About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Crop Progress
Date 1-May 24-Apr 2021 Avg
Cotton Planted 16 12 15 15
Corn Planted 14 7 42 33
Corn Emerged 3 2 7 6
Soybeans Planted 8 3 22 13
Sorghum Planted 20 19 20 23
Rice Planted 45 26 62 56
Rice Emerged 24 19 36 38
Peanuts Planted 10 4 10 13
Sugarbeets Planted 18 11 76 47
Oats Planted 45 39 70 58
Oats Emerged 31 27 46 40
Winter Wheat Headed 23 11 26 29
Spring Wheat Planted 19 13 46 28
S[pring Wheat Emerged 5 2 13 7
Barley Planted 36 24 50 37
Barley Emerged 10 3 16 12

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Winter Wheat This Week 22 21 30 24 3
Winter Wheat Last Week 20 19 34 24 3
Winter Wheat Last Year 6 13 33 42 6

Pastures and Ranges This Week 29 27 26 17 1
Pastures and Ranges Last Week
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 22 25 31 20 2

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – May 2
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon May 02, 2022 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING APR 28, 2022
— METRIC TONS —
—————————————————————————
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 04/28/2022 04/21/2022 04/29/2021 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 73 0 499 10,156 33,143
CORN 1,683,994 1,665,105 2,211,277 36,577,009 43,620,219
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 324 509
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 600 6,514
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 217,881 169,144 235,496 5,306,921 5,620,367
SOYBEANS 601,282 605,385 155,374 47,206,500 55,652,995
SUNFLOWER 288 384 0 2,260 0
WHEAT 384,460 289,607 533,203 18,755,678 23,189,100
Total 2,887,978 2,729,625 3,135,849 107,859,448 128,122,847
————————————————————————–
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – May 3
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE May May 04, 2022 27 May 02, 2022
KC HRW WHEAT May May 04, 2022 13 Apr 29, 2022
WHEAT May May 04, 2022 159 Apr 28, 2022

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday on inflation concerns and concerns about how the FED and other central banks will combat inflation and on reports of more Russian Wheat offers into the world market. Spring Wheat was a little higher bad weather that is still in the forecast for US and Canadian growing areas. Trends are sideways in Minneapolis Spring and down in HRW and SRW. Russia have been offering into the world market at relatively cheap prices but the Wheat is moving from the Black Sea although a lot of ships are scared to go on those waters. Hard Red Winter Wheat was a little lower on forecasts for some light to moderate precipitation to fall in JHRW growing areas of the western Great Plains this week and more cold weather is forecast for the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies. The western US Great Plains remained too dry and crop conditions were very poor and the war continued in Ukraine with little if any ideas of a cease fire mentioned. Ports are closed in Ukraine but Russian shippers and exporters are offering and some sales are being reported at Black Sea ports despite the high insurance costs associated with the boats coming into the sea. Ukraine can rail the exports to the EU for shipment but the amount that can be moved is very limited. But, Romania is taking the Ukrainian grain and shipping it.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated o scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers in western areas. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 1023, 1014, and 982 July, with resistance at 1081, 1107, and 1143 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 1091 and 1042 July. Support is at 1092, 1069, and 1050 July, with resistance at 1133, 1157, and 1182 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 1147, 1130, and 1115 July, and resistance is at 1189, 1208, and 1218 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was sharply lower along with the other grains and oilseeds as the trade started to worry about inflation and what the world’s central banks could do to combat it. There are a lot of fears of a recession coming very soon. There still was some buying seen in reaction to the slow progress in Rice planting and emergence in the US. The slow progress and wet and cold conditions in Arkansas have many looking for a lower planted area and all planted area is expected to be less, anyway, due to high input costs against the price of Rice. The overall rally is expected to continue after the current selloff and more contract highs are very possible. It looks like supplies are tight and demand is holding together in this market. The cash market is showing that domestic mill business is around everywhere in light to moderate volumes. Export sales have been weaker in the last few weeks. Producer sales are reported to have been way ahead of average early in the marketing year so stocks on hand in first hands are reported to be lower than normal.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1700, 1675, and 1658 July and resistance is at 1749, 1752, and 17764 July.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed lower yesterday and gapped lower in response to speculator concerns about inflation and what the FED and other central banks will be doing to combat the inflation now seen here and around the world. Some buying was noted in response to cold and wet Midwestern weather and on demand ideas. Oats were higher. New crop futures spent the day lower despite forecasts for cold and wet weather for the US Midwest. More rain should arrive tonight and later this week. The crop planting progress is slow already and the market will start to worry about yield loss soon. It already thinks there is reduced planted area because of the March planning intentions reports from USDA. The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter. China has a Covid outbreak again and has closed some cities and some ports in response. The moves are harsh but China has a no tolerance policy about the pandemic. The closings of cities and ports will hurt the economy as people can’t make or spend money and hurt imports as there will be fewer places to unload cargoes. However, China has been a very big buyer of US Corn over the last couple of weeks as they need the feed and Ukraine cannot currently offer any supply. President Biden has said he will permit the use of higher ethanol blends in gasoline this Summer in an effort to control inflation and high fuel prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 790, 781, and 771 July, and resistance is at 8208, 810, and 824 July. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 626 July. Support is at 647, 640, and 617 July, and resistance is at 665, 679, and 681 July.

Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production Highlights:
Total corn consumed for alcohol and other uses was 511 million bushels in
March 2022. Total corn consumption was up 12 percent from February 2022 and
up 8 percent from March 2021. March 2022 usage included 91.6 percent for
alcohol and 8.4 percent for other purposes. Corn consumed for beverage
alcohol totaled 4.33 million bushels, up 7 percent from February 2022 and up
16 percent from March 2021. Corn for fuel alcohol, at 455 million bushels,
was up 12 percent from February 2022 and up 8 percent from March 2021. Corn
consumed in March 2022 for dry milling fuel production and wet milling fuel
production was 92.6 percent and 7.4 percent, respectively.

Dry mill co-product production of distillers dried grains with solubles
(DDGS) was 1.88 million tons during March 2022, up 11 percent from February
2022 and up 4 percent from March 2021. Distillers wet grains (DWG) 65 percent
or more moisture was 1.38 million tons in March 2022, up 7 percent from
February 2022 and up 24 percent from March 2021.

Wet mill corn gluten feed production was 250,258 tons during March 2022, up
5 percent from February 2022 but down 6 percent from March 2021. Wet corn
gluten feed 40 to 60 percent moisture was 226,860 tons in March 2022, up
19 percent from February 2022 and up 10 percent from March 2021.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower yesterday on what appeared to be speculative selling due to inflation fears and what central banks including the Fed were going to do to combat the inflation. There were ideas that the world could be headed to a recession. Some buying came on the reduced production from South America and on increasing concerns in the US about the cold and wet Midwest weather keeping farmers from the fields for planting. Ideas are that the cold and wet weather now could mean less Corn and more Soybeans get planted. Traders are worried about demand moving forward as the US Dollar is very strong and China is locking down due to Covid. Demand has been strong even with a slower export pace from the US with NOPA showing a higher crush rate. The market had been told last week that all Palm Oil exports from Indonesia were banned. President Biden has said he will support expanded use of bio fuels this Summer in an effort to control higher fuel prices. More sanctions are now threatened for Russia due to what the world is seeing in Ukraine right now. There are still worries about Chinese demand because of Covid lockdowns there. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America and bought Soybeans again yesterday. They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs. Most of the current buying is for next year. Ideas are that the Chinese economy could slow down due to the Covid lockdowns there and cause the country to purchase less Soybeans in the world market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1631, 1619, and 1600 July. Support is at 1635, 16319, and 1600 July, and resistance is at 17657, 17679, and 1705 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 425.00 July. Support is at 423.00, 411.00, and 402.00 July, and resistance is at 436.00 439.00, and 441.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 7800, 7700, and 7360 July, with resistance at 8320, 8400, and 8760 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was closed today for a holiday. The Indonesian ban on Palm Oil products imports is now in effect and a ban on Crude Palm Oil exports is coming, according to the Indonesian government. The industry estimates the ban could last through the month of May, but the government has made no such prediction. Hopes for better demand from India keep the market supported. A new Covid outbreak is reported in China and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports. The economy could slow down and affect demand. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was lower. It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting. StatsCan said that Canadian farmers intend to reduce planted area for Canola this year and use the area to plant Wheat instead. There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well. Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight. Supplies are not likely to improve much with the projections for reduced planted area this week from StatsCan.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with no objectives. Support is at 1135.00, 1123.00, and 1108.00 July, with resistance at 1150.00, 1182.00, and 1201.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 6800, 6530, and 6180 July, with resistance at 7130, 7200, and 7320 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers and storms. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May
98 May
250 May 150 May
130 May

June
95 July
220 July
135 July
145 July

July
94 July
210 July
80 July
136 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 2

WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures for May 2, 2022.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 1,183.10 -1.10 May 22 dn 18.90
Basis: Thunder Bay 1,198.80 55.00 Jul 22 dn 44.30
Basis: Vancouver 1,208.80 65.00 Jul 22 dn 44.30
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322