About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – May 4
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE May May 05, 2022 2 May 02, 2022
KC HRW WHEAT May May 05, 2022 59 May 03, 2022
OATS May May 05, 2022 5 May 02, 2022
WHEAT May May 05, 2022 55 Apr 28, 2022

DJ U.S. March Grain Imports-May 4
In kilograms, from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to
pounds by Dow Jones.
—-Mar 2022—- —-Feb 2022—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
durum wheat 23,976 52,867 3,030 6,681
spring wheat 190,512 420,079 108,864 240,045
winter wheat 0 0 0 0
wheat/meslin 0 0 0 0
TOTAL WHEAT 214,488 472,946 111,894 246,726
barley 58,429,385 128,836,794 2,314,489 5,103,448
oats 1,429,016 3,150,980 468,429 1,032,886
corn 14,788,620 32,608,907 82,606,685 182,147,740
other corn 5,451,604 12,020,787 7,497,822 16,532,698
TOTAL CORN 20,240,224 44,629,694 90,104,507 198,680,438

DJ U.S. Mar Soymeal, Vegetable Oils/Oilseed Imports-May 4
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Mar 2022—- —-Feb 2022—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coconut oil 26,223,663 57,823,177 49,823,872 109,861,638
palm kernel oil 21,513,583 47,437,451 26,901,507 59,317,823
palm oil 131,820,545 290,664,302 97,251,757 214,440,124
soybean 29,180,685 64,343,410 44,536,584 98,203,168
soymeal 0 0 0 0
soyoil 10,063,692 22,190,441 9,782,474 21,570,355
rapeseed oil
edible 180,968,432 399,035,393 148,910,213 328,347,020
rapeseed oil,
inedible 81,548 179,813 81,160

DJ U.S. March Grain Exports-May 4
In kilograms (top) and in bushels (bottom), except flour in cwt and malt
in pounds. /1 denotes includes commercial and donated. Source: U.S. Department
of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Mar 22 Feb 22 Jan 22 Mar 21
Barley 409,237 81,898 2,052,363 1,290,377
Corn /1 7,446,178,000 6,653,302,000 5,899,894,000 9,468,433,000
Sorghum 1,299,258,000 881,257,000 538,443,000 795,273,000
Oats 2,590,323 4,405,934 1,538,679 6,506,883
Rye 170,407 69,260 0 67,664
Wheat /1 1,712,412,944 1,854,656,428 1,727,577,111 2,147,217,704
wheat flour /1 20,623,577 18,349,723 17,978,521 24,765,276
Malt 21,290,948 19,067,929 23,856,015 32,634,204
——- In Bushels, CWT or Pounds ——-
Mar 22 Feb 22 Jan 22 Mar 21
Barley 18,796 3,762 94,263 59,266
Corn /1 293,140,071 261,926,242 232,266,183 372,751,916
Sorghum 51,149,003 34,693,200 21,197,347 31,308,194
Oats 178,457 303,541 106,005 448,284
Rye 6,709 2,727 0 2,664
Wheat /1 62,919,759 68,146,259 63,476,941 78,895,935
wheat flour /1 454,672 404,542 396,359 545,981
Malt 46,938,514 42,037,595 52,593,519 71,946,117
1/Includes commercial and donated.

DJ U.S. March Oilseed, Meal, Oils/Fats Exports-May 4
In kilograms (top). Oils in pounds, soybeans in bushels, meal and hulls in
short tons (bottom). Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Mar 22 Feb 22 Jan 22 Mar 21
soybeans 3,184,487,751 3,792,027,681 6,392,778,308 2,296,299,759
soyoil 120,901,482 106,888,467 129,017,986 70,690,293
crude 110,428,276 83,276,495 110,980,084 60,705,266
refined 82,579 50,131 178,816 150,517
other/1 10,056,110 23,282,021 17,671,309 9,356,016
hydrogenated 334,517 279,820 187,777 478,494
cottonseed oil 3,325,824 5,331,238 5,490,815 4,238,401
crude 218,278 241,423 947,598 1,693,901
refined 2,426,630 4,350,457 1,192,461 1,088,872
other/1 408,758 550,642 3,197,870 1,455,628
hydrogenated 272,158 188,716 152,886 0
sunseeds 169,981 0 112,054 370,936
sunseed oil 7,422,149 5,038,571 8,767,299 5,326,358
rapeseed 22,020,840 11,248,554 9,988,721 9,347,171
rapeseed oil 14,236,389 10,518,202 12,697,781 18,603,484
crude 3,183,106 3,125,950 3,656,176 9,069,627
refined 11,053,283 7,392,252 9,041,605 9,533,857
linseed meal 134,174 0 0 173,146
cottonseed meal 2,467,303 2,863,104 1,829,597 3,336,784
soymeal 915,366,094 802,479,409 949,508,867 965,665,030
soymeal/flour 167,076,845 172,032,020 207,618,688 206,458,329
soymeal hulls 4,082,000 7,630,000 20,729,000 6,624,000
lard 1,452,756 948,697 827,416 1,948,282
edible tallow 6,981,604 5,068,015 11,161,578 12,419,198
inedible tallow 7,988,346 10,223,146 15,068,259 22,012,764
ch white grease 0 14,646 18,153 0

