About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher in old crop months on Friday and in all months last week despite a stronger US Dollar that continued to hurt overall price action and as speculators worried that inflation and central bank actions to counter inflation could hurt demand. The trade is also worried about Chinese demand due to the Covid lockdowns there. New crop months were lower on Friday as some forecasts for showers were seen in Great Plains growing areas. Support had come from dry weather forecasts for the Great Plains and on news late last week that India has waived import taxes on Cotton until September. India will now try to increase imports as world and US Cotton is now lower cost to importers, but prices for imported Cotton are still very high. Production of the next US crop is at risk now due to dry weather in general for the western Great Plains. There was talk about less demand for the market in part from Fed moves to control the inflation now seen in the US and around the world. Traders are getting worried about a potential recession caused by Fed tightening. China could be imports due to Covid and is also closing down a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation. China has been buying even with the port closures and domestic difficulties caused by renewed Covid lockdowns. Traders are worried about Chinese demand moving forward.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 140.63 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,101 bales, from 1,101 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 16180 July. Support is at 14400, 14070, and 13760 July, with resistance of 15200, 15320 and 15440 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 26, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 269,240
: Positions :
: 67,876 10,456 59,159 43,471 182,003 79,010 9,226 249,516 260,845: 19,725 8,396
: Changes from: April 19, 2022 (Change in open interest: -6,705) :
: -3,260 -732 2,280 -1,852 -7,858 -2,234 -70 -5,065 -6,380: -1,640 -326
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 25.2 3.9 22.0 16.1 67.6 29.3 3.4 92.7 96.9: 7.3 3.1
: Total Traders: 281 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 127 36 83 50 63 48 18 248 181:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher last week on ideas and reports of less supplies and on inflation concerns. First Notice Day for May contracts should be today and some speculators were liquidating May long positions before the end of the week. Inflation and central bank actions to counter inflation have many concerns about how consumers will be affected and what the buying power of consumers might be in the end. The market now knows it is short Oranges and short juice production but is also worried about domestic demand destruction as pills are becoming cheaper again. The greening disease has taken its toll on the US crop and the previous Brazil crop was down significantly due to drought. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good, but it is drier now and some tree stress could develop soon. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures. The Florida Dept of Citrus said that FCOJ stocks are now 30.2% less than last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get isolated showers and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 164.00, 163.00, and 160.00 July, with resistance at 177.00, 189.00, and 195.00 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 26, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 14,376 :
: Positions :
: 1,876 11,742 2,806 0 5 3,938 0 22 1,062 86 1,629 :
: Changes from: April 19, 2022 :
: 137 -9 12 0 -7 -236 0 -54 -147 -232 156 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.1 81.7 19.5 0.0 0.0 27.4 0.0 0.2 7.4 0.6 11.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 57 :
: 13 14 6 0 . 22 0 . 10 . 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were lower to start last week, then rebounded and entered back into sideways trends. A stronger US Dollar and concerns about inflation continue and what the central banks might do to counter inflationary tendencies are also important. Arabica offers remain down as the Brazilian Real remains very strong, but there are still some Robusta offers hitting London. The US Dollar has also been very strong. Ideas are that demand could get hurt as inflation and central bank actions hurt buying power from consumers. Deliveries from Vietnam and Brazil Robusta are noted to be decreasing as the harvest is now complete. Indonesian offers are increasing due to plentiful stocks inside the country. Arabica deliveries from Brazil are less in part due to less production and in part due to a stronger Real that has cut prices paid to farmers inside the country. Less deliveries are reported from Vietnam now as producers have sold most of the crop and are holding the rest and waiting for higher prices. Good growing conditions for the next crop in Brazil are still around but flowering is reported to be uneven this year in at least some areas.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.118 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 196.72 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 18 delivery notices were tendered against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 376 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 218.00, 215.00, and 213.00 July, and resistance is at 225.00, 230.00 and 233.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2060, 2010, and 1990 July, and resistance is at 2130, 2140, and 2150 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 26, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 252,639
: Positions :
: 32,841 10,401 61,368 94,128 160,345 54,602 14,719 242,938 246,833: 9,701 5,806
: Changes from: April 19, 2022 (Change in open interest: -2,743) :
: 102 -244 -513 -1,494 -1,786 -302 447 -2,206 -2,096: -536 -647
