About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – May 2
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE May May 03, 2022 83 Apr 29, 2022
KC HRW WHEAT May May 03, 2022 100 Apr 28, 2022
OATS May May 03, 2022 37 Apr 27, 2022
WHEAT May May 03, 2022 968 Apr 28, 2022

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower, with Winter Wheat markets sharply lower on Friday due to some forecasts for light precipitation in the western Great Plains in the coming week and on reports of more Russian Wheat offers into the world market and Spring Wheat falling in sympathy with the Winter Wheat markets despite bad weather that is still in the forecast for US and Canadian growing areas. Trends are sideways in Chicago SRW and Minneapolis Spring and down in HRW. Russia have been offering into the world market at relatively cheap prices but the Wheat is moving from the Black Sea although a lot of ships are scared to go on those waters. Hard Red Winter Wheat was a little lower on forecasts for some light to moderate precipitation to fall in JHRW growing areas of the western Great Plains this week and more cold weather is forecast for the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies. The western US Great Plains remained too dry and crop conditions were very poor and the war continued in Ukraine with little if any ideas of a cease fire mentioned. Ports are closed in Ukraine but Russian shippers and exporters are offering and some sales are being reported at Black Sea ports despite the high insurance costs associated with the boats coming into the sea. Ukraine can rail the exports to the EU for shipment but the amount that can be moved is very limited. But, Romania is taking the Ukrainian grain and shipping it.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 1023, 1014, and 982 July, with resistance at 1081, 1107, and 1143 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 1091 and 1042 July. Support is at 1092, 1069, and 1050 July, with resistance at 1133, 1157, and 1182 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 1147, 1130, and 1115 July, and resistance is at 1189, 1208, and 1218 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 26, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 431,253
: Positions :
: 44,611 82,112 118,714 47,664 164,424 187,537 29,268 398,526 394,518: 32,728 36,735
: Changes from: April 19, 2022 (Change in open interest: -53,351) :
: -4,419 -4,964 -32,093 -3,902 -7,205 -9,755 -7,248 -50,169 -51,510: -3,182 -1,840
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.3 19.0 27.5 11.1 38.1 43.5 6.8 92.4 91.5: 7.6 8.5
: Total Traders: 348 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 83 78 114 86 116 50 23 288 275:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 26, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 195,409
: Positions :
: 32,776 20,863 33,396 33,243 114,063 72,469 7,066 171,884 175,389: 23,525 20,020
: Changes from: April 19, 2022 (Change in open interest: -16,096) :
: -302 3,815 -11,111 -1,028 -1,679 -2,657 -4,983 -15,097 -13,958: -998 -2,138
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.8 10.7 17.1 17.0 58.4 37.1 3.6 88.0 89.8: 12.0 10.2
: Total Traders: 232 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 52 34 52 67 94 36 17 182 175:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 26, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 73,326 :
: Positions :
: 27,763 57,699 1,820 553 492 19,038 770 596 5,811 663 1,884 :
: Changes from: April 19, 2022 :
: -1,838 -2,215 80 -560 -108 -1,535 64 -102 -47 -11 -1,077 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 37.9 78.7 2.5 0.8 0.7 26.0 1.1 0.8 7.9 0.9 2.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 106 :
: 45 46 5 . 5 18 5 5 9 5 4 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher in reaction to the slow progress seen in Rice planting and emergence in the US. The slow progress and wet and cold conditions in Arkansas have many looking for a lower planted area and all planted area is expected to be less, anyway, due to high input costs against the price of Rice. The overall rally is expected to continue and more contract highs are very possible. It looks like supplies are tight and demand is holding together in this market. The cash market is showing that domestic mill business is around everywhere in light to moderate volumes. Export sales have been weaker in the last few weeks. Producer sales are reported to have been way ahead of average early in the marketing year so stocks on hand in first hands are reported to be lower than normal.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1700, 1675, and 1658 July and resistance is at 1752, 1764, and 1776 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 26, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 11,722 :
: Positions :
: 5,412 8,510 257 0 1 1,535 467 1 497 1,073 961 :
: Changes from: April 19, 2022 :
: 123 114 -16 0 -2 29 0 -1 85 -100 25 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 46.2 72.6 2.2 0.0 0.0 13.1 4.0 0.0 4.2 9.2 8.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 57 :
: 20 18 . 0 . 12 . . 6 7 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed higher last week again in response to cold and wet Midwestern weather and on demand ideas. Oats were lower. The price strength for the nearby months as better demand for American Corn due to the loss of export potential from Ukraine went against the cheaper South American offers. China bought another 1.088 million tons this week and that brings the three week total to about 3.5 million tons. New crop futures spent the day higher on forecasts for cold weather for the US Midwest. More rain should arrive in the Midwest over the weekend and could continue next week. The crop planting progress is slow already and the market will start to worry about yield loss soon. It already thinks there is reduced planted area because of the March planning intentions reports from USDA. The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter. The ports remain closed and Ukraine can rail out to the EU in limited amounts. China has a Covid outbreak again and has closed some cities and some ports in response. The moves are harsh but China has a no tolerance policy about the pandemic. The closings of cities and ports will hurt the economy as people can’t make or spend money and hurt imports as there will be fewer places to unload cargoes. However, China has been a very big buyer of US Corn over the last couple of weeks as they need the feed and Ukraine cannot currently offer any supply. President Biden has said he will permit the use of higher ethanol blends in gasoline this Summer in an effort to control inflation and high fuel prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 843 and 876 July. Support is at 810, 799, and 781 July, and resistance is at 822, 828, and 834 July. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 662 and 626 July. Support is at 657, 653, and 647 July, and resistance is at 681, 698, and 709 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 26, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,157,559