——- In Bushels, Pounds or Short Tons ——-
Mar 22 Feb 22 Jan 22 Mar 21
soybeans 117,008,694 139,331,736 234,891,982 84,373,707
soyoil 266,542,188 235,648,773 284,436,019 155,845,446
crude 243,452,717 183,593,276 244,669,246 133,832,226
refined 182,056 110,520 394,222 331,833
other/1 22,169,931 51,328,079 38,958,574 20,626,488
hydrogenated 737,484 616,898 413,977 1,054,899
cottonseed oil 7,332,188 11,753,370 12,105,177 9,344,076
crude 481,221 532,247 2,089,096 3,734,413
refined 5,349,804 9,591,118 2,628,927 2,400,552
other/1 901,157 1,213,958 7,050,098 3,209,111
hydrogenated 600,006 416,048 337,056 0
sunseeds 374,744 0 247,037 817,774
sunseed oil 16,363,040 11,108,150 19,328,589 11,742,611
rapeseed 48,547,650 24,798,821 22,021,364 20,606,988
rapeseed oil 31,385,871 23,188,670 27,993,820 41,013,669
crude 7,017,549 6,891,541 8,060,490 19,995,108
refined 24,368,322 16,297,129 19,933,330 21,018,560
linseed meal 148 0 0 191
cottonseed meal 2,720 3,156 2,017 3,678
soymeal 1,009,008 884,573 1,046,644 1,064,453
soymeal flour/me 184,169 189,631 228,858 227,579
soymeal hulls 4,500 8,411 22,850 7,302
lard 3,202,779 2,091,519 1,824,140 4,295,227
edible tallow 15,391,805 11,173,062 24,607,072 27,379,650
inedible tallow 17,611,291 22,538,183 33,219,830 48,529,846
ch white grease 0 32,289 40,021 0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower again yesterday but held the low from the previous day on inflation concerns and concerns about how the FED and other central banks will combat inflation and on reports of more Russian Wheat offers into the world market. Spring Wheat was a little higher bad weather that is still in the forecast for US and Canadian growing areas. The Fed is expected to increase interest rates by 0.5% this week. Trends are sideways in Minneapolis Spring and down in HRW and SRW. Russia have been offering into the world market at relatively cheap prices but the Wheat is moving from the Black Sea although a lot of ships are scared to go on those waters. Ukraine can rail Wheat to Romania for shipment and has been doing this. Hard Red Winter Wheat was a little lower on forecasts for some light to moderate precipitation to fall in HRW growing areas of the western Great Plains this week and more cold weather is forecast for the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies. The western US Great Plains remained too dry and crop conditions were very poor and the war continued in Ukraine with little if any ideas of a cease fire mentioned. India announced overnight that it was considering regulating Wheat exports as hot and dry weather has hurt production.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers in western areas. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 1023, 1014, and 982 July. Support is at 1034, 1023, and 1014 July, with resistance at 1071, 1081, and 1107 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 1042 July. Support is at 1087, 1069, and 1050 July, with resistance at 1133, 1157, and 1182 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 1154, 1147, and 1130 July, and resistance is at 1189, 1208, and 1218 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower along with the other grains and oilseeds as the trade worried about inflation and what the world’s central banks could do to combat it. The Fed is expected to increase interest rates by 0.5% this week. There are a lot of fears of a recession coming very soon. There still was some buying seen in reaction to the slow progress in Rice planting and emergence in the US. The slow progress and wet and cold conditions in Arkansas have many looking for a lower planted area and all planted area is expected to be less, anyway, due to high input costs against the price of Rice. The overall rally is expected to continue after the current selloff and more contract highs are very possible.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1691, 1675, and 1658 July and resistance is at 1749, 1752, and 17764 July.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – May 4
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 14.94 9.46 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 14.74 10.06 0.00
Brokens 9.48 —- —-

