About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher all week on a weaker US Dollar and dry conditions in the western Great Plains. Trading on Friday was lower on some long liquidation and the market surrendered the weekly gains. The Fed increased interest rates by 0.5% at its meetings last week. The trade is also worried about Chinese demand due to the Covid lockdowns there. India will now try to increase imports as world and US Cotton is now lower cost to importers as import taxes have been removed, but prices for imported Cotton are still very high. Production of the next US crop is at risk now due to dry weather in general for the western Great Plains. China could be trimming imports due to Covid and is also closing down a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation. China has been buying even with the port closures and domestic difficulties caused by renewed Covid lockdowns. Traders are worried about Chinese demand moving forward.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get isolated to scattered showers and above normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 138.61 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,101 bales, from 1,101 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 14070, 13760, and 13620 July, with resistance of 14870, 15290 and 15590 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 03, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 284,906
: Positions :
: 70,071 10,853 67,255 46,440 188,446 80,270 9,730 264,036 276,284: 20,869 8,621
: Changes from: April 26, 2022 (Change in open interest: 15,665) :
: 2,195 396 8,096 2,970 6,443 1,260 504 14,520 15,439: 1,145 226
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 24.6 3.8 23.6 16.3 66.1 28.2 3.4 92.7 97.0: 7.3 3.0
: Total Traders: 281 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 133 29 81 53 62 51 21 254 177:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher last week and tested the recent highs on the weekly charts. Inflation and central bank actions to counter inflation have many concerns about how consumers will be affected and what the buying power of consumers might be in the end. The market is short Oranges and short juice production but is also worried about domestic demand destruction as pills are becoming cheaper again. The greening disease has taken its toll on the US crop and the previous Brazil crop was down significantly due to drought. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good, but it is drier now and some tree stress could develop soon. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures. The Florida Dept of Citrus said that FCOJ stocks are now 30.2% less than last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get isolated showers and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 174.00, 169.00, and 164.00 July, with resistance at 182.00, 187.00, and 189.00 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 3, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 14,478 :
: Positions :
: 1,063 11,212 2,849 0 4 4,205 0 465 1,093 97 1,863 :
: Changes from: April 26, 2022 :
: -813 -530 43 0 -1 267 0 443 31 11 234 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.3 77.4 19.7 0.0 0.0 29.0 0.0 3.2 7.5 0.7 12.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 56 :
: 12 12 6 0 . 21 0 . 11 . 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were both higher early in the week before turning down on Friday on what appeared to be risk off selling from speculators. The Fed raised interest rates last week so there are fears of a cooling economy and less demand. The Ukraine war is also supporting ideas of less demand from Europe generally and Ukraine and Russia. A weaker US Dollar and concerns about inflation continue. Arabica offers have started to increase as the Brazilian Real has turned a little weaker, and there are still some Robusta offers hitting London. Ideas are that demand could get hurt as inflation and central bank actions hurt buying power from consumers. Demand from China is thought to be less due to the war against Covid. Deliveries from Vietnam and Brazil Robusta are noted to be decreasing as the harvest is now complete. Indonesian offers are higher due to plentiful stocks inside the country. Arabica deliveries from Brazil are less in part due to less production and in part due to a stronger Real that has cut prices paid to farmers inside the country. Less deliveries are reported from Vietnam now as producers have sold most of the crop and are holding the rest and waiting for higher prices. Good growing conditions for the next crop in Brazil are still around but flowering is reported to be uneven this year in at least some areas.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.121 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 188.63 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 0 delivery notices were tendered against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 478 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 206.00 and 196.00 July. Support is at 210.00, 207.00, and 204.00 July, and resistance is at 222.00, 225.00 and 230.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2080, 2060, and 2040 July, and resistance is at 2130, 2140, and 2150 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 03, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 254,996
: Positions :
: 31,510 9,652 62,643 95,491 159,549 55,799 16,078 245,442 247,922: 9,553 7,074
: Changes from: April 26, 2022 (Change in open interest: 2,357) :
: -1,331 -749 1,275 1,363 -796 1,198 1,360 2,504 1,089: -147 1,268
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.4 3.8 24.6 37.4 62.6 21.9 6.3 96.3 97.2: 3.7 2.8
