About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Apr 28
For the week ended Apr 21, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 32.3 124.3 19296.9 25593.2 2400.8 2265.5
hrw -2.8 -10.8 7490.0 8724.6 1017.8 573.9
srw 1.8 4.5 2854.1 1809.8 369.9 591.5
hrs 22.2 67.5 5421.3 7740.8 700.1 635.4
white 5.4 63.2 3335.9 6651.0 312.5 400.3
durum 5.7 0.0 195.7 667.0 0.5 64.4
corn 866.8 843.4 57515.4 67719.6 19383.4 4206.8
soybeans 481.3 580.0 57577.2 61119.4 10849.1 10741.3
soymeal 203.0 0.0 9654.1 9423.5 2666.2 370.4
soyoil 3.5 0.0 650.4 662.8 134.5 0.0
upland cotton 121.1 49.5 14491.0 15149.4 6325.1 2846.1
pima cotton 13.0 0.5 464.2 761.5 132.3 40.6
sorghum 12.5 0.0 6716.9 7157.9 2048.4 0.0
barley -0.1 0.0 20.4 29.5 5.7 8.6
rice 16.4 0.0 2604.9 2942.7 487.0 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mixed, with Winter Wheat markets a little lower on some forecasts for light precipitation in the western Great Plains in the coming week and on reports of more Russian Wheat offers into the world market and Spring Wheat higher as bad weather is still in the forecast for US and Canadian growing areas. Russia have been offering into the world market at relatively cheap prices but the Wheat is moving from the Black Sea and a lot of ships are scared to go on those waters. Hard Red Winter Wheat was a little lower on forecasts for some very light precipitation to fall in JHRW growing areas of the western Great Plains this week and more cold weather is forecast for the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies. The western US Great Plains remained too dry and crop conditions were very poor and the war continued in Ukraine with little if any ideas of a cease fire mentioned. Ports are closed in Ukraine but Russian shippers and exporters are offering and some sales are being reported at Black Sea ports despite the high insurance costs associated with the boats coming into the sea. Ukraine can rail the exports to the EU for shipment but the amount that can be moved is very limited. But, Romania is taking the Ukrainian grain and shipping it.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 1045, 1017, and 1014 May, with resistance at 1098, 1135, and 1156 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 1129, 1106, and 1090 May, with resistance at 1173, 1200, and 1242 May. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 1222, 1237, and 1263 May. Support is at 1168, 1144, and 1128 May, and resistance is at 1200, 1207, and 1227 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was mixed in consolidation trading as there was no further reaction to the slow progress seen in Rice planting and emergence in the US. The overall rally is expected to continue and new contract highs are very possible. It looks like supplies are tight and demand is holding together in this market. The cash market is showing that domestic mill business is around everywhere in light volumes. Producer sales are reported to have been way ahead of average early in the marketing year so stocks on hand in first hands are reported to be lower than normal. Growing conditions are considered good for crops right now although it has been a little cold.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1787 and 1847 May. Support is at 1655, 1627, and 1600 May and resistance is at 1689, 1700, and 1712 May.
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CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed higher again in response to cold and wet Midwestern weather and on demand ideas. The price strength for the nearby months as better demand for American Corn due to the loss of export potential from Ukraine went against the cheaper South American offers. New crop futures spent the day higher on forecasts for cold weather for the US Midwest. It will be drier, but not dry as more rain should arrive over the weekend. The crop planting progress is slow already and the market will start to worry about yield loss soon. It already thinks there is reduced planted area because of the March planning intentions reports from USDA. The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter. The ports remain closed and Ukraine can rail out to the EU in limited amounts. China has a Covid outbreak again and has closed some cities and some ports in response. The moves are harsh but China has a no tolerance policy about the pandemic. The closings of cities and ports will hurt the economy as people can’t make or spend money and hurt imports as there will be fewer places to unload cargoes. However, China has been a very big buyer of US Corn over the last couple of weeks as they need the feed and Ukraine cannot currently offer any supply. President Biden has said he will permit the use of higher ethanol blends in gasoline this Summer in an effort to control inflation and high fuel prices.