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.0 4.1 24.3 37.3 63.5 21.6 5.8 96.2 97.7: 3.8 2.3
: Total Traders: 387 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 122 59 109 126 132 42 23 334 290:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 04/26/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
107,314 59,268 67,779 3,484 7,615 1,550
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 55.2% 63.2% 3.2% 7.1% 1.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
131 41 39 13 5 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
20,431 7,255 3,015 4,619 7,159 8,972
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
19.0% 6.8% 2.8% 4.3% 6.7% 8.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
26 17 6 7 10 14
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,975 3,969
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.6% 3.7%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were higher Friday and closed mixed for the week, with New York slightly higher and London slightly lower. Speculators were worried about inflation and what actions the central banks could take to combat it. Ideas are that consumer demand could be hurt, but the market was considered oversold and demand appeared. The US Dollar was strong and has been strong to drive up the price in local currencies of the importers and exporters, but the sell side knows futures have fallen and are holding. Increased offers from India and Thailand are expected if the market continues to rally. Pakistan is also increasing its offers due to good crops there. The US government is permitting refiners to blend 15% ethanol into the fuel mixtures instead of 10% for the coming Summer, but most of the Ethanol will come from Corn. India and Thailand expect improved crops this year. Thailand expects to produce about10 million tons of sugar this year, up 33% from last year. India said it could produce more than 9.0 million tons of Sugar. Brazil could also have better Sugarcane production this year but the strengthening Real implies that most of the refining will be for Ethanol and not Sugar.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1980, 2030, and 2100 July. Support is at 1910, 1870, and 1850 July and resistance is at 1950, 1990, and 2010 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 540.00 and 551.00 August. Support is at 518.00, 515.00, and 508.00 August and resistance is at 542.00, 548.00, and 554.00 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 26, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 974,124
: Positions :
: 148,129 47,346 174,521 243,665 636,951 315,647 61,499 881,963 920,317: 92,161 53,807
: Changes from: April 19, 2022 (Change in open interest: -65,527) :
: -19,544 -1,212 -1,708 -25,323 -64,128 -1,626 1,308 -48,202 -65,740: -17,326 213
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.2 4.9 17.9 25.0 65.4 32.4 6.3 90.5 94.5: 9.5 5.5
: Total Traders: 237 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 72 40 77 66 69 42 18 215 174:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 04/26/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
70,343 23,681 56,499 8,957 3,891 2,258
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 33.7% 80.3% 12.7% 5.5% 3.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
108 33 38 7 3 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
24,539 1,978 2,441 2,300 563 725
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
34.9% 2.8% 3.5% 3.3% 0.8% 1.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
31 7 12 9 3 6
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,442 1,988
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.7% 2.8%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week. The trends are now up on the daily charts and mixed on the weekly charts. The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa, but some are concerned about dry weather that could affect the yields for the midcrop harvest. Some showers are in the forecast for West Africa and have been for several weeks, but the precipitation was less than normal last week and net drying is reported. The weather is good in Southeast Asia. Ghana arrivals have been below year ago levels, but Ivory Coast arrivals are ahead of last year.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.023 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 219 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2600 and 2650 July. Support is at 2550, 2520, and 2500 July, with resistance at 2620, 2640, and 2680 July. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1860 and 1920 July. Support is at 1800, 1760, and 1740 July, with resistance at 1840, 1870, and 1900 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 26, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 290,934
: Positions :
: 49,161 50,034 68,551 102,298 140,255 56,349 22,772 276,359 281,612: 14,575 9,322
: Changes from: April 19, 2022 (Change in open interest: 12,176) :
: 5,534 16,627 4,993 4,328 -11,517 -1,447 1,389 13,408 11,491: -1,231 685
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.9 17.2 23.6 35.2 48.2 19.4 7.8 95.0 96.8: 5.0 3.2
: Total Traders: 240 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 72 73 69 53 39 30 20 195 166:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 04/26/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
295,100 161,387 182,840 25,267 37,679 21,320
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 54.7% 62.0% 8.6% 12.8% 7.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
132 48 44 11 8 12
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
32,857 8,106 16,309 11,207 549 25,028
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
11.1% 2.7% 5.5% 3.8% 0.2% 8.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
20 21 15 13 5 13
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
1,725 3,269
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.6% 1.1%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322