6,204 6,181 6,172 -9 100,409 110,421
Sep-22 6,039 6,067 6,000 6,061 6,039 6,035 -4 15,855 31,055
Nov-22 5,824 5,839 5,783 5,827 5,817 5,810 -7 9,948 16,806
Jan-23 5,760 5,794 5,748 5,790 5,773 5,767 -6 695 2,847
Mar-23 5,725 5,766 5,725 5,763 5,752 5,751 -1 153 571
Corn
Turnover: 778,578 lots, or 23.07 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 2,904 2,905 2,858 2,882 2,895 2,876 -19 713 20,321
Jul-22 2,940 2,954 2,907 2,917 2,944 2,928 -16 105,912 340,155
Sep-22 2,988 3,000 2,947 2,964 2,990 2,971 -19 617,769 1,184,257
Nov-22 2,949 2,959 2,917 2,936 2,952 2,941 -11 15,253 70,313
Jan-23 2,954 2,967 2,923 2,948 2,959 2,945 -14 25,680 96,826
Mar-23 2,950 2,965 2,925 2,952 2,962 2,947 -15 13,251 28,314
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,126,387 lots, or 43.73 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 4,442 4,442 3,940 4,039 4,113 4,252 139 198 1,263
Jul-22 3,978 4,033 3,940 4,018 4,024 3,988 -36 72,759 215,191
Aug-22 3,950 3,999 3,915 3,986 3,990 3,962 -28 17,361 145,437
Sep-22 3,890 3,939 3,854 3,927 3,928 3,901 -27 863,213 1,202,134
Nov-22 3,829 3,871 3,782 3,847 3,870 3,833 -37 28,974 79,164
Dec-22 3,772 3,812 3,741 3,798 3,810 3,780 -30 18,572 29,244
Jan-23 3,705 3,748 3,672 3,733 3,728 3,716 -12 111,173 257,099
Mar-23 3,598 3,637 3,579 3,633 3,620 3,610 -10 14,137 17,883
Palm Oil
Turnover: 889,854 lots, or 10.24 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 14,300 14,684 14,108 14,430 14,544 14,318 -226 122 1,497
Jun-22 13,218 13,400 13,008 13,220 13,280 13,226 -54 12,000 12,827
Jul-22 12,538 12,678 12,304 12,480 12,618 12,508 -110 18,851 60,973
Aug-22 11,888 12,056 11,718 11,930 12,006 11,892 -114 11,579 35,864
Sep-22 11,522 11,640 11,308 11,552 11,550 11,488 -62 802,111 302,279
Oct-22 11,282 11,394 11,084 11,336 11,336 11,246 -90 11,265 18,036
Nov-22 11,100 11,226 10,930 11,118 11,174 11,088 -86 2,666 3,685
Dec-22 11,000 11,000 10,938 10,938 11,064 10,958 -106 3 143
Jan-23 11,000 11,030 10,702 10,902 10,972 10,844 -128 31,183 40,581
Feb-23 10,846 10,894 10,652 10,750 10,844 10,756 -88 37 70
Mar-23 10,702 10,704 10,508 10,666 10,576 10,618 42 24 130
Apr-23 10,500 10,650 10,394 10,650 10,600 10,524 -76 13 43
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 701,700 lots, or 76.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 11,210 11,210 10,980 11,118 11,210 11,104 -106 65 1,911
Jul-22 11,166 11,214 10,946 11,138 11,238 11,080 -158 30,110 89,395
Aug-22 11,078 11,164 10,898 11,082 11,172 11,004 -168 25,681 57,977
Sep-22 11,050 11,094 10,826 10,998 11,096 10,960 -136 593,513 378,388
Nov-22 10,916 10,980 10,736 10,886 10,988 10,852 -136 21,516 27,239
Dec-22 10,872 10,934 10,694 10,846 10,936 10,784 -152 9,421 8,380
Jan-23 10,876 10,882 10,640 10,796 10,884 10,750 -134 14,781 22,147
Mar-23 10,706 10,764 10,524 10,676 10,752 10,632 -120 6,613 3,127
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322