About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Apr 29
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE May May 02, 2022 394 Apr 28, 2022
KC HRW WHEAT May May 02, 2022 27 Apr 22, 2022
OATS May May 02, 2022 1 Mar 04, 2022
WHEAT May May 02, 2022 12 Mar 22, 2022

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Apr 28
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics
for week ended April 24, 2022. Figures in thousands of metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 2827.8 718.8 301.7 331.8 49.2 1483.7 284.2 373.5 6964.2
Week Ago 2932.0 804.5 299.7 355.1 48.3 1514.8 275.3 384.1 7195.0
Year Ago 2600.7 728.2 360.0 455.7 61.1 1646.1 363.1 193.5 7016.3
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 230.3 37.4 29.3 29.5 4.1 191.0 17.4 12.4 609.8
Week Ago 255.4 30.5 30.7 29.8 1.7 213.4 17.2 5.1 632.5
To Date 11874.7 2010.3 1567.9 3180.7 176.1 11757.2 1630.2 546.6 34947.6
Year Ago 16533.3 4890.4 2260.0 4168.3 402.2 16640.7 3258.4 300.5 51782.6
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 282.6 18.8 0.0 3.9 0.0 55.5 10.0 86.5 538.9
Week Ago 261.7 40.9 0.9 35.3 0.0 43.2 50.7 72.7 559.9
To Date 10670.5 2302.0 156.5 1868.7 27.0 4976.1 1038.0 1321.1 27104.0
Year Ago 16790.2 5557.2 509.9 3008.2 197.7 9067.1 2234.5 948.6 43928.3
EXPORTS
This Week 218.9 131.0 14.5 18.6 1.5 43.1 1.0 75.7 525.4
Week Ago 174.1 34.0 7.6 2.1 1.1 55.9 50.4 113.3 440.6
To Date 8294.9 1859.4 885.4 1790.7 69.7 4270.7 1045.0 1041.1 22458.1
Year Ago 14547.1 4590.8 1461.6 3129.6 258.0 8595.4 2152.8 823.1 39938.7
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 115.2 17.1 17.7 30.9 1.4 188.5 7.3 64.0 487.9
Week Ago 37.7 4.6 10.1 25.8 2.3 185.4 4.9 57.2 341.5
To Date 3014.8 328.9 642.6 1345.9 52.6 6879.1 219.9 1967.7 15902.5
Year Ago 2954.9 423.6 579.3 820.8 45.6 7909.5 140.7 596.4 14733.9
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canaryseed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower, with Winter Wheat markets a little lower on some forecasts for light precipitation in the western Great Plains in the coming week and on reports of more Russian Wheat offers into the world market and Spring Wheat falling despite bad weather that is still in the forecast for US and Canadian growing areas. Russia have been offering into the world market at relatively cheap prices but the Wheat is moving from the Black Sea although a lot of ships are scared to go on those waters. Hard Red Winter Wheat was a little lower on forecasts for some light to moderate precipitation to fall in JHRW growing areas of the western Great Plains this week and more cold weather is forecast for the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies. The western US Great Plains remained too dry and crop conditions were very poor and the war continued in Ukraine with little if any ideas of a cease fire mentioned. Ports are closed in Ukraine but Russian shippers and exporters are offering and some sales are being reported at Black Sea ports despite the high insurance costs associated with the boats coming into the sea. Ukraine can rail the exports to the EU for shipment but the amount that can be moved is very limited. But, Romania is taking the Ukrainian grain and shipping it.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 1077, 1056, and 1023 July, with resistance at 1107, 1143, and 1190 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 1133, 1112, and 1092 July, with resistance at 1182, 1202, and 12459 July. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 1222 and 1263 July. Support is at 1168, 1147, and 1130 July, and resistance is at 1208, 1218, and 1240 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher reaction to the slow progress seen in Rice planting and emergence in the US. The overall rally is expected to continue and new contract highs are very possible. It looks like supplies are tight and demand is holding together in this market. The cash market is showing that domestic mill business is around everywhere in light volumes. Producer sales are reported to have been way ahead of average early in the marketing year so stocks on hand in first hands are reported to be lower than normal. Growing conditions are considered good for crops right now although it has been a little cold.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1675, 1658, and 1635 July and resistance is at 1731, 1740, and 1752 July.