Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
DJ U.S. March Coffee, Cocoa Imports-May 4
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Mar 2022—- —-Feb 2022—-
-coffee- kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coffee, unroasted 127,040,737 280,124,825 103,636,870 228,519,298
coffee, roasted 8,514,987 18,775,546 6,975,326 15,380,594
instant 6,940,452 15,303,697 4,679,581 10,318,476
cocoa beans 39,800,313 87,759,690 21,530,915 47,475,668
10 lbs or over 2,708,680 5,972,639 2,392,497 5,275,456
for retail candy 0 0 0 0
cocoa butter 8,964,449 19,766,610 5,889,450 12,986,237
not defatted 6,226,540 13,729,521 3,428,421 7,559,668
defatted 7,701,460 16,981,719 3,586,099 7,907,348
unsweetened 7,861,148 17,333,831 6,611,077 14,577,425
sweetened 28,139 62,046 63,852 140,794
coating 6,037,277 13,312,196 4,840,314 10,672,892
chocolate 12,977,216 28,614,761 9,004,040 19,853,908
General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday on profit taking and despite a weaker US Dollar. Speculators are worried that inflation and central bank actions to counter inflation could hurt demand. The Fed is expected to increase interest rates by 0.5% at its meetings this week. Futures had an inside day yesterday even with the big rally. The trade is also worried about Chinese demand due to the Covid lockdowns there. India will now try to increase imports as world and US Cotton is now lower cost to importers as import taxes have been removed, but prices for imported Cotton are still very high. Production of the next US crop is at risk now due to dry weather in general for the western Great Plains. China could be imports due to Covid and is also closing down a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation. China has been buying even with the port closures and domestic difficulties caused by renewed Covid lockdowns. Traders are worried about Chinese demand moving forward.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get isolated to scattered showers and above normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 145.08 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,101 bales, from 1,101 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 16180 July. Support is at 14770, 14480, and 14400 July, with resistance of 15320, 15440 and 15560 July.
DJ U.S. March Cotton Exports-May 4
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Mar 22 Feb 22 Jan 22 Mar 21
Upland, under 1 inch 9,185,877 8,363,956 7,284,731 29,075,913
1 to 1 1/8 inch 128,431,547 110,732,601 96,005,228 125,686,165
upland 1 1/8 and over 8,012,280 7,798,140 6,288,104 9,759,875
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 278,570,603 230,153,878 196,595,612 191,947,541
All cotton 424,200,307 357,048,575 306,173,675 356,469,494
——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
Mar 22 Feb 22 Jan 22 Mar 21
Upland, under 1 inch 42,190 38,415 33,458 133,545
1 to 1 1/8 inch 589,881 508,591 440,948 577,272
upland 1 1/8 and over 36,800 35,817 28,881 44,827
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 1,279,464 1,057,088 902,956 881,608
All cotton 1,948,336 1,639,911 1,406,244 1,637,251
General Comments: FCOJ was higher yesterday. Inflation and central bank actions to counter inflation have many concerns about how consumers will be affected and what the buying power of consumers might be in the end. The market is short Oranges and short juice production but is also worried about domestic demand destruction as pills are becoming cheaper again. The greening disease has taken its toll on the US crop and the previous Brazil crop was down significantly due to drought. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good, but it is drier now and some tree stress could develop soon. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures. The Florida Dept of Citrus said that FCOJ stocks are now 30.2% less than last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get isolated showers and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 174.00, 169.00, and 164.00 July, with resistance at 182.00, 187.00, and 189.00 July.
General Comments: New York was lower and London was a little higher yesterday with differing views on the inflation moves by the Fed controlling much of the action. A stronger US Dollar and concerns about inflation continue and what the central banks might do to counter inflationary tendencies are important and what the banks could do is causing a lot of fear among traders. Traders anticipate that the Fed will raise interest rates by 0.5% but it could raise them more and create a bearish shock to the market. Arabica offers have started to increase as the Brazilian Real has turned a little weaker, and there are still some Robusta offers hitting London. Ideas are that demand could get hurt as inflation and central bank actions hurt buying power from consumers. Demand from Russia and China is thought to be less due to the war against Ukraine and the war against Covid. Deliveries from Vietnam and Brazil Robusta are noted to be decreasing as the harvest is now complete. Indonesian offers are increasing due to plentiful stocks inside the country. Arabica deliveries from Brazil are less in part due to less production and in part due to a stronger Real that has cut prices paid to farmers inside the country. Less deliveries are reported from Vietnam now as producers have sold most of the crop and are holding the rest and waiting for higher prices. Good growing conditions for the next crop in Brazil are still around but flowering is reported to be uneven this year in at least some areas.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.115 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 193.84 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 86 delivery notices were tendered against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 467 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 215.00, 213.00, and 210.00 July, and resistance is at 225.00, 230.00 and 233.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2080, 2060, and 2010 July, and resistance is at 2130, 2140, and 2150 July.
General Comments: Both markets closed lower yesterday on ideas of increasing offers and weaker petroleum prices. Speculators were worried about inflation and what actions the central banks could take to combat it. Ideas are that consumer demand could be hurt. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 0.5% in its meetings this week. The US Dollar was strong and has been strong to drive up the price in local currencies of the importers and exporters, but the sell side knows futures have fallen and are holding. Increased offers from India and Thailand are expected if the market continues to rally. Pakistan is also increasing its offers due to good crops there. The US government is permitting refiners to blend 15% ethanol into the fuel mixtures instead of 10% for the coming Summer, but most of the Ethanol will come from Corn. India and Thailand expect improved crops this year. Thailand expects to produce about10 million tons of sugar this year, up 33% from last year. India said it could produce more than 9.0 million tons of Sugar. Brazil could also have better Sugarcane production this year but the strengthening Real implies that most of the refining will be for Ethanol and not Sugar.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1800 and 1`740 July. Support is at 1850, 1810, and 1790 July and resistance is at 1910, 1940, and 1950 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 518.00, 515.00, and 508.00 August and resistance is at 542.00, 548.00, and 554.00 August.
General Comments: New York and London were higher on what appeared to be speculative follow through buying. The trends are up on the daily charts. The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa, but some are concerned about dry weather that could affect the yields for the midcrop harvest. Some showers are in the forecast for West Africa and have been for several weeks, but the precipitation was less than normal last week and net drying is reported. The weather is good in Southeast Asia. Ghana arrivals have been below year ago levels, but Ivory Coast arrivals are ahead of last year. Ivory Coast arrivals are now 1.807 million tons, down 3.2% from last year at this time.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.035 million bags. ICE said that 13 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 238 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2550, 2520, and 2500 July, with resistance at 2650, 2680, and 2700 July. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1860 and 1920 July. Support is at 1800, 1760, and 1740 July, with resistance at 1850, 1870, and 1900 July.