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed lower again yesterday in response to speculator concerns about inflation and what the FED and other central banks will be doing to combat the inflation now seen here and around the world. The Fed is expected to increase interest rates by 0.5% this week. Some buying was noted in response to cold and wet Midwestern weather and on demand ideas. Oats were higher. New crop futures worked lower after trading higher in the overnight session despite forecasts for cold and wet weather for the US Midwest. The initial higher prices came on the planting delays. More rain should arrive tonight and later this week. The crop planting progress is slow already and the market will start to worry about yield loss soon. It already thinks there is reduced planted area because of the March planning intentions reports from USDA. The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter. China has a Covid outbreak again and has closed some cities and some ports in response. The moves are harsh but China has a no tolerance policy about the pandemic. The closings of cities and ports will hurt the economy as people can’t make or spend money and hurt imports as there will be fewer places to unload cargoes. However, China has been a very big buyer of US Corn over the last couple of weeks as they need the feed and Ukraine cannot currently offer any supply. President Biden has said he will permit the use of higher ethanol blends in gasoline this Summer in an effort to control inflation and high fuel prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 790, 781, and 771 July, and resistance is at 814, 824, and 828 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 659, 647, and 640 July, and resistance is at 679, 681, and 698 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower yesterday on what appeared to be speculative selling due to inflation fears and what central banks including the Fed were going to do to combat the inflation. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 0.5% this week. There were ideas that the world could be headed to a recession. Some buying came on the reduced production from South America and on increasing concerns in the US about the cold and wet Midwest weather keeping farmers from the fields for planting. Ideas are that the cold and wet weather now could mean less Corn and more Soybeans get planted. Traders are worried about demand moving forward as the US Dollar is very strong and China is locking down due to Covid. Demand has been strong even with a slower export pace from the US with NOPA showing a higher crush rate. The market had been told last week that all Palm Oil exports from Indonesia were banned. President Biden has said he will support expanded use of bio fuels this Summer in an effort to control higher fuel prices. More sanctions are now threatened for Russia due to what the world is seeing in Ukraine right now. There are still worries about Chinese demand because of Covid lockdowns there. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America and bought Soybeans again yesterday. They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs. Most of the current buying is for next year. Ideas are that the Chinese economy could slow down due to the Covid lockdowns there and cause the country to purchase less Soybeans in the world market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1631, 1619, and 1600 July. Support is at 1635, 16319, and 1600 July, and resistance is at 1657, 17679, and 1705 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 425.00 July. Support is at 423.00, 411.00, and 402.00 July, and resistance is at 436.00 439.00, and 441.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 7800, 7700, and 7360 July, with resistance at 8320, 8400, and 8760 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was closed today for a holiday. The Indonesian ban on Palm Oil products imports is now in effect and a ban on Crude Palm Oil exports is coming, according to the Indonesian government. The industry estimates the ban could last through the month of May, but the government has made no such prediction. Hopes for better demand from India keep the market supported. A new Covid outbreak is reported in China and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports. The economy could slow down and affect demand. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was lower along with Chicago. It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting. StatsCan said that Canadian farmers intend to reduce planted area for Canola this year and use the area to plant Wheat instead. There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well. Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight. Supplies are not likely to improve much with the projections for reduced planted area this week from StatsCan.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 1122.00, 1108.00, and 1093.00 July, with resistance at 1150.00, 1182.00, and 1201.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 6800, 6530, and 6180 July, with resistance at 7130, 7200, and 7320 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers and storms. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May
98 May
250 May 150 May
130 May

June
95 July
220 July
135 July
145 July

July
94 July
210 July
80 July
136 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 2

WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures for May 2, 2022.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 1,183.10 -1.10 May 22 dn 18.90
Basis: Thunder Bay 1,198.80 55.00 Jul 22 dn 44.30
Basis: Vancouver 1,208.80 65.00 Jul 22 dn 44.30
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322