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed higher again in response to cold and wet Midwestern weather and on demand ideas. The price strength for the nearby months as better demand for American Corn due to the loss of export potential from Ukraine went against the cheaper South American offers. China bought another 1.088 million tons this week and that brings the three week total to about 3.5 million tons. New crop futures spent the day higher on forecasts for cold weather for the US Midwest. More rain should arrive in the Midwest over the weekend and could continue next week. The crop planting progress is slow already and the market will start to worry about yield loss soon. It already thinks there is reduced planted area because of the March planning intentions reports from USDA. The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter. The ports remain closed and Ukraine can rail out to the EU in limited amounts. China has a Covid outbreak again and has closed some cities and some ports in response. The moves are harsh but China has a no tolerance policy about the pandemic. The closings of cities and ports will hurt the economy as people can’t make or spend money and hurt imports as there will be fewer places to unload cargoes. However, China has been a very big buyer of US Corn over the last couple of weeks as they need the feed and Ukraine cannot currently offer any supply. President Biden has said he will permit the use of higher ethanol blends in gasoline this Summer in an effort to control inflation and high fuel prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 843 and 876 July. Support is at 810, 799, and 781 July, and resistance is at 822, 828, and 834 July. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 662 and 626 July. Support is at 657, 653, and 647 July, and resistance is at 681, 698, and 709 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed lower while Soybean Oil closed higher on the reduced production from South America and on increasing concerns in the US about the cold and wet Midwest weather keeping farmers from the fields for planting. Ideas are that the cold and wet weather now could mean less Corn and more Soybeans get planted. Traders are worried about demand moving forward as the US Dollar is very strong and China is locking down due to Covid. Demand has been strong even with a slower export pace from the US with NOPA showing a higher crush rate. Soybean Oil has been the leader to the upside and was higher yesterday. The market had been told last week that all Palm Oil exports from Indonesia were banned.. President Biden has said he will support expanded use of bio fuels this Summer in an effort to control higher fuel prices. More sanctions are now threatened for Russia due to what the world is seeing in Ukraine right now. There are still worries about Chinese demand because of Covid lockdowns there. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America and bought Soybeans again yesterday. They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs. Most of the current buying is for next year. Ideas are that the Chinese economy could slow down due to the Covid lockdowns there and cause the country to purchase less Soybeans in the world market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1657, 1636, and 1619 July, and resistance is at 1700, 1705, and 1734 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 425.00 July. Support is at 429.00, 423.00, and 421.00 July, and resistance is at 441.00 450.00, and 461.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 8800, 8950, and 9320 July. Support is at 8320, 8200, and 7800 July, with resistance at 8680, 8800, and 8920 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today as the Indonesian export ban continued to support buying interest in Malaysia. The Indonesian ban on Palm Oil products imports is now in effect and a ban on Crude Palm Oil exports is coming, according to the Indonesian government. Hopes for better demand from India keep the market supported. A new Covid outbreak is reported in China and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports. The economy could slow down and affect demand. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was a little lower along with Chicago Soybeans. It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting. StatsCan said that Canadian farmers intend to reduce planted area for Canola this year and use the area to plant Wheat instead. There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well. Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight. Supplies are not likely to improve much with the projections for reduced planted area this week from StatsCan.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with no objectives. Support is at 1200.00, 1175.00, and 1155.00 July, with resistance at 1224.00, 1236.00, and 1248.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 6800, 6530, and 6180 July, with resistance at 7130, 7200, and 7320 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May
