About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-May 5
For the week ended Apr 28, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 118.8 42.4 19415.7 25497.5 2142.2 2307.9
hrw 11.2 17.4 7501.2 8701.4 861.6 591.4
srw 18.2 11.5 2872.4 1836.0 314.0 603.0
hrs 54.7 13.5 5476.0 7655.2 686.1 648.9
white 34.2 0.0 3370.1 6640.3 280.0 400.3
durum 0.4 0.0 196.0 664.6 0.5 64.4
corn 782.5 737.9 58298.0 67856.9 18261.1 4944.7
soybeans 734.6 407.0 58311.8 61284.7 11020.0 11148.3
soymeal 232.2 0.4 9886.3 9625.5 2664.9 370.8
soyoil 14.7 0.0 665.1 668.8 136.4 0.0
upland cotton 232.4 93.2 14723.3 15213.0 6130.8 2939.3
pima cotton 3.4 4.0 467.5 772.8 114.4 44.6
sorghum 88.1 0.0 6805.1 7158.2 1924.3 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 20.5 30.6 5.7 8.6
rice 10.1 0.0 2615.1 2980.7 463.0 0.0

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – May 5
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE May May 06, 2022 11 May 04, 2022
KC HRW WHEAT May May 06, 2022 7 May 03, 2022
WHEAT May May 06, 2022 78 Apr 28, 2022

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday on news that Indian production is in trouble from hot and dry weather and that the country might have to regulate exports. India has denied it will regulate exports and said it has enough in storage, but futures were higher anyway.. Spring Wheat was a little higher bad weather that is still in the forecast for US and Canadian growing areas. The Fed is expected to increase interest rates by 0.5% this week. Trends are sideways in all three markets. Russia have been offering into the world market at relatively cheap prices but the Wheat is moving from the Black Sea although a lot of ships are scared to go on those waters. Ukraine can rail Wheat to Romania for shipment and has been doing this. Hard Red Winter Wheat was a little lower on forecasts for some light to moderate precipitation to fall in HRW growing areas of the western Great Plains this week and more cold weather is forecast for the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies. The western US Great Plains remained too dry and crop conditions were very poor and the war continued in Ukraine with little if any ideas of a cease fire mentioned. India announced overnight that it was considering regulating Wheat exports as hot and dry weather has hurt production.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers in western areas. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 1042, 1034, and 1023 July, with resistance at 10789, 1107, and 1143 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 1115, 1087, and 1069 July, with resistance at 1134, 1157, and 1182 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 1154, 1147, and 1130 July, and resistance is at 1189, 1208, and 1218 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was mixed. The Fed increased interest rates by 0.5% yesterday. There are a lot of fears of a recession coming very soon. There still was some buying seen in reaction to the slow progress in Rice planting and emergence in the US. The slow progress and wet and cold conditions in Arkansas have many looking for a lower planted area and all planted area is expected to be less, anyway, due to high input costs against the price of Rice. The overall rally is expected to continue after the current selloff and more contract highs are very possible.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1691, 1675, and 1658 July and resistance is at 1749, 1752, and 17764 July.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed higher yesterday. The Fed increased interest rates by 0.5% yesterday. Some buying was noted in response to cold and wet Midwestern weather and on demand ideas. Oats were higher. New crop futures worked lower after trading higher in the overnight session despite forecasts for cold and wet weather for the US Midwest. The initial higher prices came on the planting delays. More rain should arrive later this week but then forecasts call for drier and much warmer conditions. The crop planting progress is slow already and the market will start to worry about yield loss soon. It already thinks there is reduced planted area because of the March planning intentions reports from USDA. The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter. China has a Covid outbreak again and has closed some cities and some ports in response. The moves are harsh but China has a no tolerance policy about the pandemic. The closings of cities and ports will hurt the economy as people can’t make or spend money and hurt imports as there will be fewer places to unload cargoes. However, China has been a very big buyer of US Corn over the last couple of weeks as they need the feed and Ukraine cannot currently offer any supply. President Biden has said he will permit the use of higher ethanol blends in gasoline this Summer in an effort to control inflation and high fuel prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 790, 781, and 771 July, and resistance is at 814, 824, and 828 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 659, 647, and 640 July, and resistance is at 685, 698, and 709 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed higher yesterday and Soybean Meal was lower. The Fed raised interest rates by 0.5% this week. There were ideas that the world could be headed to a recession. Some buying came on the reduced production from South America and on increasing concerns in the US about the cold and wet Midwest weather keeping farmers from the fields for planting. Ideas are that the cold and wet weather now could mean less Corn and more Soybeans get planted. Traders are worried about demand moving forward as the US Dollar is very strong and China is locking down due to Covid. Demand has been strong even with a slower export pace from the US with NOPA showing a higher crush rate. The market had been told last week that all Palm Oil exports from Indonesia were banned. President Biden has said he will support expanded use of bio fuels this Summer in an effort to control higher fuel prices. More sanctions are now threatened for Russia due to what the world is seeing in Ukraine right now. There are still worries about Chinese demand because of Covid lockdowns there. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America and bought Soybeans again yesterday. They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs. Most of the current buying is for next year. Ideas are that the Chinese economy could slow down due to the Covid lockdowns there and cause the country to purchase less Soybeans in the world market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1631, 1619, and 1600 July. Support is at 1619, 1600, and 1569 July, and resistance is at 1657, 1679, and 1705 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 425.00 July. Support is at 4211.00, 402.00, and 393.00 July, and resistance is at 429.00 436.00, and 4439.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 7930, 7800, and 7700 July, with resistance at 8320, 8400, and 8760 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today. There are ideas that MPOB will show reduced demand and increased stocks in its monthly reports that will be released next week. The Indonesian ban on Palm Oil products imports is now in effect and a ban on Crude Palm Oil exports is coming, according to the Indonesian government. The industry estimates the ban could last through the month of May, but the government has made no such prediction. Hopes for better demand from India keep the market supported. A new Covid outbreak is reported in China and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports. The economy could slow down and affect demand. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was higher along with Chicago. It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting. StatsCan said that Canadian farmers intend to reduce planted area for Canola this year and use the area to plant Wheat instead. There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well. Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight. Supplies are not likely to improve much with the projections for reduced planted area this week from StatsCan.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 1122.00, 1108.00, and 1093.00 July, with resistance at 1150.00, 1182.00, and 1201.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 6800, 6530, and 6180 July, with resistance at 7130, 7200, and 7320 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers and storms. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May
98 May
250 May 150 May
130 May