Overnight News: China bought 1.088 million tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 848 and 884 May. Support is at 802, 785, and 768 May, and resistance is at 820, 826, and 832 May. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 663, 622, and 616 May. Support is at 655, 640, and 636 May, and resistance is at 7105, 714, and 724 May.

DJ U.S. Ethanol Production Rises, Stocks Drop
By Kirk Maltais
Daily ethanol production in the U.S. rose for the week ended April 22, while inventories fell–the first time in nearly a year this has happened.
In its latest weekly report, the EIA said that U.S. ethanol daily production rose to a rate of 963,000 barrels a day, up from 947,000 barrels predicted last week. This week’s figure falls within the predictions of analysts surveyed by Dow Jones this week, who had forecast a range of 927,000 barrels a day to 980,000 barrels a day.
Ethanol stocks fell for the week–dropping to 23.97 million barrels versus 24.34 million barrels reported last week. It was the lowest stocks have been since January. Analysts had forecast stocks to fall between 23.64 million barrels and 24.54 million barrels.
This week’s report is the first time since May 2021 that production has risen while inventories dropped, said Terry Reilly of Futures International in a note following the report’s release. In trading Wednesday, corn futures on the CBOT are up 1.3% at nearly $8.12 a bushel.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed mixed. with Soybean Meal lower and Soybean Oil higher on the reduced production from South America and on increasing concerns in the US about the cold and wet Midwest weather keeping farmers from the fields for planting. Traders are worried about demand moving forward as the US Dollar is very strong and China is locking down due to Covid. Demand has been strong even with a slower export pace from the US with NOPA showing a higher crush rate. Soybean Oil has been the leader to the upside and was higher yesterday on mixed news from Indonesia that it will permit Crude Palm Oil exports but not exports of refined products. It said it could cut off Crude Oil exports soon if domestic supplies do not increase and if domestic prices stay elevated. The market had been told last week that all Palm Oil exports from Indonesia were banned.. President Biden has said he will support expanded use of bio fuels this Summer in an effort to control higher fuel prices. More sanctions are now threatened for Russia due to what the world is seeing in Ukraine right now. There are still worries about Chinese demand because of Covid lockdowns there. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America and bought Soybeans again yesterday. They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs. Most of the current buying is for next year. Ideas are that the Chinese economy could slow down due to the Covid lockdowns there and cause the country to purchase less Soybeans in the world market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1700, 1686, and 165281May, and resistance is at 1757, 1768, and 1780 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 441.00 and 437.00 May. Support is at 436.00, 429.00, and 425.00 May, and resistance is at 459.00 465.00, and 473.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 8920 and 9380 May. Support is at 8460, 8020, and 7890 May, with resistance at 8960, 9080, and 9200 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today on what appeared to be mostly speculative long liquidation. The Indonesian ban on Palm Oil products imports is now in effect and a ban on Crude Palm Oil exports is coming, according to the Indonesian government. Hopes for better demand from India keep the market supported. A new Covid outbreak is reported in China and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports. The economy could slow down and affect demand. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was higher along with Chicago and Malaysia and on word of the changes in the Indonesian Palm Oil export ban. This market turned trends up earlier and built on the trend higher yesterday. It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting. StatsCan said that Canadian farmers intend to reduce planted area for Canola this year and use the area to plant Wheat instead. There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well. Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight. Supplies are not likely to improve much with the projections for reduced planted area this week from StatCan.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 1226.00, 1259.00, and 1268.00 May. Support is at 1200.00, 1190.00, and 11670.00 May, with resistance at 1221.00, 1232.00, and 1244.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 6800, 6530, and 6180 July, with resistance at 7200, 7320, and 7440 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March 100 May 250 May 135 May 132 May
April 100 May 250 May 135 May 132 May
May 103 July 230 July 120 July 142 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 27
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures for April 27, 2022.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 1,189.80 -11.10 May 22 up 27.70
Basis: Thunder Bay 1,263.80 55.00 Jul 22 up 14.00
Basis: Vancouver 1,273.80 65.00 Jul 22 up 14.00
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 28
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
May 1847.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 1817.50 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1587.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1487.50 -20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1850.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 1820.00 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1590.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1490.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1730.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1545.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 7550.00 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 497.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.336)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322