: Positions :
: 333,513 61,271 515,286 506,804 1,227,018 591,236 105,583 1,946,840 1,909,159: 210,719 248,400
: Changes from: April 19, 2022 (Change in open interest: -205,682) :
: -9,064 4,672 -86,997 -76,066 -97,094 -14,935 -14,307 -187,061 -193,726: -18,621 -11,957
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.5 2.8 23.9 23.5 56.9 27.4 4.9 90.2 88.5: 9.8 11.5
: Total Traders: 910 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 235 102 203 375 462 55 28 744 726:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were a little lower and Soybean Meal closed lower last week while Soybean Oil closed higher on the reduced production from South America and on increasing concerns in the US about the cold and wet Midwest weather keeping farmers from the fields for planting. The weekly chart trends are sideways for Soybeans, down for Soybean Meal, and up for Soybean Oil. Ideas are that the cold and wet weather now could mean less Corn and more Soybeans get planted. Traders are worried about demand moving forward as the US Dollar is very strong and China is locking down due to Covid. Demand has been strong even with a slower export pace from the US with NOPA showing a higher crush rate. Soybean Oil has been the leader to the upside and was higher yesterday. The market had been told last week that all Palm Oil exports from Indonesia were banned.. President Biden has said he will support expanded use of bio fuels this Summer in an effort to control higher fuel prices. More sanctions are now threatened for Russia due to what the world is seeing in Ukraine right now. There are still worries about Chinese demand because of Covid lockdowns there. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America and bought Soybeans again yesterday. They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs. Most of the current buying is for next year. Ideas are that the Chinese economy could slow down due to the Covid lockdowns there and cause the country to purchase less Soybeans in the world market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1657, 1636, and 1619 July, and resistance is at 1700, 1705, and 1734 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 425.00 July. Support is at 429.00, 423.00, and 421.00 July, and resistance is at 441.00 450.00, and 461.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 8800, 8950, and 9320 July. Support is at 8320, 8200, and 7800 July, with resistance at 8760, 8800, and 8920 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 26, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 904,744
: Positions :
: 141,427 43,629 204,444 250,706 521,162 246,775 47,301 843,352 816,536: 61,392 88,208
: Changes from: April 19, 2022 (Change in open interest: -100,274) :
: -3,764 1,990 -56,303 -17,731 -37,409 -17,062 -4,816 -94,860 -96,537: -5,414 -3,737
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.6 4.8 22.6 27.7 57.6 27.3 5.2 93.2 90.3: 6.8 9.7
: Total Traders: 636 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 181 86 176 210 275 54 23 513 511:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 26, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 440,799
: Positions :
: 90,401 21,237 73,221 105,446 308,696 132,908 15,994 401,976 419,149: 38,823 21,650
: Changes from: April 19, 2022 (Change in open interest: -30,534) :
: 6,701 2,009 -21,589 -3,767 -5,016 -6,626 -6,178 -25,281 -30,774: -5,254 240
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.5 4.8 16.6 23.9 70.0 30.2 3.6 91.2 95.1: 8.8 4.9
: Total Traders: 291 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 100 33 73 81 90 42 19 251 195:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 26, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 424,438
: Positions :
: 79,039 14,765 62,683 100,115 315,890 128,737 6,402 370,574 399,741: 53,865 24,697
: Changes from: April 19, 2022 (Change in open interest: -42,030) :
: -3,624 2,565 -19,659 -7,074 -22,512 -5,413 -2,801 -35,770 -42,406: -6,260 377
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.6 3.5 14.8 23.6 74.4 30.3 1.5 87.3 94.2: 12.7 5.8
: Total Traders: 271 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 73 36 64 89 100 37 11 231 186:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher last week as the Indonesian export ban supported buying interest in Malaysia and also in Chicago Soybean Oil. The markets were closed today for a holiday. The Indonesian ban on Palm Oil products imports is now in effect and a ban on Crude Palm Oil exports is coming, according to the Indonesian government. The industry estimates the ban could last through the month of May, but the government has made no such prediction. Hopes for better demand from India keep the market supported. A new Covid outbreak is reported in China and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports. The economy could slow down and affect demand. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was higher last week and made new highs for the move. It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting. StatsCan said that Canadian farmers intend to reduce planted area for Canola this year and use the area to plant Wheat instead. There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well. Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight. Supplies are not likely to improve much with the projections for reduced planted area this week from StatsCan.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with no objectives. Support is at 1200.00, 1175.00, and 1155.00 July, with resistance at 1224.00, 1236.00, and 1248.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 6800, 6530, and 6180 July, with resistance at 7130, 7200, and 7320 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 26, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 152,468 :
: Positions :
: 74,243 120,508 2,349 3,183 640 52,767 4,713 6,697 4,064 6,121 8,866 :
: Changes from: April 19, 2022 :
: -5,458 -6,599 24 -49 -1,309 -241 84 -1,203 768 1,668 -2,139 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 48.7 79.0 1.5 2.1 0.4 34.6 3.1 4.4 2.7 4.0 5.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 299 :
: 41 65 4 5 . 67 11 13 63 67 49 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May
98 May
250 May 150 May
130 May

June
95 July
220 July
135 July
145 July

July
94 July
210 July
80 July
136 July

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322