June
95 July
220 July
135 July
145 July

July
94 July
210 July
80 July
136 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 2

WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures for May 2, 2022.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 1,183.10 -1.10 May 22 dn 18.90
Basis: Thunder Bay 1,198.80 55.00 Jul 22 dn 44.30
Basis: Vancouver 1,208.80 65.00 Jul 22 dn 44.30
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 5
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
May 1837.50 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 1837.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1562.50 -80.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1462.50 -55.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1840.00 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 1840.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1565.00 -80.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1465.00 -55.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1745.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1510.00 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 7550.00 -200.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 487.00 -08.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.347)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 05
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 93,922 lots, or 5.72 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 6,082 6,082 6,080 6,080 6,134 6,081 -53 10 4,328
Jul-22 6,210 6,230 6,117 6,138 6,180 6,139 -41 73,135 102,100
Sep-22 6,030 6,080 5,983 6,003 6,039 6,005 -34 13,389 31,088
Nov-22 5,867 5,878 5,780 5,806 5,843 5,802 -41 7,057 16,674
Jan-23 5,815 5,824 5,746 5,770 5,796 5,769 -27 297 2,495
Mar-23 5,796 5,796 5,720 5,739 5,774 5,744 -30 34 408
Corn
Turnover: 403,016 lots, or 12.14 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 2,933 2,933 2,915 2,916 2,912 2,922 10 4,204 43,152
Jul-22 2,985 2,985 2,962 2,969 2,971 2,971 0 69,074 363,807
Sep-22 3,035 3,035 3,016 3,022 3,027 3,024 -3 298,332 1,314,546
Nov-22 2,999 3,014 2,986 2,990 2,995 2,992 -3 6,657 64,192
Jan-23 3,015 3,021 2,997 2,999 3,011 3,003 -8 19,916 92,398
Mar-23 3,017 3,028 3,009 3,011 3,024 3,014 -10 4,833 25,008
Soymeal
Turnover: 674,268 lots, or 26.99 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 4,180 4,180 4,125 4,159 4,153 4,140 -13 1,526 4,047
Jul-22 4,138 4,157 4,117 4,150 4,167 4,137 -30 44,462 216,788
Aug-22 4,071 4,114 4,065 4,110 4,113 4,091 -22 12,374 141,359
Sep-22 4,000 4,055 3,990 4,050 4,049 4,025 -24 498,684 1,293,693
Nov-22 3,954 3,998 3,937 3,995 3,981 3,971 -10 22,877 83,549
Dec-22 3,867 3,924 3,865 3,916 3,909 3,901 -8 17,423 27,278
Jan-23 3,809 3,849 3,752 3,834 3,834 3,817 -17 65,875 239,269
Mar-23 3,674 3,702 3,634 3,690 3,687 3,678 -9 11,047 12,159
Palm Oil
Turnover: 604,560 lots, or 72.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 16,440 16,440 14,714 15,000 14,832 15,696 864 1,074 1,982
Jun-22 13,800 13,992 13,600 13,782 13,852 13,820 -32 21,555 22,010
Jul-22 13,134 13,296 12,830 12,948 13,192 13,026 -166 11,049 58,047
Aug-22 12,506 12,770 12,214 12,322 12,618 12,374 -244 6,039 32,436
Sep-22 12,000 12,270 11,766 11,884 12,148 11,938 -210 535,438 308,466
Oct-22 11,964 12,012 11,516 11,646 11,898 11,678 -220 6,283 14,091
Nov-22 11,578 11,578 11,260 11,402 11,688 11,378 -310 823 793
Dec-22 11,438 11,438 11,152 11,302 11,544 11,286 -258 47 156
Jan-23 11,328 11,392 11,052 11,196 11,404 11,170 -234 22,207 33,702
Feb-23 11,056 11,064 10,988 11,064 11,330 11,042 -288 10 68
Mar-23 11,238 11,238 10,722 10,884 11,104 10,888 -216 23 118
Apr-23 11,066 11,066 10,610 10,746 11,038 10,778 -260 12 32
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 446,543 lots, or 50.55 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 11,576 11,722 11,396 11,404 11,576 11,542 -34 836 2,038
Jul-22 11,520 11,692 11,390 11,442 11,636 11,474 -162 22,349 85,747
Aug-22 11,410 11,596 11,308 11,366 11,572 11,386 -186 16,637 54,627
Sep-22 11,540 11,540 11,236 11,278 11,482 11,326 -156 368,479 422,427
Nov-22 11,210 11,406 11,116 11,148 11,386 11,190 -196 17,446 25,352
Dec-22 11,276 11,360 11,046 11,094 11,346 11,138 -208 8,170 6,880
Jan-23 11,158 11,304 11,016 11,040 11,290 11,094 -196 10,306 18,729
Mar-23 11,276 11,282 10,910 10,936 11,138 10,972 -166 2,320 1,040
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322