98 May
250 May 150 May
130 May

June
95 July
220 July
135 July
145 July

July
94 July
210 July
80 July
136 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 28
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures for April 28, 2022.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 1,203.80 -14.80 May 22 up 14.00
Basis: Thunder Bay 1,262.00 55.00 Jul 22 dn 1.80
Basis: Vancouver 1,272.00 65.00 Jul 22 dn 1.80
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 29
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
May 1877.50 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 1837.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1642.50 +55.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1517.50 +30.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1880.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 1840.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1645.00 +55.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1520.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1770.00 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1550.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 7750.00 +200.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 495.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.352)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 29
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 127,681 lots, or 7.82 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 6,066 6,169 6,066 6,150 6,066 6,134 68 827 6,469
Jul-22 6,155 6,227 6,132 6,193 6,124 6,180 56 92,393 107,510
Sep-22 5,997 6,080 5,989 6,059 5,986 6,039 53 23,975 30,351
Nov-22 5,840 5,877 5,804 5,862 5,809 5,843 34 10,035 16,280
Jan-23 5,780 5,832 5,768 5,815 5,774 5,796 22 379 2,371
Mar-23 5,776 5,799 5,743 5,799 5,767 5,774 7 72 391
Corn
Turnover: 771,370 lots, or 23.19 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 2,904 2,945 2,896 2,943 2,887 2,912 25 59,943 125,017
Jul-22 2,968 2,994 2,959 2,994 2,955 2,971 16 138,221 364,947
Sep-22 3,031 3,046 3,013 3,044 3,009 3,027 18 511,906 1,334,863
Nov-22 2,999 3,016 2,987 3,010 2,986 2,995 9 19,253 64,153
Jan-23 3,020 3,026 2,964 3,026 3,003 3,011 8 27,281 86,611
Mar-23 3,032 3,038 3,016 3,035 3,021 3,024 3 14,766 24,976
Soymeal
Turnover: 939,862 lots, or 37.92 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 4,166 4,192 4,135 4,180 4,129 4,153 24 16,471 5,340
Jul-22 4,208 4,208 4,144 4,193 4,153 4,167 14 62,496 217,311
Aug-22 4,139 4,142 4,096 4,139 4,101 4,113 12 18,409 141,648
Sep-22 4,065 4,078 4,025 4,073 4,030 4,049 19 713,024 1,264,680
Nov-22 3,993 4,013 3,960 4,011 3,955 3,981 26 29,258 84,460
Dec-22 3,914 3,940 3,889 3,935 3,884 3,909 25 18,326 27,806
Jan-23 3,850 3,865 3,813 3,861 3,809 3,834 25 70,281 232,380
Mar-23 3,695 3,718 3,667 3,718 3,674 3,687 13 11,597 8,863
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,097,675 lots, or 13.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 14,012 15,240 14,012 15,240 13,856 14,832 976 12,137 2,545
Jun-22 13,540 14,098 13,476 13,956 13,440 13,852 412 54,546 27,355
Jul-22 12,898 13,420 12,878 13,300 12,868 13,192 324 18,913 56,916
Aug-22 12,380 12,834 12,344 12,678 12,324 12,618 294 10,599 31,515
Sep-22 11,950 12,392 11,888 12,290 11,904 12,148 244 970,098 316,548
Oct-22 11,686 12,070 11,642 12,052 11,660 11,898 238 7,302 12,589
Nov-22 11,552 11,804 11,552 11,804 11,654 11,688 34 73 294
Dec-22 11,482 11,616 11,472 11,586 11,380 11,544 164 32 124
Jan-23 11,360 11,528 11,324 11,430 11,310 11,404 94 23,879 33,087
Feb-23 11,340 11,356 11,262 11,292 11,188 11,330 142 24 72
Mar-23 11,100 11,170 11,042 11,062 11,024 11,104 80 32 115
Apr-23 11,020 11,070 10,964 11,022 10,968 11,038 70 40 30
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 691,913 lots, or 79.50 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 11,482 11,724 11,470 11,654 11,482 11,576 94 11,921 2,858
Jul-22 11,488 11,722 11,488 11,680 11,518 11,636 118 42,861 86,759
Aug-22 11,442 11,646 11,432 11,562 11,442 11,572 130 25,281 55,846
Sep-22 11,418 11,580 11,372 11,524 11,382 11,482 100 569,598 433,314
Nov-22 11,308 11,470 11,282 11,410 11,262 11,386 124 21,668 26,432
Dec-22 11,234 11,412 11,234 11,350 11,216 11,346 130 12,485 7,091
Jan-23 11,216 11,374 11,192 11,310 11,190 11,290 100 8,075 19,148
Mar-23 11,128 11,188 11,066 11,066 11,030 11,138 108 24 206
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322