: Total Traders: 377 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 115 64 107 125 130 42 23 326 286:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/03/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
111,140 62,274 71,867 3,001 9,575 1,544
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 56.0% 64.7% 2.7% 8.6% 1.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
135 43 40 11 7 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
22,112 6,669 3,695 4,893 6,772 8,178
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
19.9% 6.0% 3.3% 4.4% 6.1% 7.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
29 15 9 7 11 13
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,443 2,840
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.9% 2.6%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed a little higher last week and moved once again with world petroleum prices. The Fed raised interest rates by 0.5% in its meetings last week. The US Dollar was strong and has been strong to drive up the price in local currencies of the importers and exporters, but the sell side knows futures have fallen and are holding. Increased offers from India and Thailand are expected if the market rallies. Pakistan is also increasing its offers due to good crops there. The US government is permitting refiners to blend 15% ethanol into the fuel mixtures instead of 10% for the coming Summer, but most of the Ethanol will come from Corn. India and Thailand expect improved crops this year. Thailand expects to produce about10 million tons of sugar this year, up 33% from last year. India said it could export more than 9.0 million tons of Sugar. Brazil could also have better Sugarcane production this year but the strengthening Real implies that most of the refining will be for Ethanol and not Sugar.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1930, 1970, and 1980 July. Support is at 1890, 1850, and 1810 July and resistance is at 1940, 1950, and 1990 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 540.00 and 551.00 August. Support is at 522.00, 515.00, and 508.00 August and resistance is at 534.00, 542.00, and 548.00 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 03, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 952,414
: Positions :
: 133,111 57,257 178,505 238,076 601,131 314,336 61,853 864,028 898,746: 88,386 53,667
: Changes from: April 26, 2022 (Change in open interest: -21,710) :
: -15,018 9,911 3,984 -5,589 -35,820 -1,312 354 -17,935 -21,570: -3,775 -140
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.0 6.0 18.7 25.0 63.1 33.0 6.5 90.7 94.4: 9.3 5.6
: Total Traders: 243 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 74 44 81 66 70 43 17 219 178:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/03/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
70,550 23,671 57,010 8,854 3,573 2,381
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 33.6% 80.8% 12.5% 5.1% 3.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
107 32 38 8 3 5
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
24,543 2,192 1,750 2,993 487 309
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
34.8% 3.1% 2.5% 4.2% 0.7% 0.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
31 6 10 8 3 6
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,049 2,848
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
8.6% 4.0%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were lower last week on liquidation trading after a rally attempt failed. The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa, but some are concerned about dry weather that could affect the yields for the midcrop harvest. Some showers are in the forecast for West Africa and have been for several weeks, but the precipitation was less than normal last week and net drying is reported. The weather is good in Southeast Asia. Ghana arrivals have been below year ago levels, but Ivory Coast arrivals are ahead of last year. Ivory Coast arrivals are now 1.807 million tons, down 3.2% from last year at this time.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.038 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 238 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2360 July. Support is at 2460, 2450, and 2420 July, with resistance at 2510, 2570, and 2620 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1760, 1740, and 1720 July, with resistance at 1890, 1820, and 1840 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 03, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 299,076
: Positions :
: 52,870 39,065 74,141 99,350 152,994 56,474 23,670 282,834 289,870: 16,242 9,207
: Changes from: April 26, 2022 (Change in open interest: 8,142) :
: 3,709 -10,969 5,590 -2,948 12,739 125 897 6,475 8,257: 1,667 -116
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.7 13.1 24.8 33.2 51.2 18.9 7.9 94.6 96.9: 5.4 3.1
: Total Traders: 236 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 82 56 75 51 39 30 21 201 162:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/03/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
286,746 157,927 181,275 23,958 39,966 17,554
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 55.1% 63.2% 8.4% 13.9% 6.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
137 49 43 11 8 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
35,178 7,619 16,471 12,306 445 20,661
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
12.3% 2.7% 5.7% 4.3% 0.2% 7.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
27 17 16 16 4 14
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
2,691 2,755
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.9% 1.0%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322